The new Caliphate

[Irbis]

This event went appears to not have been noticed here while it's significant to world geopolitics.

 

On 29th June 2014 Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIS) declared the reestablishment of the Caliphate - a theological dictatorship uniting all Muslims worldwide. It's the first such attempt since 1924 when the Ottoman Empire ceased to exist, replaced by a secular republic. ISIS leader, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, A.K.A Abu Dua A.K.A Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Al Badri Al Samarri was choosen as a caliph. He holds a Ph.D in Islamic jurisprudence from Baghdad University and has been a militant since the US-led invasion of Iraq. After a blitzkrieg in June/July his state now controls most of northern Iraq and eastern Syria and ha begun large scale operations against Assad.

 

The declaration seems to have been received positively by large groups of Muslims worldwide, with pro-ISIS riots erupting in several countries.

 

Quite detailed summary of the concept of Caliphate can be found on wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caliphate

Edited July 18, 2014 by Irbis

[tomgwyther]

Glad some one brough it up. I'll be interested to see how this new Caliphate pan out. looks like the plan is to stradle the old Sykes Picot line, as it was before WWI.

IMHO, it's yet another fascist dictatorship, based on primitive tribal god images. It will eventually fail, but not before a lot of blood has been spilled.

 

For now I shall just watch and wait

 

[Irbis]

For those who are interested - here is a video of Baghdadi's public appearance in the mosque in Mosul (with eng sub)

 

Warning - there is nothing overtly interesting here, except the fact that he's a walking and talking quran.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOORW63ioY0

Edited July 18, 2014 by Irbis

[iNow]

So, what precisely is the point you wish to discuss? Inability to more precisely set the topic parameters will likely lead to a thread full of religion bashing, us/them tribal comments, and prompt closure by forum staff.

[studiot]

Thank you Tom, old maps are one of my hobbies.

 

Do you have any more information about it?

 

Edit I have found more here. Interesting history that I know nothing of.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement

Edited July 18, 2014 by studiot

[Irbis]

@iNow:

Mostly I want to discuss short and long term (geo)political consequences for the region as well as the influence that the new state entity will have on islamist ideology all around the world. Things related to their ideology and whether they have correct understanding of it or not should not be discussed in this thread.

 

Interesting events are going on in Syria now. After a de-facto collapse of the Iraqi army IS who up to that moment had been fighting almost exclusively with Kurds and other rebel groups, began their offensive against the Syrian regime. They captured Deir Ez Zor as well as She'ar gas field in eastern Homs province, killing 23-90 regime militants (fate of the remaining 270 of them is not known) + 11 workers. Now they control about 35% of Syria, many smaller rebel brigades began pledging allegiance to them.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Irbis

[studiot]

 

Mostly I want to discuss short and long term (geo)political consequences for the region as well as the influence that the new state entity will have on islamist ideology all around the world.

 

More to the point whose money are they spending since states in this region are not self supporting.

[iNow]

I believe it's some of that $425 million they stole early in their campaign.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/12/isis-just-stole-425-million-and-became-the-worlds-richest-terrorist-group/

Update: $450 million according to this one: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101757191

[CharonY]

 

The declaration seems to have been received positively by large groups of Muslims worldwide, with pro-ISIS riots erupting in several countries.

 

I think this assertion is very problematic and masks a lot of important points. Specifically the term "muslims" has to be more specific in this context. Specifically, the conflict involves different denominations of Islam as well as conflicts between various ethnic groups. ISIS is comprised of Sunni insurgent groups and are known for their anti-Shiasm. Thus one could interpret it that their goal is to create a Sunni rather than an Islamic state (which would incorporate other denominations). Even worse, they follow an extreme interpretation and acting out brutalities which are so bad that even al-Qaeda severed their ties with them. It is somewhat impossible to discuss this group without a closer look at their ideology. Even the declaration of a caliphate can be interpreted as a stab at other Muslim groups since they criticized the Ottoman empire and the later caliphates as impure.

 

As such they are collection of radicalized Sunni insurgents but likely have little hope to gain support from the general Muslim population.

[Irbis]

Of course I was talking about Sunnis. Shias have completely different concept of political succession (imamate instead of caliphate).

 

I would like to limit ideological discussion to the minimum but people can still ask me questions as I feel knowledgeable in the matter.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Irbis

[Endy0816]

How much realistic support do they have in terms of governments giving up autonomy?

[Irbis]

I don't know what exactly you mean... If you mean how they rule - they set their own administrative structures, including their own police, tax bureaus, religious schools, media offices and military training facilities. They have also set up several structures dealing with economy, power etc - but their effectiveness is not known. I don't know whether they keep at least a part of the old personel, certainly not if they're Shias or Alawis - these are killed on the spot

 

What is known about them is that in terms of using modern technology they have left all other jihadist movements far behind:

- They issue their own online magazines which look professional (as far as I know, no insurgency in the world ever had this):

- They have their own computer databases of individuals whom they consider their enemies.

