Crimea troubles - start of something larger?

[CaptainPanic]

In the Crimea, the Russian population is a majority, even though it is part of the Ukraine. It seems that these Russians wish to become part of Russia. Gunmen seized the Crimean government buildings.

Both Ukraine and Russia are using strong words that they won't tolerate any 'violations'. The Ukrainian interim president, who is in power only for a few days now after the recolution last weekend, said that Russian military movements would be seen as agression, while Russia has put 150,000 troops on high alert near the Ukrainian borderm including jet fighters and navy, to 'defend' the Russian interests in the Crimea.

 

What do you think it gonna happen? I think there is a fair chance that the Ukraine cannot hold on to the Crimea... I just hope that any transitions will be without major conflicts. The way that Russia seems to approach this however is like a bully, and I am afraid that Russia won't easily back down now.

 

[edit] Unconfirmed reports say that the former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, is in Moscow. He was a pro-Russian president. Russia says the new government of Ukraine is not legitimate. It appears to me that they wish the former president back in power in Kiev (Kiev = Ukraine's capital).

[ajb]

I hope it is not the start of more, but we know Russia does not want the former Soviet countries to become friendly with the West.

 

Poland has taken quite an active role here in Kiev trying to keep dialogue flowing between all the interested parties including Russia. Injured protestors are being treated in Polish hospitals and we have seen some Ukrainian flag waving in Warsaw.

 

I think the Polish people have some sympathy here with the Ukrainians and it partly reflects the past Polish struggle against Russian influence. The Polish people have also experienced martial law and know how hard that is on a country.

[Delbert]

From what I can understand they are in trouble. Trouble because firstly they apparently need shedloads of money, and secondly, things don't appear to have settled down with what could be described as a stable and controlling government and functioning economy. I also understand the EU has made soundings about lending, but presumably they'd need a stable government to emerge without the threat of further insurrection before they did. And without money, forming a stable and controlling government with a functioning economy might be problematic.

 

Perhaps the Russians are holding a watching brief.

[CaptainPanic]

Delbert, what you describe may actually be the whole game plan of the Russians. They don't need to put one of their puppets back in power, they just have to maintain the instability for a while longer. And with some anonymous army in two airports and some government buildings in the Crimea, they are doing exactly that. Russians have always been good chess players. No shock-and-awe here. Just some smart moves, which may result in a desirable outcome in a while.

 

The EU on the contrary are likely to never reach a good plan, they just have one meeting after another. Fortunately though, the EU does have very very large pockets, and if the situation becomes critical, they can afford a small financial loss to buy the Ukrainian government some time.

 

I'm curious to find out who is occupying the airports and government buildings. The Russian Black Sea fleet deny any involvement. I think it is curious that they even comment on this.

[ajb]

I'm curious to find out who is occupying the airports and government buildings. The Russian Black Sea fleet deny any involvement. I think it is curious that they even comment on this.

I cannot see any obvious insignia on the uniforms to let us know who they are. But reports say something about Russian navy flags...

[Delbert]

The EU on the contrary are likely to never reach a good plan, they just have one meeting after another.

And perhaps as we all know, a committee is an animal with four back legs.

 

Fortunately though, the EU does have very very large pockets, and if the situation becomes critical, they can afford a small financial loss to buy the Ukrainian government some time.

And short arms? And or pockets full of borrowed money, mayhap?

[CaptainPanic]

We can discuss about the benefits and problems of the EU in another thread. Unless it's directly related to the Ukraine/Crimea issues, I propose we don't do that here.

 

In the meantime, 10 Russian helicopters were spotted flying into Ukrainian airspace. Russia continues to provoke.

[Delbert]

The trouble with these situations: they take a long time to settle down. In fact I believe someone once said of the French revolution: it's far too soon for proper analysis.

 

Action followed by reaction is, I believe, a law of physics.

[John Cuthber]

Action followed by reaction over reaction is, I believe, a law of physics politics.

[Delbert]

Just heard news that apparently Russia has just received (presumably from their parliament) the okay to become involved in Ukraine.

[dimreepr]

Russia seems to have been involved since the first strategic takeover of vital communication resources; the lack of insignia doesn’t necessarily mean not involved.

