Hold on to your hats:

[coquina]

Matt Drudge might not be the most likable person in the world, but he's usually accurate:

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash3rc.htm

 

REPORT: CHINA, RUSSIA TO 'REHEARSE INVASION OF TAIWAN'

Thu Mar 17 2005 11:02:09 ET

 

MOSCOW, March 17. (RIA Novosti)-Yesterday, Chief of the Russian General Staff Yury Baluyevsky left for China to settle a scandal over the first Russian-Chinese military exercise, Commonwealth-2005, which is due to be held this fall off the Yellow Sea coast, writes Kommersant.

 

The initial plans were to practice operational teamwork in combating terrorism during the exercise. However, Beijing, skillfully changing the format of the exercise, has tried to re-orient the two countries' armies to practicing an invasion of Taiwan.

 

The choice of where the exercise will take place became a stumbling block. The Russian military selected the Xinjiang-Uigur autonomous region, basing their choice on the area's problematic nature due to Uigur separatists and its proximity to Central Asia, which has become an arena in the fight against international terrorism. However, Beijing flatly rejected the proposal. Instead, it suggested the Zhejiang province near Taiwan.

 

A joint exercise in this area would look too provocative and trigger a strong reaction not only from Taiwan but also America and Japan, which recently included the island in the zone of their common strategic interests.

 

Beijing is trying to use Russia as an additional lever of pressure on the disobedient island to show it that its policy is also causing dissatisfaction in Russia, from which the Taiwanese are expecting assistance in their dialogue with Beijing and bid to join the WTO and the UN.

 

On the Russian military's insistence, the exercise was shifted north to the Shangdong peninsula. However, the Chinese are trying to change the format of the exercise with proposals to enlarge the contingents with Marines and Pacific Fleet warships. Marine landings to seize the area will be practiced during the "antiterrorist" exercise.

 

Russia's agreement to hold the exercise will inevitably cause a furor in America, Japan and Taiwan. But a refusal will spoil relations with China, which three months ago courteously agreed to Russia's proposal to hold an exercise.

 

Developing...

[Callipygous]

oh snap!

 

shotgun.

[Aardvark]

It seems to me that the only way to guarentee peace is to immediately supply Taiwan with a large number of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.

 

Only then will the Peoples Republic of China be deterred from this increasingly dangerous belligerence.

[Callipygous]

BRILLIANT. the only way to insure peace? arm another country with nukes!

 

didnt we already arm some other country a little further west?

[Aardvark]

BRILLIANT. the only way to insure peace? arm another country with nukes!

 

Nuclear deterrence works.

 

didnt we already arm some other country a little further west?

 

If you are referring to China the answer is no.

[Tetrahedrite]

Nuclear deterrence works.

The exact opposite would happen. Arming Taiwan with nukes would just cause an arms race in Asia.

 

 

If you are referring to China the answer is no.

I think you'll find he's refering to Iraq!!

[Aardvark]

The exact opposite would happen. Arming Taiwan with nukes would just cause an arms race in Asia.

 

There is already an arms race there. If Taiwan had a serious nuclear deterrent then the arms buid up would become redundant. What is the point in having large conventional forces when both yourself and your rivals have nuclear weapons?

 

I think you'll find he's refering to Iraq!!

 

In which case i don't see the relavance to this matter, esp as we are talking about nuclear weapons, which the West definetely didn't supply to Iraq.

[Pangloss]

It seems to me that the only way to guarentee peace is to immediately supply Taiwan with a large number of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.

 

That would cost $160 billion immediately, and that's just for starters. That's not the cost of the nukes, mind you -- that's our 2004 trade deficit with China. Actually it'd be more than that, since the figure grew more than 30% from the 2003 number.

 

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

 

Not to mention immediately alienating much of that hemisphere, since none of those nations have nukes except for China, and they're all involved in on-again-off-again trade wars with Taiwan.

 

Want to try Door #2?

[Aardvark]

That would cost $160 billion immediately, and that's just for starters. That's not the cost of the nukes, mind you -- that's our 2004 trade deficit with China. Actually it'd be more than that, since the figure grew more than 30% from the 2003 number.

 

In what way is running a huge trade deficit a good thing worth protecting? It is China which depends on access to Americas markets in order to modernise and industrialise. China is economically dependent on the USA, not the other way around.

 

Not to mention immediately alienating much of that hemisphere' date=' since none of those nations have nukes except for China, and they're all involved in on-again-off-again trade wars with Taiwan. [/quote']

 

Alienate who exactly? Japan and South Korea are both increasingly concerned about Chinas growing belligerence. So that leaves North Korea and Russia. Not wanting to be crude, but so what if they don't like it? They will just have to accept it.

 

Want to try Door #2?

 

No thank you. Preventing a bloody war by a clear show of determination and strength looks like a good door to me.

[Pangloss]

Wups, you're right in that I got the number backwards, so call it $40-50 billion instead.

