K-Ton Asteroid Impacts More Common the Thought Previously

[EdEarl]

 

universetoday.com

 

This Earth Day, Tuesday, April 22, three former NASA astronauts will present new evidence that our planet has experienced many more large-scale asteroid impacts over the past decade than previously thought… three to ten times more, in fact. A new visualization of data from a nuclear weapons warning network, to be unveiled by B612 Foundation CEO Ed Lu during the evening event at Seattle’s Museum of Flight, shows that “the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a ‘city-killer’ sized asteroid is blind luck.”

 

Since 2001, 26 atomic-bomb-scale explosions have occurred in remote locations around the world, far from populated areas, made evident by a nuclear weapons test warning network. In a recent press release B612 Foundation CEO Ed Lu states:

 

“This network has detected 26 multi-kiloton explosions since 2001, all of which are due to asteroid impacts. It shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare — but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought. The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a ‘city-killer’ sized asteroid is blind luck. The goal of the B612 Sentinel mission is to find and track asteroids decades before they hit Earth, allowing us to easily deflect them.”

Sooner or later a city will be hit.

[Greg H.]

And sooner or later, we'll get another E.L.E. impact. The problem is getting people to worry about things that may not happen durig their lifetimes. As a species, we're very short sighted, despite our intelligence.

[Phi for All]

Right now, in space, every country wants the benefits without the responsibilities. We could really use some smart cooperation here. Building a global defense system might be a great cultural and economic project for all.

 

Just don't call it Skynet.

[Greg H.]

Right now, in space, every country wants the benefits without the responsibilities. We could really use some smart cooperation here. Building a global defense system might be a great cultural and economic project for all.

 

Just don't call it Skynet.

Or some venture capital? We could call it "Starguard", and charge counties a (relatively) small fee based on land area to provide early warnings.

 

Bundle with "Waveguard tsunami detection now, and save 20%".

[swansont]

And sooner or later, we'll get another E.L.E. impact. The problem is getting people to worry about things that may not happen durig their lifetimes. As a species, we're very short sighted, despite our intelligence.

 

Yup. The trajectory this takes is that we get an impact that hits a populated area and some part of the populace blames science for not doing anything to prevent it, irrespective of the fact that nobody was willing to pony up the cash. Now it's crisis mode, so there's an overreaction. It becomes a thing for a while, but when a new threat does not immediately emerge, enough people start questioning why we are paying for the system and it dies from lack of support. Whether that happens before deployment or after is really the only question, IMO.

 

Now I feel like re-reading The Dragonriders of Pern (first book, at least)

[michel123456]

Sooner or later a city will be hit.

Looks like a fund raising approach for a scientific research more than anything else.

 

The B612 Foundation is partnered with Ball Aerospace to build the Sentinel Infrared Space Telescope Mission. Once positioned in solar orbit closer to the Sun from Earth, Sentinel will look outwards in infrared to detect hundreds of thousands of as-yet unknown near-Earth objects over 140 meters in size. The privately-funded spacecraft is slated to launch in 2017-18 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.

 

from your link http://www.universetoday.com/111278/astronauts-to-reveal-sobering-data-on-asteroid-impacts/

And I don't know about a "nuclear weapons test warning network" other than the CTBT* one.

See http://www.ctbto.org/verification-regime/

 

*Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)

[Acme]

Right now, in space, every country wants the benefits without the responsibilities. We could really use some smart cooperation here. Building a global defense system might be a great cultural and economic project for all.

 

Just don't call it Skynet.

Will SMPAG do? [say same page] The work worldwide has been underway for some time regardless of the name of the rose, however the event in Russia last year did help spark interest according to this report.

 

United Nations Takes Aim at Asteroid Threat to Earth

 

As the anniversary of last year's surprise Russian meteor explosion nears, a United Nations action team is taking steps to thwart dangerous space rocks, including setting up a warning network and a planning advisory group that would coordinate a counterpunch to cosmic threats.

 

A global group of experts on near-Earth objects (NEOs) met in Vienna Feb. 10 to11 for the 51st session of the United Nations' Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Space.

...

In the event that an Earth-threatening space rock is detected, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Space could help to facilitate a spacecraft mission intended to deflect that object from its collision course with Earth, experts say.

 

The primary purpose of a Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) pronounced "same page" is to prepare for a worldwide response to a NEO threat through the exchange of information, development of options for collaborative research and mission opportunities, and to conduct NEO threat mitigation planning activities. ...

source: >> http://news.yahoo.com/united-nations-takes-aim-asteroid-threat-earth-114841316.html?vp=1

[Phi for All]

Will SMPAG do? [say same page] The work worldwide has been underway for some time regardless of the name of the rose, however the event in Russia last year did help spark interest according to this report.

