Pattern prediction

[Popcorn Sutton]

I've heard that were using new technologies to predict patterns. Theres a wide range of applicability, but i'd like to focus on more immediate precautions.

 

We will notice patterns of activity and be able to trace them better. War is not an option.... But, stress shouldn't be am option either. Atriophibrilation can kill and it's best to ease into change. Please, proceed to give out warnings to repeat offenders for the below examples.

 

Smoking. A new form of smoking had been released that has challenged the healthiness and gave us an alternative, namely, electronic cigarettes. It is a fallacy to appeal to tradition and these people should be aware that there are healthier alternatives and that because they exist, they are clearly wrong for appealing to tradition (i.e. Smoking cigarettes).

 

Loitering. Some people need a place to chill and often they choose poor parking not only because they will encounter the police but because it's noninstrumentalistic no be in those places. Opening up non-profit places where people can park and practice progressive science and technology will greatly improve the productivity of the community.

 

More will be thought

[Ringer]

I have no idea what you're wanting to discuss. What about predicting patterns == no stress == healthier smoking == no loitering?

[imatfaal]

!

Moderator Note

 

Popcorn - please can you make your original posts a little clearer. It is difficult to grasp what subjects you are trying to discuss - or questions you are trying to ask. The forum is not the correct place for a stream of consciousness blog.

 

and "atriophilbrilation" isn't in any of my dictionaries.

 

[Popcorn Sutton]

It might be atriofibrilation, it's arrythmic heart pulse, it usually arises in situations of unfamiliarity. Long story short, the police are now using predictive technologies to guide their course throughout their shift. It's already reduced crime in LA by 26%. Theyre using this technology across the US now. I just don't want to watch good people get screwed over because now the cops have a computer predicting where certain activities will occur. I'm suggesting that we legalize certain activities and provide safe places. The things that need to be corrected are things such as theft, murder, and assault, whereas activities that many people enjoy but are dogmatically shunned by current (unadaptive) policy should not be a point of interest for law enforcement unless it is clearly inhibiting ones potential for progress.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Popcorn Sutton

[Ringer]

I'm still not following, you want to discuss necessary vs. arbitrary laws? Or how predictive methods are/can be used?

[imatfaal]

Atrial Fibrillation is a common form of cardiac arrhythmia (the atria make up the two top sections of each side of heart) - its main causes are hypertension, cardiac heart disease, pneumonia, and alcoholism. I do not know of it being thought to have a proximal cause of being in situations of unease or unfamiliarity (although stress could be partial/contributory factor to lone atrial fibrillation). If you have a few cites/links for atrial fibrillation being mainly stress related I would love to see it.

 

The results for predictive policing massively reducing crime can be challenged. Crime statistics are notoriously difficult to compile - if a city's new idea reduces by a large amount crimes such as vandalism, minor criminal damage, speeding in a built-up zone, driving whilst on mobile phone etc - but leads to more burglaries, robbery, and violent crime; you may well have a serious drop in overall crime - but you mightn't want to live there.

 

Just seen Ringer's post - exactly what I was about to ask

[Popcorn Sutton]

