pwagen Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 No sweat. If it's ok on your laptop, the problem is probably due to my phone. Looks much better now, thanks!
michel123456 Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 (edited) Mike you seriously need to read more. Let’s look at this premise. Instead of the works of Shakespeare we will just look at one sentence: "to be or not to be that is the question". Let's ignore capital letters and punctuation but include the spaces. we have 39 independent outcomes for each letter for 27 values. If we have a billion monkeys each typing 39 symbols every 10 seconds for the entire age of the universe (15, billion years, notice no breaks). The probability of the sentence being typed would be (1/27)^39=1.5*10^-56 so a year contains: 365*24*60*60=3*10^7 seconds thus each monkey can make 3*10^6 attempts each year the total number of attempts of all the billion monkeys throughout the entire age of the universe would be: 3*10^6*10^9*1.5*10^10=4.5*10^25 This is far too short of the number to be a reasonable chance of success. Let’s clarify, It’s insanely unlikely (a 0.00000000000000000000000000000003% chance) for one billion monkeys to type “to be or not to be that is the question” even if they ignored punctuation and typed non-stop for the whole life time of the universe. It’s not to say that it will never happen but it is so unlikely for one sentence to be typed during the entire universe’s life time. Using this to say this: is a complete joke. This is Mike smith's pub talk at its finest. Read up on basic probability before formulating theories based on probability. The only way be can understand the universe at this moment in time is based on probability. Can you actually be clearer on what you mean by these statements I've quoted? They are so vague they offer no insight into anything. That's not the way it goes. It was much easier for the Universe to randomly produce a living planet with intelligent primats and one of them creating the works of Shakespeare. It did happen and took only 13 billion years. What is asked in the monkeys example is something different. It consists to reproduce randomly twice a very specific result by driving another route. Edited April 26, 2014 by michel123456
Lightmeow Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 That's not the way it goes. It was much easier for the Universe to randomly produce a living planet with intelligent primats and one of them creating the works of Shakespeare. It did happen and took only 13 billion years. What is asked in the monkeys example is something different. It consists to reproduce randomly twice a very specific result by driving another route. This is a real hypothesis!!! Its in the Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy, the first time they got onto the heart of gold(Infinite Improbability Drive is on), and Arther says, "Ford, there's an infinite amount of monkeys who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they worked up". What is this called, does it have a name?
michel123456 Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 My comment is not genuine. I read it in some book, cannot recall where.
Moontanman Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 The fact that they sighted the helicopter means the presence of outsiders was known, i.e. there was obvious evidence. I've been thinking of this post for several days I just can't ignore such wonderful straight line... Later that evening when the entire tribe get together for their evening meal in the great house. The handful that saw the helicopter tell all the others what they have seen the others think on it and ask if they can show it again? The people saw it say " I can't show it to you, it just showed up in the sky i have no idea what it was other than it was something real. The skeptics ask if a piece of it fell off? The ones who saw it say "I just saw it and heard it, nothing fell off of it" The skeptics say, tell us again when you have a piece of it so to show us, just seeing something is meaningless and eye witness testimony is always suspect.... 1
Lightmeow Posted April 26, 2014 Posted April 26, 2014 @Moontanman That is something that you need to copyright, then send to the science community...