 

source: >> http://news.yahoo.com/united-nations-takes-aim-asteroid-threat-earth-114841316.html?vp=1

 

Right now, IAWN (International Asteroid Warning Network) representatives would report a NEO to their respective governments, which would (theoretically) have SMPAG coordinate an actual mission to deflect. History working with various world governments regarding satellites, however, has taught us that NOBODY wants anything to do with taking responsibility for what their stuff does or fails to do in orbit. Space policy governance is always overshadowed by secretive military policy enforcement.

 

And China will just do whatever the frack they feel like doing, most likely with very little coordination with anyone else.

[Acme]

Right now, IAWN (International Asteroid Warning Network) representatives would report a NEO to their respective governments, which would (theoretically) have SMPAG coordinate an actual mission to deflect. History working with various world governments regarding satellites, however, has taught us that NOBODY wants anything to do with taking responsibility for what their stuff does or fails to do in orbit. Space policy governance is always overshadowed by secretive military policy enforcement.

 

And China will just do whatever the frack they feel like doing, most likely with very little coordination with anyone else.

Ok. But you said building a defense would be a great cultural & economic project and yet here you seem to suggest that's unachievable. I was simply giving reference to the most recent effort to work together that I was aware of .

 

While I don't have a ready reference just now, my understanding is that 'we' have found 95% of the asteroids/meteoroids large enough to inflict an extinction level event, and none of them are on a collision course for at least hundreds of years. It may be the case that worldwide cooperation to divert an impactor just isn't going to get juiced unless it's something large scale. At best if someone spots a city-leveler before the fact then an evacuation order will ensue as we already do with hurricanes, wildfires, floods, etcetera. As we used to say back in the day, duck & cover.

[Phi for All]

Ok. But you said building a defense would be a great cultural & economic project and yet here you seem to suggest that's unachievable.

 

Oh. I didn't mean to suggest "unacheivable" by pointing out why it's been historically difficult to govern space policy. I just meant to suggest it's... been historically difficult.

[Greg H.]

 

Oh. I didn't mean to suggest "unacheivable" by pointing out why it's been historically difficult to govern space policy. I just meant to suggest it's... been historically difficult.

Space is essentially the American Wild West circa 1850 at this point with a much higher barrier of entry.

[Phi for All]

Space is essentially the American Wild West circa 1850 at this point with a much higher barrier of entry.

 

... and a Microsoft approach to product release. We send up the satellites first, then spend decades trying to work out all the political bugs in the system.

 

It took 8 years to get SMPAG passed through the UN. It's a great step in the right direction, and gives us a real framework for global cooperation. I suppose I should be impressed it only took that long for all those countries to agree on protocols, but I get frustrated when politics trumps good science.

 

I get frustrated a lot.

[Greg H.]

I get frustrated a lot.

I find that vodka helps.

[Acme]

... Space policy governance is always overshadowed by secretive military policy enforcement. ...

Fortunately there are a lot of amateurs engaged in spotting asteroids and they are anything but secretive about it.

 

I find that vodka helps [frustration].

On the rocks, right?

Following up on my last post, I have this recent not-so-secret world-wide cooperative effort from NASA. As usual, should I be caught or killed, someone will disavow any knowledge of my actions.

 

To help educate people around the globe with the "101" information about asteroid hunting, NASA is sponsoring the Asteroid Grand Challenge Seminar Series throughout early 2014. These seminars will also be recorded and archived.

•Seminar Series Webcast Link: https://ac.arc.nasa.gov/nagcss/

•View Archived Seminars: http://sservi.nasa.gov/articles/events/category/seminar_series/past/

◦Apr 25: Dave Kring discusses examples and consequences of NEA impacts

◦May 9: Tim Spahr discusses the Minor Planet Center and the International Asteroid Warning Network

◦May 23: Dan Mazanek discusses NEA deflection strategies

...

source: >> http://agcnotes.wikispaces.com/

[Phi for All]

Here's a link to the visualization from B612 Foundation mentioned in the OP. A friend in space policy governance sent me the link this morning: https://b612foundation.org/portfolio/impact-video/

[Acme]

Here's a link to the visualization from B612 Foundation mentioned in the OP. A friend in space policy governance sent me the link this morning: https://b612foundation.org/portfolio/impact-video/

Nice find! Here's an impact calculator that allows the user to input size & speed of impactor, composition of impactor and impacted material, and observer distance from impact and outputs the result.

 

Welcome to the Earth Impact Effects Program: an easy-to-use, interactive web site for estimating the regional environmental consequences of an impact on Earth. This program will estimate the ejecta distribution, ground shaking, atmospheric blast wave, and thermal effects of an impact as well as the size of the crater produced.

 

Please enter values in the boxes below to describe your impact event of choice and your distance away. Then click "Calculate Effects" to learn about the environmental consequences.

snip ...

 

Tell me more... >> http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/effects.pdf

 

Click here for a pdf document that details the observations, assumptions, and equations upon which this program is based. It describes our approach to quantifying the important impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The processes included are: atmospheric entry, impact crater formation, fireball expansion and thermal radiation, ejecta deposition, seismic shaking, and the propagation of the atmospheric blast wave.

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

Edited April 23, 2014 by Acme