Wild Weather Explained; Jet Stream & Vapor Loading

[Essay]

"When it comes to extreme weather, the connection is pretty clear; the warmer the world, the wilder it gets. And with the speed that emissions still enter the atmosphere, we're right on track for an unrecognizable future."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Kpigok-lVK4

 

NOTE: Celsius [centigrade] is used throughout the whole clip.

So double the Celsius degrees, for any of those "change in temperature" numbers,

to get Fahrenheit degrees of change... roughly. *

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Several worthwhile quotes are found in this less-than-20 minute Australian video, such as:

"How is it that a slightly warmer atmosphere can create weather that swings from one extreme to the next?"

"From Lazy Jet Streams to Baking Soils, in this report we explain the mechanism behind some of the most catastrophic events of the decade."

"Understanding exactly how a warmer world drives weather wild is crucial to predicting just how bumpy a ride we are in for."

"So how is it that it can be getting hotter, drier, and wetter at the same time?"

"It's simple physics."

"What goes up must come down."

 

This last quote cleverly refers to evaporation and precipitation globally; and includes "transpiration," whereby plants "drink" water and then "release" a lot of water from their leaves into the atmosphere, as a big part of the global water cycle.

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One major point, in the video, is about land-use & land-cover changes affecting how, if the sun is "free to heat the surface," a lot more local moisture is lost. Soil moisture buffers temperature changes, due to the extra material (water) in the soil that has such a high heat capacity. To clarify, their main point is that moisture, once in the air, adds to the heating and storm potential.

It seems to me we can conclude:

Soils, and how we manage our soils, can either magnify or moderate weather events.

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They explain how...

"Extremes are intensified" ...with only a 0.8 degree C [~ 1.5 F] rise in global average temperature...

due to a lot more water vapor (full of stored heat) lurking in our skies.

"That means we're getting more water from a [rare] big storm, than we would have 30 or 40 years ago;

around 7% more per degree rise in temperature."

This is twice the effect, predicted by the models, according to the video! They add that further "changes to the hydrological cycle could be 30%" if the expected warming continues.

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Their second main point explains how...

The Jet Stream is formed and stabilized! And how it is becoming a major driver of weird weather. Whether hot and dry, in a "big stagnant High," or cold and soaked by odd incursions of frigid Arctic air plunging far enough south to collide with warm Tropical moisture directly, we have a "bumpy ride" to prepare for.

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After watching the video, we might conclude, istm:

How Jet Streams are changing may be unpredictable; but the risk to (or the loss of) our Temperate Zone agriculture needs to be considered, if planning for the future.

They only left out:

...how the 2003 heat wave killed mostly elderly, whom were left alone while their children and doctors were away for the traditional European August summer holiday.

...how the Russian heat wave deaths were much worse due to the relentless Peat Fires burning across the region, as well as the smoke from forest fires triggered by the peat fires... leading to the respiratory disease mentioned.

...how the Jet Stream is strongly directed by the Coriolis Effect, which depends upon that large difference in "height" they show... as well as the Temperate/Polar temperature differential, iirc.

...how a "Lazy Jet Stream" can generate "Omega Loops," leading to Omega Blocks, which can lead to relatively stationary, long-lasting storms, as well as larger storm fronts.

...how "growing zones" and "disease zones" will migrate poleward by up to 400 miles by the end of the century, as well as higher in elevation.

...how on average in the future, despite extreme events that run counter to a trend, wet areas will get wetter, and dry areas will get drier.

 

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Before watching this video, some metric conversions might be helpful. They mention:

0.8 © = (F) 1.44 degrees... change in global average temperature;

&

100mm/hr = 3.94 inches/hr...

Re:

Apr 23, 2013 - Determined not to let Tauranga's torrential rain get the better of them...

Jul 1, 2013 - The last residents affected by the Tauranga floods moves back into there homes.

"...damage caused by similar flooding last year cost close to $100,000, but last night's deluge was 'a lot worse.'"

...as well as:

" At one point last week, central Australia was shown with a purple area on the bureau's forecast map, a new colour code suggesting temperatures were set to soar above 50 degrees (122 Fahrenheit). Australia's all-time record temperature is 50.7 [123.26 F] degrees, set in January 1960 at Oodnadatta in South Australia state." http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=207&FILE=b1&DAY=20130118

...so Purple will be for the range from 50 (122) thru 59 (138.2) or 60 (140).

 

...istm, this...

...is a Change Climate is causing.

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fyi:

other temperatures from the video:

43 C = 109.4 F

45.9 C = 114.62 F

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*(& Changes from Normal).

C => F

1 => 1.8

2 => 3.6

3 => 5.4

4 => 7.2

5 => 9

6 => 10.8 (mentioned several times)

7 => 12.6

8 => 14.4

9 => 16.2

10=> 18

Remember: these are for changes in temp, not for converting between scales.

 

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"And with the speed that emissions still enter the atmosphere, we're right on track for an unrecognizable future."

~~~

p.s. I don't usually watch videos online; But When I Do, I Prefer Dos Equis... as I jot down a few notes and quotes. ~Enjoy

Edited July 21, 2013 by Essay