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 26, 2014 Author Posted April 26, 2014 (edited) THE BIG BANG On this time line the Big Bang can be occupying many 100,s 1,000,s 1,000,000 ,s. Yes millions of years or more . ...............I ...............I....here ...............I. In the picture above our time line could be represented by the descending grid line , starting with the Big Bang at the top, The term THE BIG BANG could not be a more misleading name : [The] infers one. where as many scientists feel the activity of the big bang was a multiple activity , including what I am suggesting above with the big bang being contrived across the orthogonal top time line. [bIG ] If was not big by current recconing, somewhere about the size of an atom to a pea. [bANG] Bang engenders the idea of a sudden explosion, which is uncontrolled, shocking , pretty random, beyond analysis because an explosion is over before you , can run, take cover and come to terms with what has happened [ fireworks, quarry rock mining etc]. Whereas If this was a well constructed project , controlled , monitored and part of a sequence of parts arranged in an orthogonal dimension , and only the final process passing into our time line , Then less of a shock mystery as to how it could be done . True conceptually the orthogonal time line with Observers ,might be a different paradigm, to get your head round . It is however Yes its right, or No its not . mike Edited April 26, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
swansont Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 I've been thinking of this post for several days I just can't ignore such wonderful straight line... Later that evening when the entire tribe get together for their evening meal in the great house. The handful that saw the helicopter tell all the others what they have seen the others think on it and ask if they can show it again? The people saw it say " I can't show it to you, it just showed up in the sky i have no idea what it was other than it was something real. The skeptics ask if a piece of it fell off? The ones who saw it say "I just saw it and heard it, nothing fell off of it" The skeptics say, tell us again when you have a piece of it so to show us, just seeing something is meaningless and eye witness testimony is always suspect.... … but I can draw you a blurry sketch of what I saw. 1
SamBridge Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) We actually have evidence of alien life, they sent us a greeting message I am *expanding!* It is so much *squishy* to *smell* you!*Campers* are the best! I have *anticipation* and then what?Better parties in *the middle* for sure. Other than that, there's no way to assume any other life forms exist without evidence. Otherwise we might as well assume there's an invisible lasagna monster that's always stays 5 feet from us so that we never touch it. Edited April 27, 2014 by SamBridge
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 27, 2014 Author Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) We actually have evidence ........ YES! We do have evidence. It is written all across the sky , from every direction. The cosmic background radiation. Scientists are examining it in the minutest detail that our modern instruments can bring to bear. When George Smoot, leader of the first team to analyse it , saw it. He was shocked, and said " I have seen the face of ...... " We have reached up in recent years and been able to examine in ever increasing detail the ' evidence ' of that early crossover of TIME LINES . It flooded in , all that energy from a realm where this amount of energy could be easily gathered and manipulated, by superior ,benign , super scientists that would make us pale into oblivion. It is all there for us to examine, and reach out and ask about , should we be so inclined? It is as if the people on the ground in the Amazon jungle , did call out, were able to examine the helicopter and to be given evidence etc etc. Ask the G.. D.. Questions ! Mike Edited April 27, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
SamBridge Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Honestly I cannot figure out if you're just incessantly spamming. Isn't there some kind of "no preaching" policy? Edited April 27, 2014 by SamBridge
Marshalscienceguy Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 Without OBVIOUS evidence ? We are constantly looking for evidence of other life existing in nearby or further away places. What happens if there indeed is further life forms , superior to the human race , far more developed , with skills both technically and intellectually far superior to us , who are " as we speak " , observing our human civilization , together with its current handling of the finite resources on our planet. Should they make their presence known, keep secret , Or what . That is of course IF THEY EXIST ? How could we find out , IF in fact they exist, and if so , have they anything to say? Forget 'Bug eyed monsters ' I am talking about Superior beings ? What might they look like? That is , if they did not want to shock us ? Which I am sure if they are superior ...They would not want to shock us ? Big Questions / Thoughts ? Mike Yes, I believe its possible.
Moontanman Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 … but I can draw you a blurry sketch of what I saw. I can give you some damn good pictures...
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 27, 2014 Author Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) I can give you some damn good pictures... Are you guys getting into the spirit, of the seriousness of this matter, or are you humoring me. ? If I am right and there was some higher, benign superior life forms there then you might miss out. No questions! No Answers ! if i am wrong , then I just need to take a rain check. Ask the g.. d.. Questions. " He who does not ask does not get. " They are under some form of Non insistent intervention self governing laws. So they cannot respond unless Asked. Surely you followed the series STAR TREK Non Interference Protocol . Where were you guys, when we were glued to the TV in our younger years? Mike Ask the g.. d.. questions ! Edited April 27, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
