40 Years to Fix, 27 Minutes to Care - Reinventing Fire

[iNow]

This is a pretty solid talk, and the speaker is good (which helps). Does the plan presented suffer from any fatal gaps or flaws? Do you think there are better approaches? Is it feasible? Do we have a choice?

[Tim the plumber]

I'll do this in terms of bits I disagree with and then the good bits.

 

Wrong bits;

 

1 Fossil fuels, there's loads left. 64 years of proven oil reserves. Loads more coal. We ain't going to run out any time this centuary.

 

2 Windturbines are rubbish. They are about as good as they are going to get and they are just not as good as coal.

 

3 Securtiy of energy by using electric cars, is saddly a pipe dream at present. They stuff you need for the batteries is in the Congo or other unstable areas.

 

4 Less traveling due to us getting smarter about where we need to go: Saddly the world is "run" by incompetant stupid humans. We are not going to get cleverer all of a sudden.

 

5 If you can save all this money by redesinging the pipework why was it put in like that in the first place? The answer is the same as above. We are going to carry on being as stupid as ever. Unlucky.

 

6 Forget terrorist as the main problem of blackouts. Rember Enron??? Corperate corruption is more of a worry. Won't it be good when solar actually works.

 

7 Climate change is nothing to worry about. It is not going to happen to any large degree, and it would be nice if the world's temperature raised by a degree, saddly it isn't going to happen because it never was and solar power will arrive and we stop digging up coal.

 

Now the Good bits;

 

1 Are solar pannels really as cheap as grid electric? Fantastic if they are!!! As soon as there is at all a clear price advantage over normal power supply we will all be having them! Forget 2050, it will be 2018!! The coal plants will only be needed at night. I saw some solar pannels which said that that they worked at night using IR..... ?!!!

 

2 The wealth of the world will rocket as soon as these new tecnologies arrive. Perhaps that is why we have a world recession at the moment, the smart money is waiting for the next gold rush.

[EdEarl]

The video is consistent with things I have learned.

 

The power company in San Antonio, Texas is using renewable power sources more an more, because they are less expensive. They are a corporation, not owned by the city. They have been increasing their renewable portfolio for many years, and recently installed a 500MW solar PV farm and decommissioned a coal plant.

 

Elon Musk started Pay Pal and sold it. He has now started three companies, Tesla Motors, SolarX and SpaceX (check out interviews with him on youtube). Tesla makes only electric cars, a sports car that outperforms most other sports cars and can go 250 miles on a single charge, and a sedan similar to other S series cars which also can go 250 miles on a charge. He is now making a less expensive electric designed for the mass market. Several people have stated that electrics use less energy and cause less CO2 emissions, even if they are charged with electricity from a coal powered plant. I consider him a modern day Howard Hughes because he is chief scientist for his companies. Although, he is different from Howard because he seems happily married and not crazy.

 

Corporations are madly reducing their energy costs and installing solar panels on roofs, because it saves them money.

 

Earthship homes need no connection to the grid, and have been built in several countries.

If you search the internet, you can find all kinds of stuff about energy savings and alternative technologies, and I don't mean things done by amateurs...though there is a lot of that, too. Here are a few links.

 

http://www.cps-satx.com/Services/Generate_Deliver_Energy/Solar_Power/Blue_Wing_Solar_Farm/

 

http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/A5FMY-K-o0Q/mqdefault.jpg

 

http://news.walmart.com/news-archive/2005/01/07/some-facts-about-wal-marts-energy-conservation-measures

 

http://prakash-t.hubpages.com/hub/Top-10-Energy-Efficient-Skyscrapers

 

http://earthship.com/

 

 

PS: Maybe CO2 will be reduced as new deserts are reclaimed for grassland.

Edited May 17, 2013 by EdEarl

[iNow]

1 Fossil fuels, there's loads left. 64 years of proven oil reserves. Loads more coal.

 

Even if your numbers are right, and even if they account for the rapidly growing populations and economies in the east, that still misses the point that these are known to significantly influence the climate as a whole.

 

2 Windturbines are rubbish.

 

Thank you for your objective and rational feedback. Very useful in discussions like this.

 

3 Securtiy of energy by using electric cars, is saddly a pipe dream at present.

 

That pipe narrows every day as companies like Tesla demonstrate just how great a battery powered car can be, and major manufacturers like Toyota and Nissan and even Ford are quickly following suit.

 

Saddly the world is "run" by incompetant stupid humans. We are not going to get cleverer all of a sudden.

 

Again, thank you for the objective and rational feedback. Very helpful in discussions like this.

 

5 If you can save all this money by redesinging the pipework why was it put in like that in the first place? The answer is the same as above. We are going to carry on being as stupid as ever.

 

Nothing you've said here prevents us from going in and doing it right.

 

Won't it be good when solar actually works.

 

Solar does actually work already.

 

7 Climate change is nothing to worry about. It is not going to happen to any large degree

 

It's quite difficult to take you seriously when your connection with the reality around us is so tenuous. Please do try to avoid making such silly and easily falsified assertions like this. If facts and logic don't matter to you on this subject, then it will be difficult for us to use facts and logic to help educate you on why your comment here is wrong.

 

Forget 2050, it will be 2018!! The coal plants will only be needed at night.

 

I agree that the sooner solar becomes cheaper the sooner we can get off fossil fuels, and the prices get closer to grid parity every day... especially as countries like Germany and China invest so heavily in them. This process of replacement would go even quicker if we in the US would stop subsidizing oil.