[michel123456]

Call me a naive, but I will never understand why nations do not behave like individuals.

 

For example, say that your neighbour has a beautiful room with a spendid view on the lake and a bacony just over the calm waters. He let's you come there for fishing, the whole year long. At some time, your neighbour divorces and marries a girl that you suspect won't let you fish again. Do you take your gun and invade the room with a view? No because you don't have the right to do so. The police will come, arrest you, you will be condamned and put to jail.

For nations it's different. There is no police. There is no law that forbids war. People who make war in some case may receive the peace Nobel prize.

 

I also would like to see more transparency. If Crimea is so important for Russia, tell it. Speak. Learn to divulgate your plans, put your papers open on the table and discuss with other parties (countries). Why is it always needed to wait for hundred, thousand, millions of deaths before doing that?

[Moontanman]

Didn't both world wars start under similar conditions? It scares me, the US has a serious need to poke it's nose into every conflict in the world, pulling back a bloody stub is inevitable... The Russians have a serious need to prove their power and the US POTUS and his weak party want to show some sign of strength, sounds like a powder keg to me, with NK saber rattling and

china flexing it's muscles, I grew up in the cold war, I get nervous every time this stuff starts...

[dimreepr]

Thankfully, China is yet to get involved, one can only hope they don't.

[michel123456]

Nihil novi sub sole.

Reading the Wiki article about the Crimean war (October 1853 – February 1856:

 

 

Some excerpts chosen not at random

According to Shepard Clough, professor of history at Columbia University, the war:

"was not the result of a calculated plan, nor even of hasty last-minute decisions made under stress. It was the consequence of more than two years of fatal blundering in slow-motion by inept statesmen who had months to reflect upon the actions they took. It arose from Napoleon's search for prestige; Nicholas’s quest for control over the Straits; his naïve miscalculation of the probable reactions of the European powers; the failure of those powers to make their positions clear; and the pressure of public opinion in Britain and Constantinople at crucial moments."^[11]

 

For over 200 years, Russia had been expanding in a southerly direction toward the warm water ports of the Black Sea. Warm water ports that did not freeze over in the winter were essential for the development of Russian year-round trade and development of a strong navy.^[9]:11 This brought the emerging Russian state into conflict with the Ukrainian Cossacks and then with the Ukrainian Tatars.^[15] When Russia conquered these groups and gained possession of the Ukraine, the Ottoman Empire lost its buffer zone against Russian expansion, and Russia and the Ottoman Empire fell into direct conflict. The conflict with the Ottoman Empire also presented a religious issue of importance, as Russia saw itself as the protector of Orthodox Christians, many of whom lived under Ottoman control.^{[9](ch 1)}

 

 

And the most sarcastic quote IMHO

Most of the fighting took place for control of the Black Sea, with land battles on the Crimean peninsula in southern Russia. The Russians held their great fortress at Sevastopol for over a year. After it fell, peace became possible

 

Casualties?

220,000 for Russia

300,000-375,000 for the Ottomans, French, British, Sardinians.

 

Almost 600.000 dead before "peace became possible"

 

Isn't that pure madness?

[jduff]

Heh, it is escalating quite quickly. Ukraines main naval commander defected to Russia. A pic that tells the moment

Should expect a China response this week. It will not be positive for those in the west.

Edited March 3, 2014 by jduff

[CharonY]

I would be surprised if China actively tries to get involved in it. Unless they have some significant investments into the Ukraine (which I really do not know), there does not seem to be any benefit to side with either of them.

[CaptainPanic]

Why on earth would China get involved in this? What would be their motivation (and how would that compensate the huge losses in trade)? If this escalates (I hope it won't!!) China will be supplying every party with whatever they need, at a very modest price - if necessary an installment plan can be arranged. Don't forget that in a war, the neutral parties can be the biggest winners.

 

This conflict in the Crimea is just the Ukraine vs. Russia, where the Ukraine can hope for some support from the EU and/or USA. Russia are certainly not looking for WWIII, because they know they would lose it badly. And the EU/USA are reluctant to enter into this conflict because they probably want Russia's gas and oil. So, it seems to me that the Crimea is just sacrificed in a dirty political game.