Moontanman Posted April 27, 2014 Posted April 27, 2014 Are you guys getting into the spirit, of the seriousness of this matter, or are you humoring me. ? If I am right and there was some higher, benign superior life forms there then you might miss out. No questions! No Answers ! if i am wrong , then I just need to take a rain check. Ask the g.. d.. Questions. " He who does not ask does not get. " They are under some form of Non insistent intervention self governing laws. So they cannot respond unless Asked. Surely you followed the series STAR TREK Non Interference Protocol . Where were you guys, when we were glued to the TV in our younger years? Mike Ask the g.. d.. questions ! Even I, who loves to talk UFOs, knows that all we have is a number of sightings that cannot be explained by conventional means. Lots of data but no answers, it bothers me when people brush off the evidence we have as silly or stupid because it's more along the lines of how meteorites were treated until a couple hundred or so years ago. Rocks could not fall from the sky, no amount of evidence could show rocks could fall from the sky even when such rocks were presented for inspection. A higher power as you say is not impossible but it needs to be defined much closer before i would take a real shot at it. Could there be? Of course there could be, we can speculate til the cows come home but until we can search for positive evidence it has to remain speculation... 4
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 28, 2014 Author Posted April 28, 2014 (edited) Could there be? Of course there could be, we can speculate til the cows come home but until we can search for positive evidence it has to remain speculation... [ emphasis mine] mks But I have searched.... and I did the only thing I could do... That was to ask the most profound questions I could muster at the time . Like .. ~~~~~ Is there anyone there ? ~~~~ How did this Whole Lot come about ? etc mike ~~~~~~ Ask the g.. d.. questions ? Edited April 28, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
Moontanman Posted April 28, 2014 Posted April 28, 2014 But I have searched.... and I did the only thing I could do... That was to ask the most profound questions I could muster at the time . Like .. ~~~~~ Is there anyone there ? ~~~~ How did this Whole Lot come about ? etc mike ~~~~~~ Ask the g.. d.. questions ? The best answer than can be given is "I don't know"... My own personal opinion is that by limiting our search to planets we might be missing the mark by quite a bit, i see no reason for advanced civilizations to frequent gravity wells, everything you need to survive is available with out ever setting foot on a planet. The only thing missing is a viable energy source, fusion could be that source if it is possible to control it on a scale significantly smaller than a star..
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 28, 2014 Author Posted April 28, 2014 (edited) famous Scientist ENRICO FERMI :- The basic points of the argument, made by physicists Enrico Fermi and Michael H. Hart, are: The Sun is a young star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are billions of years older; some of these stars probably have Earth-like planets[2] which, if the Earth is typical, may develop intelligent life; presumably, some of these civilizations will develop interstellar travel, a technology Earth is investigating even now, such as that used in the proposed 100 Year Starship; at any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in a few tens of millions of years. According to this line of thinking, the Earth should already have been colonized, or at least visited. But no convincing evidence of this exists. Furthermore, no confirmed signs of intelligence (see Empirical resolution attempts) elsewhere have been spotted, either in our galaxy or in the more than 80 billion other galaxies of theobservable universe. Hence Fermi's question, "Where is everybody? There could be a different line of reasoning. That they are about, somewhere else, but have rules about revealing themselves to other conscious life unilaterally. . Like, they can not just go about barging into other conscious being lives, unless asked. . If I am wrong you will get no response. If I an right then you may get a response of some sort or other. mike Edited April 28, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
Moontanman Posted April 28, 2014 Posted April 28, 2014 famous Scientist ENRICO FERMI :- There could be a different line of reasoning. That they are about, somewhere else, but have rules about revealing themselves to other conscious life unilaterally. . Like, they can not just go about barging into other conscious being lives, unless asked. . If I am wrong you will get no response. If I an right then you may get a response of some sort or other. mike Or as i suggested they have limited interest in planets and do not care to interact with beings that live on them, could be the occasional scientific expedition if they are living in the other reaches of a planetary system with a life bearing planet but their observations would be brief, probably from as far away as possible..
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted April 29, 2014 Author Posted April 29, 2014 (edited) Or as i suggested they have limited interest in planets and do not care to interact with beings that live on them, could be the occasional scientific expedition if they are living in the other reaches of a planetary system with a life bearing planet but their observations would be brief, probably from as far away as possible.. One of the strangest ( to me ) answers I got to one of my profound questions , could relate to your statement, I was similar in rough belief, that things were likely to be far away. The profound question I asked was threefold as I had set up the protocol. ( involving these profound questions) Either (1) to the left ( some central location eg at the centre of the universe ,or some one single HQ type location ?) Or (2) to the right (distributed centres across the whole universe say per galaxy, local group or whatever ? ) Or (3) centre. ( everywhere . ) The answer I got shook me rather, surprised me, and has left me to this day feeling ..well...and wondering ,how ? ) The answer immediately Was (3) EVERYWHERE Do with that , what you will . I am still trying to get my head round it, as it was not at all what I was expecting ! Mike Edited April 29, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
Moontanman Posted April 29, 2014 Posted April 29, 2014 One of the strangest ( to me ) answers I got to one of my profound questions , could relate to your statement, I was similar in rough belief, that things were likely to be far away. The profound question I asked was threefold as I had set up the protocol. ( involving these profound questions) Either (1) to the left ( some central location eg at the centre of the universe ,or some one single HQ type location ?) Or (2) to the right (distributed centres across the whole universe say per galaxy, local group or whatever ? ) Or (3) centre. ( everywhere . ) The answer I got shook me rather, surprised me, and has left me to this day feeling ..well...and wondering ,how ? ) The answer immediately Was (3) EVERYWHERE Do with that , what you will . I am still trying to get my head round it, as it was not at all what I was expecting ! Mike I wasn't suggesting far away, in fact i think it's quite possible that aliens already occupy much of the galaxy, just not planets...