 

Further, we should note that we don't need coal to burn for power at night. That's just a lazy way out that ignores how badly coal pollutes our air. What we need are better batteries to store the energy from the day, perhaps coupled with nuclear.

 

2 The wealth of the world will rocket as soon as these new tecnologies arrive. Perhaps that is why we have a world recession at the moment, the smart money is waiting for the next gold rush.

 

There are many reasons why we are in a recession, and it's not because people are holding on to their money waiting for better technologies in which to invest. More supported is the recognition that our banks were over leveraged, home prices were bloated, micro transactions in the markets drove spikes and troughs in massive sectors, and when the shock of a few major banks and insurers hit then demand for goods and services plummeted. This drop in demand was self-reinforcing as those businesses losing money also could not spend hence causing other businesses (where people who used to have money would go to spend it) to also not spend... One persons savings is another persons loss, and everybody began saving at the same time... pulling back and tightening their budgets all at once. It's a self-reinforcing downward cycle, much like an influx of funds has a multiplier effect and can really jump start the economy, but that's another discussion.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

PS: Maybe CO2 will be reduced as new deserts are reclaimed for grassland.

 

I saw this talk a while back. It was good, and frankly a little surprising in the conclusion that more cattle grazing in smart patterns would help reduce climate and improve local agriculture.

[EdEarl]

I saw this talk a while back. It was good, and frankly a little surprising in the conclusion that more cattle grazing in smart patterns would help reduce climate and improve local agriculture.

 

Clearly more grazing is possible after the land is recovered, because there is more to eat. But, when the land is desert, it may mean a little grazing with many cattle to trample the existing grass flat to provide mulch and add fertilizer. He didn't explain in enough detail to really understand the process completely.

[Tim the plumber]

iNow,

 

I would use more copied and quoted stuff from your post but I don't seem to be able to copy and paste here.

 

1 Batteries are said to be a good answer to the problem of political instability affecting oil supply. The trouble is that the resources for these batteries are often found in even more unstable places, like Congo.

 

2 Solar actually working means that it is the cheapest solution to a power need. I know we have ones now which are very cool but only once they get to be better at making electricity than coal will they explode across every roof. I think we are almost there.

 

3 Climate change; I can give you the links to the IPCC's report if you like (worst case sea level rise less than knee high). However since we agree, I think, that within the next few decades at most solar will have mostly replaced coal burning as the power of the day it's a distant non-problem that will never happen at all.

 

4 Better batteries; Great! Have you got the answer up your sleeve? If not then we will have to burn coal at night. At least untill we get someting which will do it better than coal. (Geothermal? Stored water, hydro power?)

 

This centuary looks like being the one humanity comes of age in. I can't wait! The new tecnologies and internationalisation of the world (such as this) are looking like they will be may factors more of a leap than everything we have done so far!

[EdEarl]

iNow,

 

I would use more copied and quoted stuff from your post but I don't seem to be able to copy and paste here.

 

 

4 Better batteries; Great! Have you got the answer up your sleeve? If not then we will have to burn coal at night. At least untill we get someting which will do it better than coal. (Geothermal? Stored water, hydro power?)

 

Lithium batteries seem to be the best for mobile application, and supplies appear to be available for a while. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Terrestrial

 

Liquid metal batteries seem to be the best for stationary, grid use, and recent developments are promising. See:

 

=Ed=

[iNow]

You can also store the heat from solar towers in molten salts and draw electricity at night. It's less about "batteries" as we know them today, and more about storage for later use.

 

Also, sea level rise is not the only thing that is changing. So too is availability of arable crop-lands, drought, drinkable water availability, and intense strange storms. If you think global warming is not a big deal, you should consider the idea that your sources of information are not terribly trustworthy on this topic... To the point where they are either outright lying to you or just ignorant and incompetent when it comes to speaking on this issue.

 

We're already seeing the beginning of the changes with extreme weather events... Later snows, earlier high temperatures, more tornadoes, worse droughts, more intense hurricanes, and hurricanes in places not previously susceptible to them... While I wish burying my head in the sand would change those facts, unfortunately it does not.

[EdEarl]

You can also store the heat from solar towers in molten salts and draw electricity at night. It's less about "batteries" as we know them today, and more about storage for later use.

 

Also, sea level rise is not the only thing that is changing. So too is availability of arable crop-lands, drought, drinkable water availability, and intense strange storms. If you think global warming is not a big deal, you should consider the idea that your sources of information are not terribly trustworthy on this topic... To the point where they are either outright lying to you or just ignorant and incompetent when it comes to speaking on this issue.

 

We're already seeing the beginning of the changes with extreme weather events... Later snows, earlier high temperatures, more tornadoes, worse droughts, more intense hurricanes, and hurricanes in places not previously susceptible to them... While I wish burying my head in the sand would change those facts, unfortunately it does not.

I agree. Loss of glaciers in mountains will cause rivers to be dry when it does not rain, crops to fail, and millions or billions of people to migrate and/or wars over water with much loss of life. The prospects are not good.

[Tim the plumber]

EdEarl,

 

The point of the safety of supply of Lithium is noted, thanks.

 

Why are they so expensive then?

 

I will start a nw thread to do the climate change debate (again...)

[EdEarl]

I see prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate are about $6K/ton, and lithium metal are about $60K/ton.

 

I suspect that part of the expense of making the metal is the danger of handling lithium. It is generally toxic, and lithium hydroxide is corrosive.

[iNow]

I will start a nw thread to do the climate change debate (again...)

Please note. There is no debate remaining to be had on this topic. There are just people who accept reality and those who don't.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/18/scientists-agree-on-climate-change-so-why-doesnt-everyone-else