Global cooling or warming????

[Bilal Hussain]

I'm much confussed when I look at the temprature of different regions and other climate factors because some time it seems that we are moving global warming and some time it seems like global cooling.

what you think?

[Ophiolite]

I think the evidence is clear and unequivocal: the average, long term temperature of the planet is increasing. The evidence is also overwhelming that this warming is largely due to human activities. The counterarguments are typically produced by deliberate, deluded or accidental misinterpretation, or selection of the evidence to support a belief.

[John Cuthber]

One factor that is sometimes misrepresented as evidence against warming is that global warming may lead to local cooling.

Some (I think most) models predict that if the world warms the gulf stream will be less effective or stop. If it does that the UK temperatures will fall dramatically. So, if there was a measured fall in temperature here in the UK people could use it to say that global warming isn't happening, but it would actually be evidence that the planet was warming up.

[Marklovski]

The world does warm up gradually, but also has some slight cooling periods. In the end the temperature still becomes higher than the previous ones. Just read some Yahoo articles of snow in the Middle East. People are saying "Global Cooling" and using the articles as evidence as if nothing is happening. Even though these places with snow are at high elevation and tend to get snow annually. I decided to post a few comments, and I was astonished to find illiterate people bashing me. Most of the comments were about conspiracy and money, which was absurd. I am a young guy, science and philosophy is a hobby for me. This is my first post and I hope to learn some more information here.

[EdEarl]

There have already been a number of discussions on this forum about global warming that you can find via search. Reading through them is probably the fastest way to get an idea of how the discussions go. IMO the best indicators of global warming are glaciers, ice caps, snow caps, permafrost and some migration patterns. The glaciers and ice caps are easiest to see trends because many have been photographed for decades. Snow and ice are watched from space and ground, which means reports are widespread and continual. One must be careful to consider both area covered and ice depth; otherwise, it is possible to misinterpret the data.

[Bilal Hussain]

Thanks to all. If we really moving toward global warming due to Green house gases than we can easily control it.

I've a project but I wanna present it in any Confrence.

[Airbrush]

If there was no global warming, we would enter an ice age in about 1500 years. So isn't global warming saving us from the impending ice age?

 

Maybe I should start a new discussion on this subject, unless I get some good responses.

[EdEarl]

If there was no global warming, we would enter an ice age in about 1500 years. So isn't global warming saving us from the impending ice age?

 

Maybe I should start a new discussion on this subject, unless I get some good responses.

Who said we might enter an ice age in 1500 years except for global warming?

 

I think either an ice age or global warming pose threats. A 4 - 8C increase in temperature sounds serious to me.

http://phys.org/news/2013-12-cloud-mystery-global-temperatures-4c.html

[Moontanman]

I was under the impression that some models do seem to indicate that cooling, at least localized cooling is likely if average global temperatures do go up, disrupting the Gulf stream, as John mentioned could have that effect.

[Airbrush]

Who said we might enter an ice age in 1500 years except for global warming?

 

I think either an ice age or global warming pose threats. A 4 - 8C increase in temperature sounds serious to me.

http://phys.org/news/2013-12-cloud-mystery-global-temperatures-4c.html

I heard the number 1,500 years from now the next ice age should begin on a Science Channel program about planet Earth.

 

I searched "ice age" and found this:

 

".....Other scientists, while agreeing with this thesis for the short term, say that eventually the buffering properties of the atmosphere, ocean and Earth will restore balance, returning most of the liberated carbon to long-term storage and allowing the orbital rhythm once again to dominate.

 

"Orbital changes are in a slow dance leading to a peak 80,000 years from now,'' said Dr. Eric J. Barron, the dean of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State. ''I can hardly imagine that human influences won't have run their course by that time.''

 

"It may seem that human-driven global warming, although perhaps a disaster on the scale of centuries, may be a good thing in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.

 

"But many climatologists note that the complex interplay of greenhouse gases, orbital shifts and other influences on climate remain poorly understood. In fact, some experts say, there is a chance that human-induced warming could shut down heat-toting ocean currents that keep northern latitudes warmer than they otherwise would be. The result could be a faster descent into glacial times instead of a delay."

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/11/science/when-will-the-next-ice-age-begin.html

[EdEarl]

Whatever things happen 1500 years from now are less urgent than things about to happen this century, and it is important to consider unintended consequences of things about to happen this century before things 1500 years from now. For example, 4C or 6F is enough increase in temperature to melt glaciers and ice packs faster than they have melted since 1900. At the beginning of that century global temperatures began to increase. Since then, records show many glaciers have lost huge amounts ice each year, more have not grown, and a few have grown. Time lapse photography has captured a fraction of the loss, and the images are alarming.

 

The loss of glaciers in the Himalayan range are melting and are likely to be gone within this century; whereupon, many great Asian rivers will be dry except during the rainy season, and lush jungle climate will be dryer. Great rice fields may be converted to wheat and other grains. Water added to the ocean will raise the level of the ocean about 7 meters, and many coastal human habitats will be abandoned, which may result in mass starvation of perhaps 1/4 of humanity. The way governments handle the change of corps from rice to other grains will determine how many people starve. It seems plausible that governments could keep stores of grain and use weather prediction, agricultural education and data, agribusiness, and consulting services to manage the transition. Without management the cycle may include rice crop failure and starvation. The loss of eternal rivers may reduce world food amounts significantly for several years, but some things can be done to offset losses. Planning and infrastructure construction can build mountain farm terraces where temperature increases occur or will occur.

