Can Science do anything about known/expected Earth Quakes ?

[Acme]

Yep. It won't be of any use practically, assuming it's correct, until about 80 years after the next one but it does add to the body of knowledge. It just shows how much work one has to put in just to get that bit data. It's a slow old job.

Ahhh the warm fuzzy glow of us coming to yet another agreement.

 

Here's my go-to site for everything earthquaky. Articles, links, detailed quake data, a configurable real-time world-wide earthquake map, and more. Try the map to see how many aftershocks there have been from the big Nepal quake and how widespread they are. Duck & cover!

 

Earthquake Hazards Program @ USGS

[iNow]

How reliable is that information. Fracking depths would not be significant to the depths of earthquakes.

While (as Acme pointed out) it's probably more pedantically accurate to refer to waste-water injection instead of fracking, you're mistaken, this is the overwhelming consensus of experts, and the OK state government itself has also now accepted these findings as valid.

 

Supporting documentation of these points well summarized here: http://earthquakes.ok.gov/what-we-know/academic-research/

 

And more info here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/

[Robittybob1]

While (as Acme pointed out) it's probably more pedantically accurate to refer to waste-water injection instead of fracking, you're mistaken, this is the overwhelming consensus of experts, and the OK state government itself has also now accepted these findings as valid.

 

Supporting documentation of these points well summarized here: http://earthquakes.ok.gov/what-we-know/academic-research/

 

And more info here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/

OK has any large earthquake been induced by fracking? What you guys call an earthquake may be we would even worry about.

What is the largest one induced by fracking so far?

http://esd.lbl.gov/research/projects/induced_seismicity/primer.html

 

Most of the negative aspects associated with induced seismicity seem to be associated with the impact of seismicity on the surrounding community. Other effects, such as well failure due to subsidence well bore damage and damage of surface facilities, are minimal, or have not significantly impacted the cost-benefit ratio of industrial operations.

[Acme]

While (as Acme pointed out) it's probably more pedantically accurate to refer to waste-water injection instead of fracking, you're mistaken, this is the overwhelming consensus of experts, and the OK state government itself has also now accepted these findings as valid.

 

Supporting documentation of these points well summarized here: http://earthquakes.ok.gov/what-we-know/academic-research/

 

And more info here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/

More pedantically accurate? What does that mean exactly? Maybe, the facts? The wastewater injection -as I pointed out for John- is not a pressurized injection and the wastewater being injected comes up with conventional drill-and-pump wells. While there is wastewater associated with fracking, the pressurized fracturing of rock for oil & gas extraction is not what is causing the earthquakes in Oklahoma.

 

Have saved your links and will read after dinner. Danke.

... What you guys call an earthquake may be we would even worry about.

...

That is not even a proper sentence, let alone meaningful.

[Robittybob1]

More pedantically accurate? What does that mean exactly? Maybe, the facts? The wastewater injection -as I pointed out for John- is not a pressurized injection and the wastewater being injected comes up with conventional drill-and-pump wells. While there is wastewater associated with fracking, the pressurized fracturing of rock for oil & gas extraction is not what is causing the earthquakes in Oklahoma.

 

Have saved your links and will read after dinner. Danke.

That is not even a proper sentence, let alone meaningful.

Wouldn't worry about! "What you guys call an earthquake may be we wouldn't even worry about."

[iNow]

http://the-earth-story.com/post/85042553008/earthquake-advisory-issued-for-oklahoma-its-time

It’s time to pay attention to developments in Oklahoma. A few days ago, the US Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Geological Survey released a joint statement that was effectively a warning about earthquakes caused by fossil fuel production.

<snip>

When oil is pumped out of the ground, plenty of water comes with it; water occurs naturally in the same reservoirs that hold oil. That water is typically a very salty brine contaminated by contact with the oil. It can’t easily be cleaned and can’t be dumped into waterways, so the typical solution is to pump it into the ground.

<snip>

To be clear about a couple things…this is not hydraulic fracturing or fracking. Hydrofracking is done to deliberately break rocks apart and is a different matter; this process is waste water dumping.

