US relation with Cuba

[Endy0816]

It helps to remember that other countries did not/do not have an embargo on Cuba like the US (in fact, the UN has been urging the US to lift the Cuba embargo for years), ergo there already is and has been international investment in the country and often in substantial amounts.

 

The challenge primarily for Cuba is that significant portions of this investment came from Russia and Venezuela, both of whom are suffering great economic hardship right now given the rapidly dropping oil prices and their great reliance on high oil prices for both liquidity and power.

 

But neither contributes a great number of visitors(US actually outdoing Russia). We could reasonably expect upwards of 800,000 additional American arrivals. Honestly based on proximity and our population size I would expect that number to go well over a million.

[MigL]

Russia, and to some extent Venezuela, used Cuba as a pawn in their conflict with the US.

Cuban economy did not just "go south' recently along with the falling oil prices. It has been bad since the 70s, when Russia didn't need them anymore.

The fact remains, iNow, that the US should be Cuba's biggest trading partner, because of their proximity, just like Canada and Mexico are. And you're absolutely right, the situation during the last 50 yrs of embargo were no better, but that's not what I said. I stated that I hope the situation does improve, but I have some doubts. It cannot be just a political change, it needs to be economic as well.

[Ten oz]

No one is trying to deny Cuba the right to self governance.

 

No one is under any obligation to trade with another country if they feel that country has sufficient negative attributes. Nor should they be. Would you feel obligated to trade power tools with your wife-beating next door neighbor just because you trade power tools with everyone else in the neighborhood? Are we not justified in withholding 'fair global competition' to the likes of North Korea?

 

Withholding the benefits that come with good relations with your neighbors as a method to reign in poor behavior is a time-honored and effective course of action. It is certainly better than armed conflict. I would venture to say that there is not a country in the world who does not impede 'fair global competition' for at least one other country.

 

 

And we generally deny them to some extent the benefits of 'fair global competition' also.

 

 

It helps to remember that other countries did not/do not have an embargo on Cuba like the US (in fact, the UN has been urging the US to lift the Cuba embargo for years), ergo there already is and has been international investment in the country and often in substantial amounts.

 

The challenge primarily for Cuba is that significant portions of this investment came from Russia and Venezuela, both of whom are suffering great economic hardship right now given the rapidly dropping oil prices and their great reliance on high oil prices for both liquidity and power.

I think the impact of the embargo is not fully being addressed in these responses. Cuba can trade with countries other than the United States however there is pressure put on countries not to do so. The Helms - Burton Act for example:

"is a United States federal law which strengthens and continues the United States embargo against Cuba. The act extended the territorial application of the initial embargo to apply to foreign companies trading with Cuba, and penalized foreign companies allegedly "trafficking" in property formerly owned by U.S. citizens but confiscated by Cuba after the Cuban revolution. The act also covers property formerly owned by Cubans who have since become U.S. citizens.^"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helms%E2%80%93Burton_Act

.

"The EU challenged the embargo in 1996, launching a trade dispute at the World Trade Organization against the U.S. Helms-Burton law, which took aim at non-U.S. companies that did business with Cuba.

A panel of adjudicators was appointed but the EU suddenly backed down, a decision WTO experts say was prompted by fears that Washington would invoke the national security defense -- a legitimate WTO get-out clause that has never yet been used."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/18/us-cuba-usa-wto-idUSKBN0JW26G20141218

 

The United States is a global economic and military power. Our allies and trading partners don't just ignore our restrictions and openly trade with Cuba. We (USA) have outlined what is and is not acceptable in regards to Cuba and the world follows. Cuba is not a large enough place for anyone to risk damaging their relationship with the U.S. over it. So dispite objections from the WTO, U.N., and the E.U. most us our (USA) restrictions are respected. We (USA) play a major role in all trade in and out of Cuba. It is not simply a matter of the United States not trading with Cuba but outside of that the world community can do whatever they want.

 

As for the human rights side of things. The United States does business with countries like Saudi Arabia where children are executed, women do not share equal rights under law, guest workers are treated akin to slaves, and so on. http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2013/country-chapters/saudi-arabia?page=3

Meanwhile the the world community views our (USA) embargo against Cuba as a human rights issue in itself. The United Nations has voted numerous times that it violates international law and is a Human rights concern:

"The UN General Assembly has, since 1992, passed a resolution every year condemning the ongoing impact of the embargo and declaring it to be in violation of the Charter of the United Nations and international law.^[2] Human rights groups including Amnesty International,^[2]Human Rights Watch,^[14] and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights^[15] have also been critical of the embargo."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba

[MigL]

But the UN isn't standing on high moral ground either. Just look at the member nations appointed to Human Rights council.

And that would make another interesting topic.

[iNow]

I think the impact of the embargo is not fully being addressed in these responses. Cuba can trade with countries other than the United States however there is pressure put on countries not to do so.

In would seem that pressure is largely ineffectual given the commerce actually occurring between Cuba and its trade partners. I also suspect that Russia and Venezuela couldn't care less what the US does or does not want, for example but Canada does care and even they are the second largest trade partner to Cuba.

