Karma and Confirmation Bias: A Good Formula?

[Phi for All]

I posted this in a more philosophical thread about forgiveness:

I use karma for me alone, since it's defined by what I think is important. Someone else could toss a bag of trash out the window and feel like they did a good thing by cleaning up their car.

Karma, for me, is like a mental filter. I set the parameters for things I want to see; a parking space without a shopping cart in the middle of it, a mother enjoying her time with her children, a pleasant nature hike that lets me step away from civilization briefly.

So I see the opportunities to return my carts and not block someone else's parking. I can pause in my day to hold the door open for the now-smiling lady with the stroller and a couple other wee ones in tow. And I try to leave only footprints when I hike, but I'm a species representative too, so I look for trash to pack out also.

There's nothing cosmic about karma to me, it's just lighting for the stage my life is playing on. Karma helps me mentally illuminate what I like to see.

 

I think confirmation bias is inevitable. We like what we like, and we justify a lot of things and constantly maneuver ourselves into situations where we get them. But it's dangerous, because what we like isn't always good for us.

 

I like the concept of karma, I just don't think there's anything magical about it. It's very satisfying and stress-relieving to have many of life's little parts fall into place seemingly just to please you. It feels like magic sometimes though, like motion detecting lights. I understand the mechanism, but I get a little extra thrill when the light comes on just because I walked into the room.

 

I think karma is a way to make confirmation bias work positively for you. Karma doesn't have to be some cosmic, mystical, universal-payback-machine. It can simply be a way to fix patterns you'd like to see happen in your life. You start giving people a break while driving, and you start noticing other people giving you a break. No magic, just pattern recognition.

 

Recently, I noticed I was tending to drive through a lot of yellow lights that got too close to being red. Particularly dangerous if there's someone wanting to turn left. They may assume you're going to stop, and start their left turn in front of you. So I told myself that was bad karma, and I needed to start looking for opportunities to stop faster. Now what I see are people who smile and wave at me as I let them turn left on the yellow, and I see lights that turn yellow just as I enter the intersection so I can easily go through. I'm no longer compelled to beat the light, and I get that karmic satisfaction every time.

 

What do you think? Is this a valid formula for overcoming at least some of the dangers of only seeing what you want to see?

 

 

[dimreepr]

For me karma is a direct appropriation of cause and effect; whilst conformational bias is the misappropriation of cause and effect.

 

They are therefore mutually exclusive; smile and the world smiles back, as opposed to smile and you get paid in cash.

[Phi for All]

For me karma is a direct appropriation of cause and effect; whilst conformational bias is the misappropriation of cause and effect.

 

They are therefore mutually exclusive; smile and the world smiles back, as opposed to smile and you get paid in cash.

 

I agree with the first sentence, but not the second. The misappropriation of cause and effect caused by CB can be used appropriately by using karma. It's like CB is the baseball pitching machine that's not aimed at home plate and you can't move it. Insisting it's mutually exclusive with karma is like insisting on standing with your bat next to home plate when the machine is pitching to the dugout. If you want to hit the ball, you have to move and take your stance where the balls are being pitched, right?

 

Overcoming CB is hard, but I'm not really talking about that. I see the inclination to confirm what you already like as a good way to help yourself recognize when those things you like happen every day. If I'm not thinking about giving people a break while I drive, I'm less likely to recognize it when they give me a break. Does that make sense?

 

I think the mechanism that causes confirmation bias can be used to help us find and use patterns we want to perpetuate.

[dimreepr]

 

I agree with the first sentence, but not the second. The misappropriation of cause and effect caused by CB can be used appropriately by using karma. It's like CB is the baseball pitching machine that's not aimed at home plate and you can't move it. Insisting it's mutually exclusive with karma is like insisting on standing with your bat next to home plate when the machine is pitching to the dugout. If you want to hit the ball, you have to move and take your stance where the balls are being pitched, right?

 

OK, yes, I see your point.

Overcoming CB is hard, but I'm not really talking about that. I see the inclination to confirm what you already like as a good way to help yourself recognize when those things you like happen every day. If I'm not thinking about giving people a break while I drive, I'm less likely to recognize it when they give me a break. Does that make sense?

 

I think this bleeds into the realm of temporary truths, like when you’re in a hurry, you expect others to understand the need and react favourably and when you’re not, it’s difficult to understand why everyone else is; Recognition seems to be the key word here.

I think the mechanism that causes confirmation bias can be used to help us find and use patterns we want to perpetuate.

 

 

Selfish needs and wants, is I think at the heart of this and the more one can overcome that, the better for all.

[Phi for All]

I think this bleeds into the realm of temporary truths, like when you’re in a hurry, you expect others to understand the need and react favourably and when you’re not, it’s difficult to understand why everyone else is; Recognition seems to be the key word here.

That's a tough one. Most of why the karma/confirmation bias relationship works in a limited fashion for me is because I have time to react appropriately. Being in a hurry messes that up quickly. Being in a hurry is one of our worst set of circumstances, because we have the least amount of time for recognition.

 

I'd like to talk about this one more. There should be a way to reciprocate others in a hurry if you want that kind of treatment when you are.