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted May 15, 2014 Author Posted May 15, 2014 (edited) Mike, Couple of things. As already pointed out, the machete negates the "uncontacted" tribe thing.. And as already pointed out, the helicopter is not a magical thing. They have seen such, before. It is a "real" part of their world. (Which is as much theirs as ours, and neither us nor them have any special rights to it, over the other), This leads me to believe that your fear that the world would fall apart, would we have confirmed knowledge of other than Earth Based life/societies/technology, is most probably unfounded. As SwansonT noted, if a thing was real, it would be scientifically verifiable and completely acceptable as an occurence. Nobody is liable to have their heads fall off in response. Quite the opposite would probably occur, with responses like "oh, THAT's what they look like", that makes sense...I figured as much, all along. I hope they don't leave litter on the beach, or steal my girlfriend, or refuse to pay the visitor tax. And another assumption you are making, that has already been pointed out as possibly false, is that they would even care what we thought about their presence. It is completely possible that other than Earth evolved life, exists in the universe, but that life would not have to go by our rules, since they do not have our history. Niether our environmental history, nor our cultural history. Their technology might not even be comprable, and they might easily go by completely different standards, and exist on a different time and size scale than would be pertinent to us. In other words, a possible alien could visit the Earth and not even consider us, one way or the other. Like we could take a walk through the woods and never ask the salamander if she minded. And then, as well, there could be life somewhere, right now, that would say hello, if they knew about us, but don't know about us. An "uncontacted" race of this type could experience a rise and fall in reach and technology, and we could never find out about them, and they could never find out about us. And both them and us would be scientifically real, and members of "this" universe. I don't think we need superior folk to explain our condition. They are liable to be experiencing the same universe as we do, and therefore,would have the same cosmic history, belong to the same reality, and would be at a similar loss to explain why there is something, rather than nothing, as we are at. Regards, TAR . As FERMI ( the famous scientist , Physicist.). Said "Enrico Fermi was an Italian physicist, best known for his work on Chicago Pile-1, and for his contributions to the development of quantum theory, nuclear and particle physics, and statistical mechanics. Wikipedia " quote Wikipedia ....) FERMI Said " IF there are other superior beings ...... " WHERE ARE THEY " ? ... "they should be here " [ I am asking , " If they are Here , Why are they so QUIET. ? " ] If they are there , what do we need to do to make them talk? And if there isn't anybody out there in the whole universe, why are we taking so much time and money to explore for other life throughout the universe , which if there were other life forms, they would have likely developed , long since, into far superior beings than us by now ? Maybe they are here . But very quiet ! . .? Why , and how can we get them to respond ? And where is here ,? For that matter. Because, if, as ...'.Moontanman .'... Said they are ' in the galaxy ' , ( far advanced communication methods could easily overcome distance ) ? I wasn't suggesting far away, in fact i think it's quite possible that aliens already occupy much of the galaxy, just not planets... Mootanman quote Mike Edited May 15, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
tar Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 Mike, Advanced communication techniques? Do we have any that allow us to question and answer at say a relatively short distance of 100 lys? Logically, if one is considering the whole universe, there are two considerations that I think you are making improperly. One, that there has been enough time, for other lifeforms to get "way" more advanced than us, and two, that if there was another species doing something fantastic 100,000 lys from here, they would have a way to notice or care about us. For instance, we have known how to get into space for 50 years, and none of us has left the Moon/Earth system, yet. We have a number of spacecraft/probes out, as far as Mars and even the heliopause, so we are sensing rather far out, but these distances are small, compared to the size of our Milkyway. It takes 14 minutes for light to reach from the Earth to the Mars Probe. Consider if you were the Mars probe, wondering why the people that put you together and sent you on a mission, were so quiet, and refused to answer your questions. If some "other" race was responsible for us, it would really be the earlier manefestations of our race, that would have been responsible for us. And "talking" with them would be similar to "talking" with cavemen, or dinosaurs, or the first mitochondria...as in you can listen to what they have to say, but they are not listening to you, and can not respond. Any conversation we can have with a species on the other side of the Milkyway would have to be a very long and drawn out one, considering the time it takes any impulse, much less peice of matter, to get from one location to the other, and back. If you were to get a message in a bottle (made of 18th century glass, on 18th century parchment, in 18th century English prose and style,), would you wonder why the guy or gal was so silent, when you yelled across the sea "WHAT DID YOU MEAN BY THAT!"? Regards, TAR