Across the country and in Oklahoma, this process has been going on for decades, well before these quakes started. So what happened here? Well, the best interpretation is that the well is full.

 

When water is pumped into the ground at pressure it is going to flow away. That will keep happening as long as there is space for the water to go, but if too much water is pumped in, the rock formations could basically fill up, causing pressure to rise.

Water pressure makes it easier for faults to break. When water is squeezed, it pushes back because it’s incompressible. In the ground, the water can push against a fault plane, reducing the friction and making it easier for the fault to move.

 

In Oklahoma City, the pumping has gone on so long that finally the waste water disposal well has filled up, putting pressure in the ground and leading to these earthquakes.

 

As a consequence of decades of pumping water into the ground, Oklahoma City is now under an increased earthquake threat and people building homes, businesses, and schools need to take it into account. The 2011 quake already cost tens of millions of dollars, millions more will now need to be spent on better quake prep, and future quakes are still possible. To be frank; this was probably not part of the deal when the waste disposal wells were permitted.

[Acme]

Wouldn't worry about! "What you guys call an earthquake may be we wouldn't even worry about."

Nonsense. For one, 'earthquake' is well defined and it has nothing to do with what we guys call it.

earthquake

n.

A sudden movement of the earth's crust caused by the release of stress accumulated along geologic faults or by volcanic activity. Also called seism, temblor.

An earthquake is not defined by magnitude, rather an earthquake has a measure denominated 'magnitude' and magnitude is just one measure of a quake. Even ground shaking caused by fault fracturing or volcanic eruption that is too faint to feel, is by definition an earthquake.

 

I'll quote liberally from this link as it's public information and it seems few are bothering to read the material at the links I have given. Perhaps it will be read here in the post. Even so, there is more material than I am quoting on this single quake at the link.

Largest recent Oklahoma Earthquake

2011 November 06 03:53:10 UTC Magnitude 5.6 - OKLAHOMA

Felt Reports

 

At least 2 people injured, 14 homes destroyed and many damaged in the Shawnee-Sparks area. Parts of US Highway 62 between Meeker and Prague buckled by shaking along pre-existing cracks. An area of approximately 65 sq km in the immediate vicinity of the instrumental epicenter experienced shaking of intensity VIII. Felt (VII) at Meeker and Prague; (VI) at Castle, Indianola, McLoud, Sentinel, Shawnee, Sparks and Tupelo. Felt strongly in much of Oklahoma, southern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and northern Texas. Felt in at least 17 states of the central US from southern Wisconsin to southern Texas and from eastern Colorado to the Memphis, Tennessee area.

 

Tectonic Summary

 

The magnitude 4.7 and 5.6 earthquakes that occurred on November 5, 2011, were situated in a region located about 50 km east of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Earthquakes are not unusual in Oklahoma, but they often are too small to be felt. From 1972-2008 about 2-6 earthquakes a year were recorded by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center; these earthquakes were scattered broadly across the east-central part of the state. In 2008 the rate of earthquakes began to rise, with over a dozen earthquakes occurring in the region east- northeast of Oklahoma City and southwest of Tulsa, Oklahoma. In 2009 the rate of seismicity continued to climb, with nearly 50 earthquakes recorded--many big enough to be felt. In 2010 this activity continued. The magnitude 4.7 and 5.6 earthquakes of November 5, 2011, are the largest events recorded during this period of increased seismicity. Additionally, the M5.6 quake is the largest quake to hit Oklahoma in modern times.

 

There have been dozens of aftershocks recorded following the shallow November 5, 2011 magnitude 5.6 earthquake and its magnitude 4.7 foreshock that occurred on the same day. These aftershocks will continue for weeks and potentially months but will likely decrease in frequency. This is not an unusual amount of aftershock activity for a magnitude 4.7 to 5.6 earthquake sequence. There is always a small possibility of an earthquake of larger magnitude following any earthquake, but the occurrence of the magnitude 5.6 earthquake, and the increase in activity in recent years does not necessarily indicate that a larger more damaging earthquake will occur.

