Iran's Nuclear Program

[iNow]

The core risk now with negotiations taking place with Iran is getting buy-in from other stakeholders like the US Congress and other neighbors in the Middle East region. This whole thing still might tank without them onboard.

[Ten oz]

@ iNow, I do not say Iran was uneducated. Nor did I say that they did not have a middleclass. Nuclear power would be a benifit. Energy is one of the most important factors for economic growth. Economic stability in turn is an important factor for education. Added to that would all the technology gained through research and development. Here in the United States pre Nuclear Power and Pre space race we had educated people and a middle class but the technology developed was still a huge benefit. Still changed our world.

[iNow]

My post was less intended to rebut anything you said than it was meant to clarify the situation for other readers who were potentially less aware of those details.

[pavelcherepan]

Nuclear power would be a benifit. Energy is one of the most important factors for economic growth.

 

I'm not exactly sure whether Iran does need nuclear power all that much having second-largest oil and gas reserves in the world, that's not to say that it will definitely be a very nice addition and will allow to develop science, education and production in new directions.

 

 

The core risk now with negotiations taking place with Iran is getting buy-in from other stakeholders like the US Congress and other neighbors in the Middle East region. This whole thing still might tank without them onboard.

 

And I wonder what will Israel's action be. So far what I've seen they are very unhappy about the results of negotiation:

 

 

This deal would legitimize Iran's nuclear program, bolster Iran's economy, and increase Iran's aggression and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond - Netanyahu.

 

<snip>

 

I don't want to talk about a military option, other than to say that it exists - Steinitz.

 

Yeah... not happy at all.

[Ten oz]

I'm not exactly sure whether Iran does need nuclear power all that much having second-largest oil and gas reserves in the world, that's not to say that it will definitely be a very nice addition and will allow to develop science, education and production in new directions.

 

 

Oil is generally used as engine fuel, mechanical lubricants, synthetic rubber, and etc. Electrical power generation is not the use that makes oil the valuable commodity it is. Not only that but no country ever has too much energy. Here in the United States we have healthy oil, natural gas, and coal reserves but that hasn't stopped us from developing nuclear, wind, and solar. Even with all that we import massive amounts of oil. Then consider global warming and the push around the planet to limit oil use. Fifty year from now all that oil in Iran might not serve their economic needs well if no one wants to buy/trade for it.

Other sources of power helps them both better exploit their oil reserves today and creates more stability through options for the future.

[iNow]

Since we're not discussing Irans ability to make nuclear power, but instead their ability to enrich uranium and stockpile it and weapons-grade plutonium or have infrastructure that would allow them to create a weapon in 9-12 months or less, I'm not sure I see the relevance of this most recent exchange.

[pavelcherepan]

Since we're not discussing Irans ability to make nuclear power, but instead their ability to enrich uranium and stockpile it and weapons-grade plutonium or have infrastructure that would allow them to create a weapon in 9-12 months or less, I'm not sure I see the relevance of this most recent exchange.

 

iNow,nuclear power generation was mentioned in the OP, so we're all good here

 

 

 

I think the argument is, correct me if i'm wrong, most world powers don't want Iran to have a nuclear bomb. Iran argues they don't want a bomb, they just want nuclear-electric power.

[overtone]

 

 

So you still need to build a plant, get enough material for a bomb and then design and build a bomb itself. Again, it's not a question of one year or two years.

The Hiroshima bomb, minus the fuel, was built in three separate places for security reasons, and under wartime conditions of inefficiency in manufacture. It took two and half months, from scratch, first time manufacture of a brand new device. The implosion bomb design took longer to build and had to be tested - another three months.

 

That was done without computer controlled machining or measurement, modern tooling, etc.

 

Either could be duplicated in three weeks by any manufacturing plant capable of making a large commercial air conditioner. Australia has manufacturing facilities capable of making small airplanes.

 

Obtaining the fuel would be the major task for Australia - that might take a year or more. Iran will not have that problem, probably, once their power industry is established.

 

The dangerous nuke power in the region is Pakistan, not Iran.

[pavelcherepan]

Ok, enrichment was done in multiple places, because different methods of enrichment were tested and not for security reasons.

 

Also, Dr.Richard Feynman who was on fact in charge of the group that was responsible for all calculations distinctly remembers computers.

 

"No modern tooling" - yes the a-bomb was done with hammers and bigger hammers

[MigL]

I could be wrong but I thought Feynman was just a junior member of the project.

 

You're probably right Overtone.