Mike Smith Cosmos Posted May 15, 2014 Author Posted May 15, 2014 (edited) Mike, Advanced communication techniques? ........................................................."WHAT DID YOU MEAN BY THAT!"? Regards, TAR If communications and/or travel are going to always be limited to a maximum of the speed of light , we will be forever trapped, pretty well into an area quite small in the universe. ( both by communications and travel - quite lonely ) If on the other hand, we can contemplate somehow , in the future, finding a way to leave the confines of the limiting speed of electro magnetic waves, not so much by reaching ever more incredible speed but rather by penetrating a possible orthogonal time dimension, [namely a different time dimension at 90 degrees to the timeline running out from the big bang through our present day some 13.7 billion years on into the future. ] . Were such a dimension to exist, and we were able to gain access to it. we would be able to communicate instantly across the entire universe. Then by some means travel may also in the future be possible in that dimension, but maybe not (only maybe by proxy ) . The down time line is our timeline (Big Bang through 13.7 billion years and on) The orthogonal time line is at 90 degrees across the top , and this time line moving down as our time progresses. A big IF ... IF.. now a previous civilisation , ahead of us , has already discovered, and/ penetrated this suggested orthogonal dimension, . They will already have this capability! So I am back to a comment a couple of posts ago. Where are they ? , and if they are silently there , here, how can we encourage them to talk ? I refer back to previous reasoning , that it would be unlikely that they would force communication on us. We need to start the ball rolling , should we be interested or inclined so to do. ** .... Think of it , if they have the capability that I suggested MIGHT be possible in OUR future. It is already (possibly ) in their future , namely our right now , complete with the capability. [To hear your every word, if they respectfully chose]... BUT only to answer if requested ! So as I keep saying. {. Ask the g.. d.. Question ..} .... ** Mike Edited May 15, 2014 by Mike Smith Cosmos
tar Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 Mike, Well, if there was time travel EVER possible, somebody would have already traveled back from the future to now, and back to 1834, and back to the day before Hiroshima and so on. Since we have no evidence that anybody has done that, it would indicate to me, that no one is going to learn how to do it. Ever. If on the other hand we, in the future, go back and show the Egyptians how to build pyramids, and seed the Earth with humankind and so on, it would force an impossible situation where there never was a situation where humankind came into existence, on its own. To me, the only logical situation, is one in which whatever exists emerged from the previous situation. I have no particular way to prove this, but it requires that everything that is currently happening in the universe is happening for the first time. And what we see happening 196000 miles away, actually happened for the first time a second ago and what we see happening a billion lys away, happened for the first time a billion years ago. So yes, it does sort of trap us into this particular corner of the universe, at this particular moment in time, but it also allows us to see the rest, from here and now. And it keeps us, from being everything at once, which would be rather a vague and useless condition. But perhaps this is way above my pay grade and is asking some existential questions that I really have not even a wish or a guess in the direction of an answer to. Whatever the situation, it appears as if we all, at the moment are in the same here and now, give or take the circumference of the Earth, and the couple of seconds it takes a signal to do the circuit. And given the size of the universe we have yet to explore, I would hardly consider we are trapped. And considering the age of the universe already, and the prospects for it continuing for some time, I would guess we have not yet done everything there is to do...not by a very long, and unconfining shot. Regards. TAR
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