 

In general, it is very difficult to correlate earthquakes to specific faults in the region and in eastern North America. The earthquake sequence that started yesterday occurred close to where a magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred on February 27, 2010. From the location of the earthquake and the focal mechanism it is possible that this earthquake occurred on the Wilzetta fault. The Wilzetta fault is one of a series of small faults formed in the Pennsylvanian Epoch (approx. 300 million year ago) during the intraplate deformation known as the Ancestral Rocky Mountains mountain-building episode (orogeny). The relationship between the recent earthquakes and this older structure is still unknown and requires further investigation.

 

The Meers fault located in south-central Oklahoma, about 100 km southwest of Oklahoma City, is the only fault identified in the state with evidence of surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last 3000 years (prior to historical settlement of the region). Paleoseismology studies have identified a temporal clustering of a least three earthquakes on this fault, two of which are dated (1200-2900 years before present) and the third is believed to be older in age. An earthquake of magnitude 5.6 like the one that occurred yesterday east of Oklahoma City, are believed to be capable of striking anywhere in eastern North America at irregular intervals. Earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains, although less frequent than in the West, are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi). According to felt reports submitted to the USGS' Did You Feel It? Website, yesterday's magnitude 5.6 was clearly felt from St. Louis, Missouri, to southwest of Dallas, Texas, an epicentral distance of about 500 km. More than 60,000 individuals from 14 states have reported their observations on this website.

 

Working together the USGS, Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) and the University of Oklahoma School of Geology and Geophysics have deployed about 35 portable seismograph stations after the M4.7 foreshock and the M5.6 mainshock to facilitate improved detection and location of earthquakes. These portable stations will remain deployed in their current configuration for several weeks to a few months. This work is being done in partnership with the USGS, and builds on earlier cooperative efforts with OGS in the past two years to expand seismic monitoring in the region.

...

[Robittybob1]

Nonsense. For one, 'earthquake' is well defined and it has nothing to do with what we guys call it.

earthquake

 

An earthquake is not defined by magnitude, rather an earthquake has a measure denominated 'magnitude' and magnitude is just one measure of a quake. Even ground shaking caused by fault fracturing or volcanic eruption that is too faint to feel, is by definition an earthquake.

 

I'll quote liberally from this link as it's public information and it seems few are bothering to read the material at the links I have given. Perhaps it will be read here in the post. Even so, there is more material than I am quoting on this single quake at the link.

Largest recent Oklahoma Earthquake

OK that 5.6 scale earthquake was it or wasn't it associated with fracking? A shallow 5.6 near buildings can do real damage.

By your own definition some earthquakes are "too faint to feel", so you are not going to worry about them are you.

[Acme]

OK that 5.6 scale earthquake was it or wasn't it associated with fracking?

For the umpteenth time, NO. It was associated with oil & gas recovery wastewater injections.

 

A shallow 5.6 near buildings can do real damage.

No kidding.

 

By your own definition some earthquakes are "too faint to feel", so you are not going to worry about them are you.

Again, it's not my definition, it is THE definition. And again, since earthquakes can't be predicted you can't draw the conclusion that small quakes are nothing to worry about. What is particularly worrisome about the Oklahoma quakes is the increase in number over a relatively short time and the fact that they have been induced by human activity.

Earthquake Advisory issued for Oklahoma

Thanks. At the bottom of that short report is a link to a 262 page study covering not just seismic events in Oklahoma related to oil production, but [human] induced quakes throughout the US related to oil & gas production, dams & their reservoirs, geothermal energy, and the potential for inducing quakes with carbon dioxide sequestration by deep injection. It will take me a few days to read it in its entirety, but I will post anything I run across that I find germane to the thread.

 

Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies ( 2013 )

 

pg. R8 This report describes what we know about the potential for induced seismicity related to energy development. It highlights areas where our knowledge is weak and discusses inherent difficulties in dealing with an issue that does not have a well-defined regulatory home. The committee hopes this report will inform both the public and the decision-making process with respect to an important issue that will undoubtedly become more widely recognized as additional induced seismic events occur. ...

