EdEarl Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego have developed a method for greatly enhancing biofuel production in tiny marine algae. This increase may make microalgae oil production competitive with petroleum diesel. The Economics of Microalgae Oil The literature for microalgae oil is quite extensive on the production of microalgae oil, but few studies offer estimates of the costs to produce oil. Using the ranges in the literature for critical input and production variables, a commercial size microalgae farm of 1,000 acres was simulated to estimate algae oil costs of production. Using the same methodology, a similar size farm was analyzed, but this time the input and output parameters were based on results for an experimental farm in the desert Southwest. Results of a Monte Carlo simulation for the two hypothetical farms indicate that the total cost for producing microalgae oil is highly variable for both farming systems due to the inherent risks associated with growing micro algae in open raceways. The average cost of production, with the protein credit, for the conventional farm is estimated at $1.61, per pound while the cost for the second scenario is $0.25 per pound. The May edition of F.O. Licht’s World Biodiesel Price Report (2009) reported that the crude soybean oil price for FOB Gulf in the United States ranged from $0.35 to $0.38 per pound. At these prices, the more productive microalgae farm can compete with soybean oil. A rough estimate of the price of biodiesel made from algae oil is $2.35 per gallon, just slightly higher than current diesel prices, but far below diesel prices a year ago. Microalgae oil production is economically feasible at this time, but only if the results for the best small-scale experiment the authors have seen are scalable to a commercial size farm. Their research is very promising, but the issue of scaling it to 1,000 acres is still a question. There are many millions of acres of desert in the southwest with saline groundwater that can be used to grow marine microalgae. Brackish Groundwater Groundwater resource evaluations have focused primarily on the extent and properties of freshwater aquifers, so comparatively little is known about saline water–bearing units. Available evidence indicates that significant amounts of brackish groundwater exist around the country. For instance, Texas has an estimated 2.7 billion acre-feet of brackish groundwater. In New Mexico, 75 percent of groundwater is too saline for most uses without treatment. The Salt Basin encompasses approximately 1.5 million acres in New Mexico,with an equally large area in west Texas. There is little rain in this area, which means these groundwater sources will deplete quickly if squandered. Fortunately, growing algae is best done in greenhouses or in photobioreactors that conserve water. If this development sparks the large scale production of algal oil, it will create jobs, reduce CO2 emissions, and stop the flow of dollars to oil producing countries. It would be a huge benefit for the environment and economy of the US.
ralfy Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) The U.S. military is currently engaged in the same: "Algae Fuel Could Help Solve The Navy’s Oil Dependence" http://www.kpbs.org/news/2013/jan/17/algae-fuel-could-help-solve-navys-oil-dependence/ Because of the threat of peak oil: "US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015" http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply A warning shared by others, such as the German military: "Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios" http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-german-military-report-warns-of-apocalyptic-peak-oil-scenarios-2010-9 not to mention business organizations: "Lloyd's adds its voice to dire 'peak oil' warnings" http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/jul/11/peak-oil-energy-disruption and others: https://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/ The catch is that algae biofuels have low energy returns: "Algae biofuel not sustainable now-U.S. research council" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-usa-biofuels-algae-idUSBRE89N1Q820121024 which means they will not allow for "business as usual," but should help in meeting needs, if not allow military and police forces to continue operations and control local populations. Edited November 22, 2013 by ralfy
CharonY Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 The problem is that even with the increase they reported (maximum of about 4-fold increase) it is still far off. I have looked at data from large-scale trials about 2-3 years back and the increase would need to be much higher than that before it starts being economically sound. On top, the total yield is still very low, i.e. even with a massive upscale it would not even be close to put a dent on demand. Unless there is a massive breakthrough (and the mentioned article is quite a bit far off from that) it still requires much more research.
EdEarl Posted November 22, 2013 Author Posted November 22, 2013 The problem is that even with the increase they reported (maximum of about 4-fold increase) it is still far off. I have looked at data from large-scale trials about 2-3 years back and the increase would need to be much higher than that before it starts being economically sound. On top, the total yield is still very low, i.e. even with a massive upscale it would not even be close to put a dent on demand. Unless there is a massive breakthrough (and the mentioned article is quite a bit far off from that) it still requires much more research. For sure, demand for petroleum is almost 7 billion barrels per year (294 billion gallons) in the US. At least one company says they have produced 9000 gallons of algae oil per acre per year, which means about 326 million acres of land would be needed to replace petroleum. That is 100 times the acreage available in New Mexico and Texas that's over brackish groundwater. That's why energy conservation and diversification will be important in the future.
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