I'm saying that because we have this predictive capacity now and we can calculate things such as theft and assault etc, the world is on the verge of making some major progress. The problem with the laws we currently have (in the US at least) is that I have a lot of friends who enjoy feeling good and doing things that will make their lives more exciting, enjoyable, and make them more personable with others. I wont mention what exactly they do (I believe these things need to be legalized in some way) but whatever it is that they do, it does not cause harm to anyone, and in a lot of cases, it is the contrary, they actually make progress, they feel more open to talk about certain things (science being one of those things) and yet, here we have a policing system where the cops are determined to (not exactly) get that gold star. In order to get that gold star, they need to prove that they are doing something for the community (namely, enforcing the law). Well, some laws infringe on things that people enjoy doing and do not intend on stopping. In this case, what happens is that the cops will put them on probation (I saw a good guy get caught with a roach that the K9 unit sniffed out). He had to pay a lot of money to go and get drug tested at least once a month. He had to take time out of his work day as well. This happens all the time. People need to make money and people enjoy things that bring them pleasure (one of which is drinking a few beers illegally at the park when the weather is good). Well, I've noticed that the cops have been showing up literally the exact moment that me and my friends get together (which I'm sure the program predicted) and they often show up on a mission (as you can see by their behavior). The other day they came flying in at at least 30mph and pulled straight up to a car and busted the guy (don't know what for though). My point is that, this system is great and I really look forward to living in a more trustworthy world, but also that some people find happiness in doing the things that they have come to know as enjoyable. Unfortunately, the cops don't always see it like that. So this new movement (which is being called "progressive policing") should be focussed on PROGRESS. We should all unify in the effort to make things easier for ourselves and enhance our ability to survive, but now that we have this predictive policing, there are areas in which crime is forecasted to an approximation of 500sqft. These forecasted areas are technically, if you want to accept the metaphor, warfronts between those who enforce and those who disobey. Well, if we didn't have to live in paranoia (which is now enhanced by a factor of 10) because of our actions (which sometimes happen to go against certain dogmatic policies), then we could have that chance to make progress. If we just legalized a few things and provided safe places for people to go and park their car and chill at any time because they simply don't have any other place to go, safe places that provided us with power outlets and wifi and safety, we could spend our time doing the things we enjoy doing in these safe places, we could focus on the progress that our world needs, we could get things done, feel free to collaborate with others and meet new people without that lingering paranoia that we are going to get screwed over by an unanticipated cop who needs a gold star, and without the paranoia that we are in the presence of people who don't care about your well being. If we met these conditions, then progress is very possible, and it will be much more likely. The thing is that sometimes we need to make change immediately because of the emergence of new technologies or potentially harmful substances. The United States does not hesitate to prohibit potentially harmful substances, but they do not work in the opposite direction. They hesitate to legalize substances that are clearly popular and enjoyable for a lot of people. But now, because of this new crime forecasting technology, the livelihood of a good portion of our countries population is suddenly in jeapordy because now the cops have a consistent prediction of where unlawful activity will occur. Putting people on probation is not progressive, and the system doesn't even prevent the majority of them from doing the unlawful things that they want to do (even if they are currently on probation and face to possibility of being tested). Simply put, they either never stop doing what they've come to enjoy doing, or they immediately relapse when they get the news that their case is closed. So what's the point? The point is that they're spending all this money and all this time on pissing in a cup so the people who do not partake in those activities (most likely because their job prohibits illegal activity and monitors it) can keep their job. Progress requires money, drug testing is not progressive, it's a business that is set out to screw people over (making them lose their jobs, putting them in jail, taking their money so they can see a line on a stick). What is the practical utility of testing? In reality, there is none. There are a lot of good, smart, and fun people who simply get screwed by dogmatic policy. We need to change, and we need to do it fast.

 

If I could make a suggestion, I would say that we need a system that actively prevents regression and takes no part in regressive activity, in fact, it should be banned. A good system would allow people to enjoy their current state of life, nudge them in the direction of progress, and prohibit any regressive activity. Let us focus on our own survival and don't worry about the possibility of us killing ourselves because we partake in the (currently) unlawful use of substances. Prevent poisons, research all substances, legalize the substances that are statistically significant within the population, nudge people towards progress, prohibit any (potentially) harmful activity and all activity that causes regression in some way, and let us make the world a better place.

[Ringer]

Alright so you're saying that these predictive models will be used for laws that are, in your opinion, unnecessary instead of doing good. Those are two different subjects in their own right, and the last paragraph is an entirely new subject. Not that any of these aren't interesting subjects, but it's going to be hard to actually have a conversation of all three in a single thread.

 

Anyway, I would like to see what crimes these predictive models work on and how accurate they have been. Crime rates have been dropping significantly around the entire USA so saying there was a drop in crime doesn't mean anything and doesn't support anything other than crime rates are variable. I don't like discussing legality and what should and should not be legal because they tend not to go anywhere so I'll leave that subject alone.

 

On the retributive nature of the United States Justice system, I agree that it's a pretty crappy self-perpetuating system. There have been some efforts to reduce this but, quite frankly, most of the people that matter to politicians(read people who yell the loudest) like to go on gut feelings. Gut feelings say punish someone who did something wrong.