On page 6, this map appears:

FIGURE S.1 Sites in the United States and Canada with documented reports of seismicity caused by or likely related to energy development from various energy technologies. The reporting of the occurrence of small induced seismic events is limited by the detection and location thresholds of local surface-based seismic monitoring networks.

[Robittybob1]

I haven't seen how you link that earthquake with the waste-water injection method.

[Acme]

I haven't seen how you link that earthquake with the waste-water injection method.

That's because you have failed to read the reports and/or failed to understand them.

[Robittybob1]

That's because you have failed to read the reports and/or failed to understand them.

So where in the report does it say waste water? Maybe the links aren't working properly. I haven't got all day to find the connection but I searched the report for the word "waste" and wastewater and got nothing.

[pavelcherepan]

Lazy-lazy-lazy. The first link that iNow had provided (http://the-earth-story.com/post/85042553008/earthquake-advisory-issued-for-oklahoma-its-time). Just 4 paragraphs down the page it says:

 

 

 

To be clear about a couple things…this is not hydraulic fracturing or fracking. Hydrofracking is done to deliberately break rocks apart and is a different matter; this process is waste water dumping.

 

The report that Acme linked says at the very start (page 7):

 

 

 

Strings of small seismic events in Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas in the past several years have been related to wastewater disposal associated with oil and gas production. These seismic events have brought the issue of induced (human-caused) seismicity firmly into public view.

[Robittybob1]

Lazy-lazy-lazy. The first link that iNow had provided (http://the-earth-story.com/post/85042553008/earthquake-advisory-issued-for-oklahoma-its-time). Just 4 paragraphs down the page it says:

 

 

The report that Acme linked says at the very start (page 7):

 

Yes I had read all that before but there was nothing linking that particular earthquake to wastewater injection is there?

[pavelcherepan]

Yes I had read all that before but there was nothing linking that particular earthquake to wastewater injection is there?

 

Read Appendix C of the report. There's like 8 pages of reports of induced seismicity with references to papers with a more detailed descriptions. Feel free to browse through those.

[Robittybob1]

 

Read Appendix C of the report. There's like 8 pages of reports of induced seismicity with references to papers with a more detailed descriptions. Feel free to browse through those.

Acme should have done that since he made the claim.

[pavelcherepan]

He's made a claim and provided a link. Do you really need to be spoon fed? It took me two minutes to find the information, it's not so hard if you try.

[Acme]

He's made a claim and provided a link. Do you really need to be spoon fed? It took me two minutes to find the information, it's not so hard if you try.

I...erhm...well....

 

Anyway, the entire series of increased seismicity over the recent past in Oklahoma has been shown by a preponderance of evidence to be a result of the oil & gas industry's practices. It is a cumulative effect for one thing, and for another as noted below in bold, the industry does not provide specifics on the location, quantity, duration, makeup, and dates of all well injections. Not only would it be hard to tie a specific quake to an injection event you have no knowledge of, it is impossible.

 

Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard ModelResults of 2014 Workshop and Sensitivity Studies

...Nontectonic earthquakes were deleted in earlier National Seismic Hazard Model versions, either because the causative industrial process had been suspended or because the earthquakes did not appear to pose a significant hazard. However, dramatic increases in seismicity rates have been observed in the Central United States in the past 5 to 7 years. This increase is reported to be stimulated by injection of wastewater or other fluids in deep disposal wells (Healy and others, 1968; Raleigh and others, 1976;Seeber and others, 2004; Frohlich and others, 2011; Horton, 2012; Ellsworth, 2013; Keranen and others, 2013; Llenos and Michael, 2013; Block and others, 2014; Rubinstein and others, 2014a, b; Sumy and others, 2014). In addition, scientists studying the 2011 MW (moment magnitude) 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake suggested that deep injection of wastewater could trigger earthquakes with enough strength to damage nearby structures (Keranen and others, 2013). The increased rate of earthquakes (including potentially induced earthquakes) translates into an increased earthquake hazard. The phrases potentially induced seismicity, induced seismicity, potentially induced earthquakes or induced earthquakes are used interchangeably in this report, and indicate that the seismicity in a given region has shown an increased earthquake rate that can be attributed to human activities, such as fluid injection or extraction. We acknowledge that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. Difficulties in assessing seismic hazard arise from a lack of relevant technical information on human industrial activity (that is, pumping data for injection wells). ...