 

A business, TerCo, might be established to construct terraces and sell mountain terraced farm land in 1 to 640 acre lots. As the climate warms, temperatures on mountain sides will increase, making areas currently too cold for farming warmer. Terracing, as in China and elsewhere, can make it economical. Robotic earth moving equipment will terrace sun facing mountain sides with a handful of expert humans to run the business. It is hard to know how long TerCo will be needed, when it will be needed, or how quickly the industry will grow and wane. I'm reasonably sure it will be needed to assure adequate food worldwide. As a last resort farms can be floated around the equator on the oceans.

Edited January 3, 2014 by EdEarl

[Colic]

Global warming or cooling? It's definitely warming. The reason why it appears to sometimes be cooling is because over shorter spans of time, it does. However, the overall the long-term average temperature is easily increasing. In any 10 year graph of Earth's temperature you can see some cooling, but over the last 50-100 years the average value in any 10 year period is increasing. Some places will get colder due to shifting air and water currents, but the average thermal energy in the atmosphere is going up. It's especially noticeable because people's island homes are disappearing from the rising sea levels caused by glacial melting and they get angry at developed nations for not doing something.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Colic

[EdEarl]

Whatever things happen 1500 years from now are less urgent than things about to happen this century, and it is important to consider unintended consequences of things about to happen this century before things 1500 years from now. For example, 4C or 6F is enough increase in temperature to melt glaciers and ice packs faster than they have melted since 1900. At the beginning of that century global temperatures began to increase. Since then, records show many glaciers have lost huge amounts ice each year, more have not grown, and a few have grown. Time lapse photography has captured a fraction of the loss, and the images are alarming.

 

The loss of glaciers in the Himalayan range are melting and are likely to be gone within this century; whereupon, many great Asian rivers will be dry except during the rainy season, and lush jungle climate will be dryer. Great rice fields may be converted to wheat and other grains. Water added to the ocean will raise the level of the ocean about 7 meters, and many coastal human habitats will be abandoned, which may result in mass starvation of perhaps 1/4 of humanity. The way governments handle the change of corps from rice to other grains will determine how many people starve. It seems plausible that governments could keep stores of grain and use weather prediction, agricultural education and data, agribusiness, and consulting services to manage the transition. Without management the cycle may include rice crop failure and starvation. The loss of eternal rivers may reduce world food amounts significantly for several years, but some things can be done to offset losses. Planning and infrastructure construction can build mountain farm terraces where temperature increases occur or will occur.

 

A business, TerCo, might be established to construct terraces and sell mountain terraced farm land in 1 to 640 acre lots. As the climate warms, temperatures on mountain sides will increase, making areas currently too cold for farming warmer. Terracing, as in China and elsewhere, can make it economical. Robotic earth moving equipment will terrace sun facing mountain sides with a handful of expert humans to run the business. It is hard to know how long TerCo will be needed, when it will be needed, or how quickly the industry will grow and wane. I'm reasonably sure it will be needed to assure adequate food worldwide. As a last resort farms can be floated around the equator on the oceans.

The people displaced by ocean level rising can be relocated in farms of a few acres. The UN suggests such land should already be farmed to reduce world hunger. See below.

Investing in small-scale farmers can help lift over 1 billion people out of poverty – UN report

 

4 June 2013 – Given the right conditions and targeted support, small farmers can unleash a new and sustainable agricultural revolution, the United Nations environment agency a partner agricultural development organization reported today on the eve of World Environment Day.

 

According to the report, Smallholders, Food Security and the Environment, an estimated 2.5 billion people who manage 500 million smallholder farm households provide over 80 per cent of the food consumed in much of the developing world, particularly Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

 

The report, commissioned by the UN Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), also shows that most of the 1.4 billion people living on less than $1.25 a day live in rural areas and depend largely on agriculture for their livelihoods.

[ASG]

this can be a real or an empty threat. if it is real, mean temperature changes of even +- 10 degrees for any given area irrespective of cause has heavy cost.

 

please treat this with sobriety.

 

redifining problem into maintenance : climate system should be static.

[EdEarl]

this can be a real or an empty threat. if it is real, mean temperature changes of even +- 10 degrees for any given area irrespective of cause has heavy cost.

 

please treat this with sobriety.

 

redifining problem into maintenance : climate system should be static.

I don't know what you mean. If I understand the situation correctly, the climate scientists are saying that the 4C change will occur by 2100; we cannot avoid it. It would be nice for climate to be static, but it is not. A mere 2C increase will bring sea level increases as mountain glaciers evaporate, and the Greenland ice sheet is significantly reduced. Billions of people will move from flooded shores and 1/5 of the worlds population will face severe water shortages.

 

I am sober.

 

How does one redefine the problem? I think everyone will have to live with things as they occur. And, we should expect Katrina type flooding around the world for many years, starting sometime after 2050. Although, the flooding will creep up the shore, until a storm or tsunami occurs.

[ASG1699]

i not saying what is going to happen and or what can happen. i am saying given a change this will happen. and it must not be allowed to happen.

 

you redefine a problem by making it a part of your work and it no longer becomes a problem but a task. it must be done.

 

yes a +-10 degree change will make things radical and make you work and repair and hold rather than spend efforts at being happy and creative.

[jero25]

Overall the climate is changing . I live in Southerner part of India . Here we don't get rain during rainy season . We get rain in summer .