Pakistan needs a strong dictator for 20-30 yrs to implement the changes needed to their society and reduce the influence of tribal warlords.

[StringJunky]

I could be wrong but I thought Feynman was just a junior member of the project.

He wasn't a lead member but he verified the maths; he was a proofer, sort of.

[overtone]

Ok, enrichment was done in multiple places, because different methods of enrichment were tested and not for security reasons.

The bombs were built - the actual, physical structure with all its mechanisms and so forth constructed, nothing to do but load the fission material - in separate sections in widely separated factories. This was much slower and less efficient, but it prevented any one location from knowing the complete design. That was for security reasons.

 

As these designs are now basically common knowledge, there would be no reason to do things so inefficiently - my estimate of three weeks is probably double what it would take.

 

 

"No modern tooling" - yes the a-bomb was done with hammers and bigger hammers

In a sense, yes. It was done without a single digital computer, any of the modern high speed indexable inserts and tool coatings, and so forth. The bombs were built when tungsten carbide tooling was the latest thing, the awesome advance. The machinists were setting their angles and so forth by hand using things like sine blocks. Do you understand what a modern machining operation is capable of these days, compared with then? Check out how machinists were making propellers in 1945 - that's how they were shaping the charges in the Nagasaki bomb. That's a two hour job for one machinist with a suitable CNC setup now, and with better precision.

 

 

 

 

Also, Dr.Richard Feynman who was on fact in charge of the group that was responsible for all calculations distinctly remembers computers.

He doesn't. There were no digital programmable computers in 1944. The closest you had were one of a kind setups like Turing's codebreaker - you can see a pretty accurate depiction of how that worked in the movie "The Imitation Game". There were some mechanical adding machines, analog trig calculators, etc. Feynman's team of calculators (that was the job title) were doing their arithmetic by hand, with slide rules, using logarithm tables and trigonometric tables and tables of integrals and so forth printed on paper in big books.

 

The point being: the only barrier to Iran building a bomb is the fission fuel. And Iran's level of technical expertise is almost certainly capable of not only building a bomb in a couple of weeks, but fitting it into one of the missile cones in the missiles they have no trouble building. So as soon as they have the fission fuel, Israel can no longer bully its neighbors with its current impunity - Iran can no longer be threatened with one way annihilation.

 

Israel's expansion and seizure of water, etc, depends on being able to bully its neighbors with impunity.

Edited April 6, 2015 by overtone

[iNow]

We have no need to use what overtone thinks "sorta kinda maybe could possibly" be happening. There are experts involved in the negotiations who agree that This deal would take breakout duration from today's 2-3 months instead to longer than a year.

 

http://news.sciencemag.org/asiapacific/2015/04/technical-elements-iran-deal-put-brakes-nuclear-breakout

[pavelcherepan]

He doesn't. There were no digital programmable computers in 1944. The closest you had were one of a kind setups like Turing's codebreaker - you can see a pretty accurate depiction of how that worked in the movie "The Imitation Game". There were some mechanical adding machines, analog trig calculators, etc. Feynman's team of calculators (that was the job title) were doing their arithmetic by hand, with slide rules, using logarithm tables and trigonometric tables and tables of integrals and so forth printed on paper in big books.

"Later, with Nicholas Metropolis, he assisted in establishing the system for using IBM punched cards for computation." In my mind that is an automated and programmable computation method and no one said there were digital electronics, that's just another of your straw men.

Edited April 6, 2015 by pavelcherepan

[waitforufo]

We have no need to use what overtone thinks "sorta kinda maybe could possibly" be happening. There are experts involved in the negotiations who agree that This deal would take breakout duration from today's 2-3 months instead to longer than a year.

 

http://news.sciencemag.org/asiapacific/2015/04/technical-elements-iran-deal-put-brakes-nuclear-breakout

Hans Blix or equivalent to the rescue? I'm sure Iran trembles at the thought of getting a stern letter from the UN.

[MigL]

If I remeber correctly Feynman only finished his PhD in 1942 so he was definitely a junior member. He was well liked by H. Bothe however( who much later persuaded him to go to Caltech instead of Princeton ) and put in charge of the computational division which was as Overtone has suggested. The Hollerith punch cards were developed much later as an imput method for digital mainframe computers. They were still being used in the late 70s-early 80s; I know, I used them. Los Alamos had no digital or electronic computers, as Overtone said, they had slide rules and log tables ( I have also used those ).

