Need help from a math wizard in here

[grim-thesoloist]

Hello, my name is Fred

 

I am trying to predict the outcome of competitive counter-strike global offensive matches by using data that I stored.

 

Matches are 5v5 and there are 30 rounds per match

Entry kill ratio: the ratio at which the players manage to make the entry kill (kill the first enemy without dying)

 

The data that I have:

 

TEAM 1 :

 

allu 1.81, get_right 1.18, forest 1.17, friberg 0.8, xizt 1.27, AVERAGE 1.246

This is the entry kill ratio for each player for this team on this particular map.

Round win % after getting first (entry) kill: 77.22%

 

TEAM 2:

 

maniac 0.95, x6 1.01, kennys 1.48, rpk 0.97, apex 0.91, AVERAGE 1.064

This is the entry kill ratio for each player for this team on this particular map.

Round win % after getting first (entry) kill: 72.78%

 

I know this is not an easy task, I'm usually pretty good with numbers but I've been bashing my head around this for over an hour and I cannot seem to figure it out.

 

Trying to "predict" the outcome of a 30 round game, considering that as soon as a team reaches 16 rounds won, the game is over.

 

If anyone has any idea how to do this, please let me know!! thanks

Edited June 22, 2015 by grim-thesoloist

[Unity+]

Hello, my name is Fred

 

I am trying to predict the outcome of competitive counter-strike global offensive matches by using data that I stored.

 

Matches are 5v5 and there are 30 rounds per match

Entry kill ratio: the ratio at which the players manage to make the entry kill (kill the first enemy without dying)

 

The data that I have:

 

TEAM 1 :

 

allu 1.81, get_right 1.18, forest 1.17, friberg 0.8, xizt 1.27, AVERAGE 1.246

This is the entry kill ratio for each player for this team on this particular map.

Round win % after getting first (entry) kill: 77.22%

 

TEAM 2:

 

maniac 0.95, x6 1.01, kennys 1.48, rpk 0.97, apex 0.91, AVERAGE 1.064

This is the entry kill ratio for each player for this team on this particular map.

Round win % after getting first (entry) kill: 72.78%

 

I know this is not an easy task, I'm usually pretty good with numbers but I've been bashing my head around this for over an hour and I cannot seem to figure it out.

 

Trying to "predict" the outcome of a 30 round game, considering that as soon as a team reaches 16 rounds won, the game is over.

 

If anyone has any idea how to do this, please let me know!! thanks

 

 

the ratio at which the players manage to make the entry kill (kill the first enemy without dying)

What do you mean by ratio? Is it the amount of kills per seconds till the first death?

 

Also, there are many factors that influence the outcome of the game. Kill ratio in terms of first death has no affect, really. It can give a better idea, but not a good idea.

[grim-thesoloist]

Oh I know, this is not going to be the determining factor but one of the factors that will be used in trying to predict the outcome.

 

those ratios mean:

 

ie. allu 1.81

 

from all the times where he tried to do the entry kill, he succeeded 154 times, and failed 85 times. so 154 successfull over 239.

 

in other words, 154 entry kills, and 85 entry deaths

Edited June 22, 2015 by grim-thesoloist

[Keen]

I thought about your question and here is the answer I came up with:

 

With the data available, I do not think anyone can reliably predict anything, here is why:

 

There is absolutely no guarantee, that those people will have even closely the same ratio as you listed. K/D ratio depends on a lots and lots of factors and even if it were simpler, a mean value alone is next to useless when you try to make any meaningful predictions in statistics.

 

It is however even worse, because even if we assume, that those players will have the same ratio as listed, we still can't decide who will win, simply because it depends on how many frags players have. If the guy with the worst ratio has the most frags, your team is pretty much screwed.

 

To see what I mean, let's take a look at this very simple example:

 

Imagine a game where a team need 34 kills to win. There are two teams:

Team 1: Tom , Jerry , Spike

Team 2: Garfield , Odie . Jon

 

Here is what happens in the first match:

Tom kills Garfield 8 times , Jerry kills Odie 8 times , Spike kills Jon 4 times

Garfield kills Tom 16 times , Odie kills Jerry 16 times , Jon kills Spike 2 times

In this example the team 2 wins.

 

Now let's take a look at a second match:

Tom kills Garfield 2 times , Jerry kills Odie 2 times , Spike kills Jon 30 times

Garfield kills Tom 4 times , Odie kills Jerry 4 times , Jon kills Spike 15 times.

In this second match, it's the team 1, that wins.

 

In both cases the ratios are:

Tom 0.5 Jerry 0.5 Spike 2

Garfield 2 Odie 2 Jon 0.5

 

You have the same ratios and yet the outcome is different.

 

Of course that kind of hypothetical match most likely never happened: I just made it up to show how complicated things can get and why the ratio is clearly not enough to predict the outcome of a match.

[imatfaal]

Set up game 5 v 5 a,b,c,d,e - versus - V,W,X,Y,X

Order of fire is generated randomly

Each round each member of team still alive fires at a random member of opposite team

Each shot is judged as hit or miss based on kill ratio - dunno what sort of game so don't know what multiplier you would want in here

Remove any player who is shot (how many times)

Repeat till only players of one team remains.

 

Repeat whole process many many times. Count wins of abcde againt wins of vwxyz