 

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Americas/Cuba-FOREIGN-TRADE.html

Almost half of Cuba's commodity export market (53%) is taken up by sugar and honey, representing 5.7% of the world's export sales in these commodities. Nickel is the second most lucrative exported commodity (23%), followed by fish (6.8%). Other exports include tobacco (5.6%) and medicinal and pharmaceutical products (2.8%). Primary imports include petroleum, food, machinery, and chemicals.

 

Russia buys 27% of Cuba's exports; Canada, 18%; and Spain, 8%. Imports come from Spain (17%), France (9%), and Canada (9%).

Exports: $2.458 billion f.o.b. (2009 est.)

 

Export goods: sugar, medical products, nickel, tobacco, shellfish, citrus, coffee

 

Main export partners:

Canada 17.3%

China 16.6%

Venezuela 12.7%

Netherlands 8.8%

Spain 5.8% (2012 est.)

 

Imports: $8.963 billion f.o.b. (2009 est.)

 

Import goods: petroleum, food, machinery and equipment, chemicals

 

Main import partners:

Venezuela 36.4%

China 10.5%

Spain 8.7%

Brazil 5.1%

United States 4.2% (2012 est.)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cuba#International_trade

The Netherlands receives the largest share of Cuban exports (24%), 70 to 80% of which go through Indiana Finance BV, a company owned by the Van 't Wout family, who have close personal ties with Fidel Castro. Currently, this trend can be seen in other colonial Caribbean communities who have direct political ties with the global economy. (for example, British West Indies, United States Virgin Islands, French outer-territories, and so on). Cuba's primary import partner is Venezuela. The second largest trade partner is Canada, with a 22% share of the Cuban export market.

[DimaMazin]

. It cannot be just a political change, it needs to be economic as well.

Just additional problems and no benefit for USA.

[overtone]

Castro shot himself in the foot. He nationalized US interests without compensation, but gained nothing. He should just have heavily taxed those ( and the Mob's ) interests, while still keeping his communism.

He had no way of taxing the organized criminals and US corporate interests - and he had the examples of Nicaragua and Honduras and so forth to warn him of what would happen to him if he tried.

 

 

Once he allied himself with Kruschev, and allowed Russian missiles off the coast of Florida, there was no turning back, and his people have suffered ever since.

The US already had him under embargo, and had already attempted to invade and start a civil war against him as it had in other places. The alliance with the USSR was pretty much forced on him - he needed protection from the US.

 

Did his failed baseball career really make him that mad at the US ?

Not as much as the support of Batista, the Mob exploitation of the Cuban economy, the embargo, the Bay of Pigs, and the several assassination attempts.

Cuba was one of the many countries around the world to ask the US for help in revolting against a horrible rightwing dictator, and get violence and threats instead.

 

Cuba should be the richest of the Caribbean islands, but is far from it.

According to the free market small government folks, Cuba should be the poorest nation in the entire Western hemisphere, by far, given its completely communist and centrally controlled government and the embargo against it by the world's richest and most powerful nation right on its border. But it isn't.

 

One area of competitive advantage for Cuba would be medical care - Cuba has very good doctors, they don't have the violence or corruption of Mexico, and they are only 90 miles from the US with its pent up demand and ridiculously overpriced delivery system.

 

We are seeing medical tourism from the US to Thailand, Mexico, illegally to Canada, etc - there's a huge demand available, and Cuba is ideally positioned to fill it.

Edited December 23, 2014 by overtone

[Ten oz]

But the UN isn't standing on high moral ground either. Just look at the member nations appointed to Human Rights council.

And that would make another interesting topic.

 

I never implied the U.N. had a moral high ground. My point is that our (USA) embargo of Cuba is not over Human Rights.

 

 

In would seem that pressure is largely ineffectual given the commerce actually occurring between Cuba and its trade partners. I also suspect that Russia and Venezuela couldn't care less what the US does or does not want, for example but Canada does care and even they are the second largest trade partner to Cuba.

 

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Americas/Cuba-FOREIGN-TRADE.html

 

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cuba#International_trade

I never said that trade was zero. I said that USA greatly influences what that trade looks like and it does. I already supported my position.

Canada and the EU would have even more trade if not for the Embargo and Helms-Burton which is why both countries bother to protest it. If it was/is as toothless as you suggest there would be no point on fighting over it.

 

I am not implying the United States is abusing Cuba. I am simply saying that the I believe the embargo has run its course. It was put in place in a different era based on Cuba's proximity to the U.S. at a time when the cold war was at its hieght. It no longer serves a useful purpose and is a thorn of disagreement between the U.S. and the U.N., E.U, and the WTO.

[iNow]

I never said that trade was zero. I said that USA greatly influences what that trade looks like and it does. I already supported my position. Canada and the EU would have even more trade if not for the Embargo...

I don't feel the information you shared above sufficiently supports or scales with your specific claim (that other nations would trade more with Cuba than they already do if only the US didn't influence them to do otherwise), but I won't belabor it. It's peripheral to the actual topic and not terribly important, IMO.