- They collect a large amount of data about their own performance, analyze in a regular army-like manner and seem to be able to learn from their own mistakes as well as other groups' experienced (before them only Hezbollah did this)

Edited July 18, 2014 by Irbis

[tomgwyther]

 

Thank you Tom, old maps are one of my hobbies.

Do you have any more information about it?

Edit I have found more here. Interesting history that I know nothing of

I've been hunting around for the article in 'The Week' which studied this new caliphate in more detail. Can't see to find it though. Shame.

I'm beginning to wonder if the abolishion of the old European drawn borders, followed by the establishing of a (albeit deeply moraly disagreeable) Sunni state is such a bad idea. Who knows, maybe it will stabilize the region.

[Irbis]

I seriously doubt it will stabilize anything. Note that according to Islam the establishment of the Caliphate automatically renders all other state entities in the world illegal - they must either submit to Islam or face war. So, if anything, it will bring even more war to the region.

[iNow]

^^... Or cause the much more numerous/populous moderate believers to reject extremism and find partners from different religions and worldviews with whom to partner and move forward.

 

When fires like these are burning towns, people of different cultures and mind sets often come together to help one another extinguish them.

 

With that said, I readily stipulate that it's become unfortunately more difficult to find or hear those moderate voices.

[Irbis]

With that said, I readily stipulate that it's become unfortunately more difficult to find or hear those moderate voices.

 

In societies based on personality cult speaking your mind is not always safe. Basically they have been using the same methods since the time of their prophet, of casting so much terror into the hearts of people that nobody dares to speak out and those who do are either silenced by the authority of the Qur'an/Sunns (life examples of their prophet) or literally silenced by bullets.

 

In such an atmosphere of terror truth is the first casualty, unfortunately.

 

Some news from Syria. The attack on the She'ar gas field proved to be a victory for Assad forces - but a costly one. 270 soldiers and militiamen were either killed or executed after the battle by ISIS and 60 more were killed during a counter-attack. An extremely pyrric victory considering that ISIS detachment that seized the field consisted of only 100 men.

[iNow]

In such an atmosphere of terror truth is the first casualty, unfortunately.

Much as happens in the United States. See also: Fox News

[Irbis]

ISIS began their assault on 17th Division base near Ar Raqqa which has been besieged by other rebels for more than a year. 17th Division is the last regime stronghold in the province.

[Irbis]

There are reports of 75 Assad soldiers captured and beheaded by ISIS in a village north of 17th division base, not confirmed yet.

 

I'm fearing for Syrian Christians... What to do when facing such an onslaught of pure savagery?

[iNow]

I'm fearing for Syrian Christians.

Why not Syrians of other worldviews who are also being impacted?

[Irbis]

I don't care how many Sunnis, Shias or Alawis are killed... Even if they all get killed, I will not give a damn. Christians are closer to my civilization and hence closer to me even though I am myself an atheist. Arab Christians have historically been the most progressive group in the Arab world - the leading theoreticians of the 20th century Arab secularism were Christians, they have also been the most prosperous Arab group. In the 1950s, before being robbed of their wealth by Nasser, Copts produced 50% of Egyptian GDP while constituting 15% of the population. And there are no Christian militias that stone adulterers, execute apostates and force women to cover themselves with bedsheets - which distinguishes them from their Muslim compatriots.

 

It's heartbreaking that these beautiful people face such a sad fate... They are crying for help but nobody wants to listen - oil from Islamist sheikhs is more important geopolitics-wise.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Irbis

[iNow]

I don't care how many Sunnis, Shias or Alawis are killed... Even if they all get killed, I will not give a damn.

More heartbreaking still is how sentiments such as these persist in our modern age.

[Irbis]

Nope.

[imatfaal]

I don't care how many Sunnis, Shias or Alawis are killed... Even if they all get killed, I will not give a damn. ..

 

Wow - it is quite rare to see such a clear indication of someone thinking they are part of the solution when in reality they are part of the problem.

[Irbis]

I have a solution... The first part of it would be establishing an Arab Christian state made of Lebanon, Syrian Tartus and Latakia provinces as well as Turkish Hatay province. That would be a good starting point in our struggle to return Greater Middle East to the fold of Western Civilization. We may also arm Egyptian Copts (~10 mln people) to teeth with cutting edge weaponry and make them overthrow the government. If I ruled Europe, I would do this.

 

in Syria 17th division was overran, reports of extremely heavy casualties on the government side.

Captured weapons include

- 1500 pistols

- 3000 assault rifles

- 200 tanks (I'm highly suspicious of this)

- 100 cannons of various callibres

- 30 mortars

- Large number (hundreds?) of MANPADs (portable anti aircraft missile launchers)

- Large number of grenade launchers and other heavy weapons

- lots of ammo

 

Reports that about 1500 ISIS fighters are taking part in the transport of captured weaponry, lots of civilians also broke into the remnants of the base.

 

http://justpaste.it/gdmv - photos from the base (EXTREMELY GRAPHIC!!!)

Edited July 26, 2014 by Irbis