 

I found that report referenced by USGS in a news release from 5 days ago. Here's that:New Insight on Ground Shaking from Man-Made Earthquakes

[Robittybob1]

I...erhm...well....

 

Anyway, the entire series of increased seismicity over the recent past in Oklahoma has been shown by a preponderance of evidence to be a result of the oil & gas industry's practices. It is a cumulative effect for one thing, and for another as noted below in bold, the industry does not provide specifics on the location, quantity, duration, makeup, and dates of all well injections. Not only would it be hard to tie a specific quake to an injection event you have no knowledge of, it is impossible.

 

Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard ModelResults of 2014 Workshop and Sensitivity Studies

 

 

I found that report referenced by USGS in a news release from 5 days ago. Here's that:New Insight on Ground Shaking from Man-Made Earthquakes

Thanks for that.

[Acme]

Read Appendix C of the report. There's like 8 pages of reports of induced seismicity with references to papers with a more detailed descriptions. Feel free to browse through those.

It will take me a while to read the entire report, but I was reviewing that appendix you linked and thought I should mention that a few individual quakes listed have indeed been tied to fracking. Note that the dates appear to be the dates of the reports and not the quakes. I sorted them out and included one quake of unspecified cause & its footnote that refers to a quake at the turn of the century.

Site/City/State Country Max Magnitude Technology Type (causing induced seismicity) Reference

UK 2.3 Hydraulic fracturing de Pater and Baisch (2011)

Eola field, Oklahoma USA 2.8 Hydraulic fracturing Holland (2011)

Love County, Oklahoma USA 1.9 Oil and gas extraction (hydraulic fracturing for conventional oil and gas development) Nicholson and Wesson (1990)

--------------------

Cleveland, Ohio² USA 3 Other Nicholson and Wesson (1992)

² Nicholson and Wesson (1990, 1992) were not able to confirm the accuracy of the maximum magnitude of this event, which occurred at the turn of the 20th century (1898-1907).

Edit:

pgs.9-10: About 35,000 hydraulically fractured shale gas wells exist in the United States (Table S.1); only one case of felt seismicity (M ~ 2.8) in the United States has been described in which hydraulic fracturing for shale gas development is suspected, but not confirmed, as the cause (Table S.1). Globally only one case of felt induced seismicity in England (M 2.3) has been confirmed to have been caused by hydraulic fracturing for shale gas development. The very low number of felt events relative to the large number of hydraulically fractured wells for shale gas is likely due to the short duration of injection of fluids and the limited fluid volumes used in a small spatial area. ...

 

The upshot in regards to the OP is that scientists can advise governments and industries on what kinds of human activities can exacerbate seismic hazards so that steps can be taken to reduce the risks.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Acme

[Robittybob1]

It will take me a while to read the entire report, but I was reviewing that appendix you linked and thought I should mention that a few individual quakes listed have indeed been tied to fracking. Note that the dates appear to be the dates of the reports and not the quakes. I sorted them out and included one quake of unspecified cause & its footnote that refers to a quake at the turn of the century.

 

Edit:

 

The upshot in regards to the OP is that scientists can advise governments and industries on what kinds of human activities can exacerbate seismic hazards so that steps can be taken to reduce the risks.

I tend to the view the more stress you take out of the ground the better. In NZ i just love small harmless earthquakes for I think of it as releasing tension, rather than all that pressure being released in a "big one".