 

 

I am simply saying that the I believe the embargo has run its course. <...> It no longer serves a useful purpose and is a thorn of disagreement between the U.S. and the U.N., E.U, and the WTO.

Completely agree.

[Ten oz]

I don't feel the information you shared above sufficiently supports or scales with your specific claim (that other nations would trade more with Cuba than they already do if only the US didn't influence them to do otherwise), but I won't belabor it. It's peripheral to the actual topic and not terribly important, IMO.

 

It you follow the Stock Market you know that across the board nearly every stock that has anything to do with Cuba went soaring following Obama's announcement. That is a reflection of an anticipation of more business.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/12/17/stocks-with-cuban-exposure-jump-after-obama-moves-to-restore-relations-with/

 

an example of how it matters:

"Toronto-based Sherritt is the largest independent natural resources company in Cuba and operates the Moa nickel mine in the eastern part of the Caribbean island state.

Due to the Cuban origin of its nickel and cobalt, the company is currently unable export to the United States, even though the metals are refined in western Canada.

"If the embargo were to be lifted, we could export some of that nickel and cobalt into the U.S. market, which is obviously one of the biggest markets in the world," CEO Pathe said in an interview.

"It would also give us access to U.S. suppliers for mining equipment and supplies and services for our oil and gas industries."

The company derives nearly three-quarters of its revenue from operations in Cuba and about 95 percent of its revenue from its metals business.

"Opening banking and diplomatic relations between Cuba and the U.S. could lift a layer of uncertainty off Sherritt's operations in that country," TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes said in a note to clients."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/17/sherritt-intl-cuba-idUSL3N0U150120141217?type=companyNews

 

Being able to use U.S. investors and buy U.S. mining equipment with allow this Canadian company to produce more and at a cheaper price. This impacts there position globally.

[iNow]

It you follow the Stock Market you know that across the board nearly every stock that has anything to do with Cuba went soaring following Obama's announcement. That is a reflection of an anticipation of more business.

Yes, more business with US companies. It very well may be that other countries have been reluctant to engage in additional commerce with Cuba due to the US embargo. I stipulate that, but what you've thus far shared in support of that claim is circumstantial, at best.

 

Agree that economic activity with Cuba and the world will improve as a result of Obama's announcement. It would probably improve even more if congress actually lifted the embargo.

[DimaMazin]

 

 

We are seeing medical tourism from the US to Thailand, Mexico, illegally to Canada, etc - there's a huge demand available, and Cuba is ideally positioned to fill it.

USA medicine will lose money, Cuba's medicine will forget poor Cubans.

Yes, more business with US companies. It very well may be that other countries have been reluctant to engage in additional commerce with Cuba due to the US embargo. I stipulate that, but what you've thus far shared in support of that claim is circumstantial, at best.

 

Agree that economic activity with Cuba and the world will improve as a result of Obama's announcement. It would probably improve even more if congress actually lifted the embargo.

Divided people have potential energy. Kinetic energy of the connection can be useful or harmful. Cuban communists are catalyst of harmful energy. The same was with Russia. Now Russia is enemy of USA and Cuba will be more dangerous enemy than now is.

Edited December 24, 2014 by DimaMazin

[Ten oz]

Yes, more business with US companies. It very well may be that other countries have been reluctant to engage in additional commerce with Cuba due to the US embargo. I stipulate that, but what you've thus far shared in support of that claim is circumstantial, at best.Agree that economic activity with Cuba and the world will improve as a result of Obama's announcement. It would probably improve even more if congress actually lifted the embargo.

Lets just agree that we mostly agree?

[iNow]

Lets just agree that we mostly agree?

Sounds fair to me! In much the same way that we shouldn't sacrifice the good in pursuit of the perfect, pedantry shouldn't undo perceptual overlap and majority consensus. Cheers.

 

 

Now Russia is enemy of USA and Cuba will be more dangerous enemy than now is.

What specific facts are you able to share in support of this marginal claim? Any whatsoever would be welcomed here and would greatly assist in my desire to understand what you're on about. Edited December 24, 2014 by iNow

[overtone]

 

 

USA medicine will lose money,

Good. The current US medical care system is soaking up 20% of the productivity of the most productive country on earth - that's probably triple what it should cost.

 

 

Cuba's medicine will forget poor Cubans.

That may be - the turn to US-associated corporate capitalism has caused something like that in a lot of places. But one can hope that 50 years of defiance have taught better the Cuban intellectual elite, and that the liberals among them can keep hold on some political power.

[Endy0816]

US rejects Cuba demand to hand back Guantanamo Bay base

 

I was wondering how long this would take to come up.

[zapatos]

I'm afraid that is a non starter. The US giving back Guantanamo prior to the beginning of normalizing relations is as likely to happen as a demand by the US that Cuba implement Western style democracy prior to normalizing relations. I'm hoping Castro's statement was for internal consumption.

[DimaMazin]

I'm hoping Castro's statement was for internal consumption.

My opinion is unchanging independently of senseless hopes.