Cancer rates

[fiveworlds]

A recent study here into cancer rates has shown steady increases in cancer. Projections indicate that the rate of cancer will double by 2040.

[swansont]

Citation?

 

And how much of the increase is because of progress in fighting other diseases, allowing people to live longer (and thus get cancer)? Death rates are a zero-sum game.

[fiveworlds]

http://www.ncri.ie/publications/cancer-trends-and-projections/cancer-projections-ireland-2015-%E2%80%93-2040

There has been a lot of talk about what is causing it. Some people think it's a lot to do with inherited forms of cancer.

[physica]

A prime example of what swansont is saying is heart attacks. Over the last 20 years the way we treat heart attacks has improved drastically with PCI meaning that most people survive their heart attacks. The link below is a study showing that after PCI there was a 33% decline in cardiac deaths and a 57% increase in non-cardiac deaths. They also show that:

 

"The increase in noncardiac mortality was primarily attributable to cancer and chronic diseases (P<0.001)."

 

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24515993

 

The one thing that I have to constantly remind my patients and students is that they will die of something. If the general life expectancy is increasing do not worry about how people are dying as this is most probably because another area of medicine has improved. As a member of the public you should worry if cancer rates soar and the general life expectancy is decreasing.

[swansont]

http://www.ncri.ie/publications/cancer-trends-and-projections/cancer-projections-ireland-2015-%E2%80%93-2040

There has been a lot of talk about what is causing it. Some people think it's a lot to do with inherited forms of cancer.

 

 

They say this:

demographic change will be the main factor driving an increase in cancer numbers

 

 

So the main factor is that the population will, on average, get older, which increases your likelihood of getting cancer. But that doesn't mean that the probability per year has changed. It's like playing the lottery. The more you play, the more likely you are to win, but the odds of a given game have not changed.

[fiveworlds]

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN

Over the past few year life expectancy rates have remained at 81 more or less. They are living to the same age

Edited August 12, 2014 by fiveworlds

[swansont]

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN

Over the past few year life expectancy rates have remained at 81 more or less. They are living to the same age

 

No, it went from 80 to 81 in that time. The numbers aren't specified any more precisely (nor probably should they be, owing to noise). That just tells you any increase is not bigger than a few months increase per year, which is not the same as no increase. You need to look at a longer data set to know more. When you do, you'll see a steady increase.

[fiveworlds]

The easiest way to get one would be to wait. See if anything changes over ten years or so.

[CharonY]

Or looking back at existing data which clearly show a shift in demographics as well as causes of death. Ten years in these kind of studies are insufficient to filter out noise.