 

Selfish needs and wants, is I think at the heart of this and the more one can overcome that, the better for all.

Selfish needs and wants, OK. Let's go with that.

 

I want a parking space free of carts, that's selfish I suppose. So I always put my carts where they belong, and this makes me extra aware of when I enter a parking lot and find a space free of carts. I feel good when I put my cart away, and I feel good when I get a clear space. Selfish and selfish, I guess.

 

But I'm not interested in overcoming this at all. Where's the downside to this bit of selfishness on my part? I don't see how it's better for all if I don't think this way. I'm acknowledging that confirmation bias can be very bad for the person who wants to be honest with himself and the way he treats the world. I'm also acknowledging that it seems an almost insurmountable obstacle to overcome. But maybe I can use it.

 

Karma, Pay It Forward, whatever you want to call it, it just seems to me that it's really just a mental filter, making you aware of certain actions. I let someone into traffic because it not only helps the flow, it feels good for me and helps someone else. Without actively thinking about it, I'm looking out for situations where it makes sense to give a little. And as a by-product, I'm also looking out for situations where people do me a good turn. I'm filtering for pleasant experiences where I usually expect frustration. And at the time I'm doing a good turn for someone, I'm not thinking about payback. In fact, it works best when you're surprised by any reciprocity. It makes your life feel like everything is clicking into place.

 

Horrible, awful, selfish me. I hold doors for people on account of I'm greedy.

[dimreepr]

I think in the long term CB would show that it wouldn’t be a good formula.

 

“Today’s privilege is tomorrows right” is essentially, for me, the reason the formula doesn’t work.

 

As the karma spreads and people, as a matter of course let others out in traffic, it would eventually become the cultural norm and therefore it would be expected.

 

We all know the phrase “if you don’t expect you won’t be disappointed” some of us apply this rule of thumb, but we only tend to apply it to the big things; but the fast majority of our expectations are hidden: like turning on the lights, certain behaviour, cultural norms, communication etc..The disappointment, however, is just great as the big stuff, often more so and anger can easily be the result; anger as we know is very destructive, and in my opinion a useless emotion, in this context, in all sorts of ways not least of which is how it effects karma, you tend not to smile, be grumpy with everyone and be much less likely to let someone out in traffic.

Edited June 19, 2014 by dimreepr

[Ophiolite]

I don't think we should overlook the immense pleasure to be gained from being disappointed and grumpy.

[Phi for All]

I can see your point. We do tend to eventually ignore the patterns once we've found and identified them. This could lead us to expect certain behavior on a more frequent basis.

 

So far in my practice of using this formula, I haven't become jaded or expect certain behavior from others. CB sort of guarantees I'll ignore what I'm not looking for in favor of what I want, so I'm exploiting that by wanting things that seem to have a universal appeal. I don't know anyone who likes having to get out of their car to move a cart out of a parking space.

 

As the karma spreads and people, as a matter of course let others out in traffic, it would eventually become the cultural norm and therefore it would be expected.

 

Driving seems to be an area of frustration where this karma/confirmation bias works really well for me. I'm not a racer; I don't have to be out front. I'm a bit of a pack driver; I tend to stay (for however long) with a pack of other drivers who just want to keep moving, don't make a lot of sudden moves, and maintain a fairly consistent speed. I'm leery of other drivers who want to cut in, since I have no idea how they're going to fit in with my temporary "pack" (after all, they're trying to cut in, who knows what they'll do next!).

 

So I recognize that this is the way I've been conditioned. But recent studies show that it's this very type of behavior (following too closely, not using signals for fear other drivers won't let you merge, braking a lot, etc) that causes bad traffic in the first place. If we all backed off the car in front of us and gave more space for merging, traffic would flow smoother for everyone. So I think this is one instance, at least, where adopting this strategy as a cultural norm, something to be expected of all of us, would be the best thing possible.

 

And don't discount the multiple benefits of a lack of traffic gridlock. We'd save time and fuel, our cars would last a little longer, we probably wouldn't need to expand the road systems as often, we'd pollute less, and we'd be more efficient drivers. And personally, I think this would reduce a great deal of stress on most drivers, every day.

I don't think we should overlook the immense pleasure to be gained from being disappointed and grumpy.

 

Then let's don't.

 

Let's assume it's in everyone's best interest for you to search out the people who are supposed to bring satisfaction to others but always seem to disappoint. Clerks who should be helpful but aren't. Receptionists who don't know who does what at their companies. Anyone in foodservice who can't smile.

 

Now you simply filter for those folks, and figure out what will simultaneously help the rest of us out while making you feel immense pleasure at being disappointed. I would suggest getting your grump on with an extremely well-worded admonishment designed to shake up that person and make them re-assess their life choices.

 

If you ever decide to adopt this formula, let me know. I would go to great lengths to have someone follow you with a video camera in hopes of catching you in rare form, possibly for my own entertainment, possibly as the next HBO Pay-per-View vehicle.

[dimreepr]

On reflection, all that would be needed for this formula too, not only work but, become a self perpetuating phenomenon; educations the key, teach others the pit falls of expectation and how karma creates peace.

 

It’s great to be wrong in this context.