 

But interesting enough, right after I wrote the above I dropped by the New York Times web site to read Thomas Friedman's weekly column, and it turned out to be about this same subject. He brought up a good point that I hadn't considered:

 

The excessive tax cuts for the rich, combined with a total lack of discipline on spending by the Bush team and its Republican-run Congress, have helped China become the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, with a little under $200 billion worth. No, I don't think China will start dumping its T-bills on a whim. But don't tell me that as China buys up more and more of our debt - and that is the only way we can finance the tax holiday the Bush team wants to make permanent - it won't limit our room to maneuver with Beijing, should it take aggressive steps toward Taiwan.

 

So that puts the number back up around $250 billion. Plus the secondary cost of what happens to the value of T-Bills if China dumps them. Plus the actual cost of weapons and delivery systems.

 

Alienate who exactly? Japan and South Korea are both increasingly concerned about Chinas growing belligerence. So that leaves North Korea and Russia. Not wanting to be crude, but so what if they don't like it? They will just have to accept it.

 

Sure they're concerned -- they're concerned about a lot of things. But they're going to look at your nuclear arming of Taiwan and call it an example of killing a fly with a tank instead of a flyswatter. For starters.

 

I'm afraid they're just not going to thank you for vastly re-organizing the balance of power for the entire hemisphere. Think the Bush-bashing is bad now, do you?

 

Anyway, these issues are just the tip of the iceberg. For starters, China has said quite clearly that giving Taiwan nuclear weapons will result in immediate attack. So you'd better keep that project secret, and good luck with that -- you're certainly risking a lot.

 

Your suggestion is simply beyond the pale.

[coquina]

MOSCOW, March 17. (RIA Novosti)-Yesterday, Chief of the Russian General Staff Yury Baluyevsky left for China to settle a scandal over the first Russian-Chinese military exercise, Commonwealth-2005, which is due to be held this fall off the Yellow Sea coast, writes Kommersant.

 

The idea that China and Russia are staging a joint military exercise, regardless of where they have it raises the hair on the back of my neck.

 

If they form a major alliance, they control almost all of Asia and part of Europe. They also control a huge number of container ports world wide, including the ones at either end of the Panama Canal.

 

IMHO, when the Bear allies itself with the Tiger, it is a major concern for the rest of the world.

 

Right after the Soviet Union fell - it was my concern that the Chinese would attempt to overpower them while they were in disarray. Now it would seem they are about to "kiss and make up". I do not think this bodes well for us in any way, shape or fashion.

[Aardvark]

So that puts the number back up around $250 billion. Plus the secondary cost of what happens to the value of T-Bills if China dumps them. Plus the actual cost of weapons and delivery systems.

 

$250 billion? Firstly' date=' A deficit with China is not an asset. Secondly China is economically dependent on the USA, not the other way around. If China wants to start an economic war against the USA then it is China which would lose.

 

Sure they're concerned -- they're concerned about a lot of things. But they're going to look at your nuclear arming of Taiwan and call it an example of killing a fly with a tank instead of a flyswatter. For starters.

 

Averting a full scale war is like killing a fly with a tank? Try and concieve what an invasion of Taiwan would mean. Then you will understand that it is more than just a minor concern amongst others.

 

I'm afraid they're just not going to thank you for vastly re-organizing the balance of power for the entire hemisphere.

 

And how do you think they will respond if full scale war breaks out in their backyard?

 

Think the Bush-bashing is bad now' date=' do you?

[/quote']

 

Oh no, lets run foreign policy to prevent offending knee jerk Anti Americans rather than actually defend a democracy and prevent a full scale war.

 

Anyway' date=' these issues are just the tip of the iceberg. For starters, China has said quite clearly that giving Taiwan nuclear weapons will result in immediate attack. So you'd better keep that project secret, and good luck with that -- you're certainly risking a lot. [/quote']

 

China can make whatever digusting threats it wants. The fact is that it would not dare attack a nuclear armed Taiwan. That would mean national suicide. So no, not secret, public and loudly trumpeted, thats how deterrence works.

 

Your suggestion is simply bond the pale.

 

For more than 50 years the Western powers stockpiled nuclear weapons to deter attack. Now you state that allowing Taiwan the same measure of defence is 'beyond the pale'. If that is not hyprocrisy then i've no idea what is.

[Pangloss]

In saying it's beyond the pale I don't mean to suggest that you're being moronic or anything like that. I just think it would be a really bad move, for the reasons I stated above. Doesn't mean I don't respect your ideas.

[Aardvark]

In saying it's beyond the pale I don't mean to suggest that you're being moronic or anything like that. I just think it would be a really bad move, for the reasons I stated above. Doesn't mean I don't respect your ideas.

 

Thanks for that, i respect your opinion even thorough i disagree with it.

 

Sometimes its too easy to get carried away and take these things personally