 

However I can't agree with Overtone ( I knew I'd find something ) that Iran feels threatened by Israel. If anything, Iran is more threatened by her Arab neighbors, and just uses Israel to destabilize the neighboring states.

[waitforufo]

However I can't agree with Overtone ( I knew I'd find something ) that Iran feels threatened by Israel. If anything, Iran is more threatened by her Arab neighbors, and just uses Israel to destabilize the neighboring states.

Israel does threaten Iran's proxies Hamas and Hezbollah.

[MigL]

True, but Iran aids Hezbollah, who then attack Israel, who then retaliate.

And Lebanon gets attacked.

 

One could say Iran is the sh*t-disturber in the area.

[Robittybob1]

True, but Iran aids Hezbollah, who then attack Israel, who then retaliate.

And Lebanon gets attacked.

 

One could say Iran is the sh*t-disturber in the area.

Israel and Iran need to sit down and talk peace.

[MigL]

Its much easier to talk from a position of power.

Currently Israel has nukes, Iran doesn't.

Maybe once Iran has them too, talking as equals will be possible and easier.

 

Or I'm living in dreamland, and those crazy Ayatollahs will destroy the region in a nuclear holocaust.

[waitforufo]

Israel and Iran need to sit down and talk peace.

Maybe that sit down could be scheduled on Quds Day. An Iranian holiday where the government sponsors marches and rallies where the participants chant "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quds_Day

Its much easier to talk from a position of power.

Currently Israel has nukes, Iran doesn't.

Maybe once Iran has them too, talking as equals will be possible and easier.

 

Or I'm living in dreamland, and those crazy Ayatollahs will destroy the region in a nuclear holocaust.

I think you are in dreamland.

[imatfaal]

Maybe that sit down could be scheduled on Quds Day. An Iranian holiday where the government sponsors marches and rallies where the participants chant "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quds_Day

 

Yes the rhetoric is strong and faintly hilarious - and I have seen it first hand and after a few days it made me smirk. But whilst you are racking up points against Iran could you perhaps bear in mind that both Iraq and Iran have undergone regime change at the direct and indirect instigation (respectively) of the United States, that the US props up violently anti-Iranian states all around the region, and that the rhetoric from Washington and Tel Aviv - whilst less bombastic and overblown - was, in the very recent past, just as condemnatory about Iran. I am no Tehran apologist - I hate that theocracy with a passion but let's remember who derailed Iran's nascent democracy and that at present they are on a positive track.

[waitforufo]

 

Yes the rhetoric is strong and faintly hilarious - and I have seen it first hand and after a few days it made me smirk. But whilst you are racking up points against Iran could you perhaps bear in mind that both Iraq and Iran have undergone regime change at the direct and indirect instigation (respectively) of the United States, that the US props up violently anti-Iranian states all around the region, and that the rhetoric from Washington and Tel Aviv - whilst less bombastic and overblown - was, in the very recent past, just as condemnatory about Iran. I am no Tehran apologist - I hate that theocracy with a passion but let's remember who derailed Iran's nascent democracy and that at present they are on a positive track.

Yeah, there hilarious with all the hangings of gays and dissidents. Good thing Jimmy Carter decided to play comedian and make human rights the corner stone of his foreign policy. The theocracy is a punch line that never stops being funny.

 

Of course it's our fault that, as you clearly point out, that hate us for good reasons. So your right we, the kafir, should now trust them in keeping their promises and intentions. Oh wait, they promise kill us and our nation.

[imatfaal]

Yeah, there hilarious with all the hangings of gays and dissidents. Good thing Jimmy Carter decided to play comedian and make human rights the corner stone of his foreign policy. The theocracy is a punch line that never stops being funny.

 

Of course it's our fault that, as you clearly point out, that hate us for good reasons. So your right we, the kafir, should now trust them in keeping their promises and intentions. Oh wait, they promise kill us and our nation.

 

Everything must be so easy in your binary world of us v them. Try to be a little critical and think - we are not all good and they are not all bad; what's amazing is that this approach applies equally well to both sides!

[pavelcherepan]

Yeah, there hilarious with all the hangings of gays and dissidents. Good thing Jimmy Carter decided to play comedian and make human rights the corner stone of his foreign policy. The theocracy is a punch line that never stops being funny.

 

The logic is impressive. That, given that one of the major US allies in the region - Saudi Arabia has capital punishment for homosexuality and severely disadvantaged position for women. Can;t really compare but from where I'm sitting human rights situation is better in Iran.