[pavelcherepan]

 

 

It will take me a while to read the entire report, but I was reviewing that appendix you linked and thought I should mention that a few individual quakes listed have indeed been tied to fracking. Note that the dates appear to be the dates of the reports and not the quakes. I sorted them out and included one quake of unspecified cause & its footnote that refers to a quake at the turn of the century.

 

Acme, I smell some misunderstanding here. I wasn't trying to argue against your point that most of human-induced earthquakes are caused by waste water injection rather than fracking. I only linked that Appendix to show Robittybob1 that there are plenty of studies linking waste water injections with quakes.

 

I tend to the view the more stress you take out of the ground the better. In NZ i just love small harmless earthquakes for I think of it as releasing tension, rather than all that pressure being released in a "big one".

 

Obviously, you're forgetting about the 2011 Christchurch quake.

[Robittybob1]

Obviously, you're forgetting about the 2011 Christchurch quake.

 

My friend was down in Christchurch the morning of the first big one.

 

The 2010 Canterbury earthquake (also known as the Christchurch earthquake or Darfield earthquake) struck the South Island of New Zealand with a moment magnitude of 7.1 [1][2] at 4:35 a.m. local time on 4 September, and had a maximum perceived intensity of X (Extreme) on the Mercalli Intensity Scale.[1] Some damaging aftershocks followed the main event, the strongest of which was a magnitude 6.3 shock that occurred on 22 February 2011.[7] Because this aftershock was centred very close to Christchurch, it was much more destructive and resulted in the deaths of 185 people,[8] and was felt from Invercargill to Wellington.[9]

She won't forget. The power went off (pitch black) and everything is being thrown around in the room.

[Acme]

Acme, I smell some misunderstanding here. I wasn't trying to argue against your point that most of human-induced earthquakes are caused by waste water injection rather than fracking. I only linked that Appendix to show Robittybob1 that there are plenty of studies linking waste water injections with quakes.

No worries; I understood your post as you intended it. I just quoted you as you had the link handy and I thought the few fracking induced quakes deserved mention. I also edited material into my post #45 when I ran across more mention of fracking induced quakes in the body of the report. All-in-all they are extremely rare.

 

As long as I am here I will add some notes germane to the thread's question on what science can do.

Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model Results of 2014 Workshop and Sensitivity Studies

BOX S.1

Research Recommendations

Data CollectionField and Laboratory

1. Collect, categorize, and evaluate data on potential induced seismic events in the field. High-quality seismic data are central to this effort. Research should identify the key types of data to be collected and the data collection protocol.

2. Conduct research to establish the means of making in situ stress measurements nondestructively.

3. Conduct additional field research on microseismsa in natural fracture systems including field-scale observations of the very small events and their native fractures.

4. Conduct focused research on the effect of temperature variations on stressed jointed rock systems. Although of immediate relevance to geothermal energy projects, the results would benefit understanding of induced seismicity in other energy technologies.

5. Conduct research that might clarify the in situ links among injection rate, pressure, and event size.

Instrumentation

1. Conduct research to address the gaps in current knowledge and availability of instrumentation: Such research would allow the geothermal industry, for example, to develop this domestic renewable source more effectively for electricity generation.

Hazard and Risk Assessment

1. Direct research to develop steps for hazard and risk assessment for single energy development projects (as described in Chapter 5, Table 5.2).

GAPS

1. The basic data on fault locations and properties, in situ stresses, fluid pressures, and rock properties are insufficient to implement existing models with accuracy on a site-specific basis.

2. Current predictive models cannot properly quantify or estimate the seismic efficiency and mode of failure; geomechanical deformation can be modeled, but a challenge exists to relate this to number and size of seismic events.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Acme

[Mordred]

Should be noted not all all oil and gas processes, including fracking dump waste into the ground. Some actually treat the water. I've worked on a few oil field water treatment systems, the companies that have them take water treatment extremely serious.

 

Not stating it does or doesn't happen. However it should be noted not all companies follow the best practices.

(For that matter, I've seen people fired for not reporting and cleaning up a spill, while filling their engine oil on their work vehicle)