 

[edit] I hardly wrote that down or I read an article that Russia claims that China agrees with the Russian policy to protect Russian speaking population. I'm looking for any confirmation of this from a Chinese source, but I haven't found any so far.

[Delbert]

All this seems to have followed a non democratic overthrow of an elected leader and government. A mob rallied at a particular place and used whatever came to hand - apparently including a hand grenade causing serious injury - to effect their demands.

 

Perhaps it was the case that the government and leader in charge were not liked or unsavoury for whatever reason, but if they were elected, then, I'm sorry, but they have to endure until the next election. And then to consider very carefully before casting votes at the next election.

 

Voting is a serious business. For example, suppose a lunatic ends up being elected, and the lunatic promptly makes a Horlicks of everything, who's fault is it? Is it the fault of the lunatic, or the fault of those who voted him or her into power?

Edited March 3, 2014 by Delbert

[jduff]

Ohh my!!! China has answered. http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine

 

Dont worry guys. Ill be making Part II of my WWIII synopsis before wednesday! Its giving the west a middle finger then telling them to suck it

[dimreepr]

Ohh my!!! China has answered. http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine

 

Dont worry guys. Ill be making Part II of my WWIII synopsis before wednesday! Its giving the west a middle finger then telling them to suck it

 

As far as I can see, it’s Russia that’s answered, not China, although they have yet to deny Russia’s claim.

[CharonY]

Some official statements have been issued, it seems

 

 

 

China's stance on the current situation in Ukraine is objective, just, fair and peaceful, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said on Monday.

"China upholds its own diplomatic principles and the basic codes for international relations, which have also been implied on the Ukraine issue," Qin said when asked for comments on Russia's actions. "Meanwhile, we have also taken the historical and contemporary factors of the Ukraine issue into consideration."

The comments came as a clarification of Qin's Sunday briefing, in which he urged all sides involved in the Ukraine situation to comply with international law and seek a political solution to their disputes through dialogue and negotiations.

On Sunday, the spokesman said China always sticks to the principle of non-interference in any country's internal affairs and respects the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

"There are reasons for today's situation in Ukraine," Qin added on Monday.

He urged efforts from involved parties to prevent escalating the situation and jointly safeguard the regional peace and stability.

 

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/845914.shtml#.UxSrlfldXKt

[Acme]

...

What do you think it gonna happen? I think there is a fair chance that the Ukraine cannot hold on to the Crimea... I just hope that any transitions will be without major conflicts. The way that Russia seems to approach this however is like a bully, and I am afraid that Russia won't easily back down now.

...

Putin may get shirtless not because he takes it off, but because he loses it.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-hikes-rates-amid-market-carnage-over-ukraine-100455087.html

Russian markets nosedive as Ukraine panic takes hold

Moscow (AFP) - Investors in Russia reacted with panic Monday to the potentially disastrous economic consequences of Russian military intervention in Ukraine, with Moscow stock markets crashing up to 12 percent and the ruble plunging to historic lows against the dollar and euro.

...

Military intervention would drain further resources from a Russian budget already stretched by costs like the Sochi Olympics, limit Russia's economic ties with the West and force Russian companies into huge write-offs in Ukraine.

"Sochi was already expensive. Military adventures and strained relations with the West can be much more expensive than that," said economist Holger Schmieding at Berenberg Bank in London.

 

"Russia cannot afford that in the long run," he added

...

[jduff]

Putin may get shirtless not because he takes it off, but because he loses it.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-hikes-rates-amid-market-carnage-over-ukraine-100455087.html

So, how exactly does that effect Russia? Considering most of its transactions are through the Yuan? I dont think Russia cares about western currency so much. The only people who care about western currency in Russia are western investors. In the next few days you will see many western investors pull out. Russia is not dependent upon the west's currency. The west is not Russia's primary trade partner. In fact it is the opposite. The E.U depends heavily upon Russian oil and gas! In fact, you will see huge moves among the BRICS nations.

 

Also, all stock markets will take a hit. That includes our own!http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460178

Edited March 4, 2014 by jduff

[Acme]

So, how exactly does that effect Russia? ...

Guess we'll just have to wait & see. As Mr. Twain observed, predictions are hard to make, especially when they deal with the future.