Found It! Countdown From August 2008, "100 Months"

[Essay]

The scales have fallen from my eyes, brother!

 

I believe, I believe!

 

But the question remains when IS DOOMSDAY to arrive?

 

Say, do you guys have a secret handshake or something?

Unless they support the One True Faith, right? Hockey stick, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, know what I mean, say no more...

 

And what date did you say?

 

Or I am aware of evidence which has escaped your notice. Perhaps it is 18 plus years of satellite temperature measurements. Funny thing to have overlooked but I have no idea what else you have going on. Anyway, I have converted now so you can stop treating me like the enemy and tell me when the Tipping Point is supposed to come along. It is part of our doctrine, after all.

 

You may have completely "changed" your beliefs, but your profound lack of knowledge and display of ignorance regarding actual climate science seems to be about the same.

~

[Strange]

The scales have fallen from my eyes, brother!

 

I believe, I believe!

 

But the question remains when IS DOOMSDAY to arrive?

 

Say, do you guys have a secret handshake or something?

Unless they support the One True Faith, right? Hockey stick, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, know what I mean, say no more...

 

And what date did you say?

 

Or I am aware of evidence which has escaped your notice. Perhaps it is 18 plus years of satellite temperature measurements. Funny thing to have overlooked but I have no idea what else you have going on. Anyway, I have converted now so you can stop treating me like the enemy and tell me when the Tipping Point is supposed to come along. It is part of our doctrine, after all.

 

Grow up and stop trolling.

[overtone]

Or I am aware of evidence which has escaped your notice.

Which you are withholding from the undeserving gallery, pending what, exactly? Applause?

 

The latest analysis, by the guys who know what they are doing, brings us disturbing support for what many of us in the peanut gallery have suspected for years: the IPCC estimates of the warming have been lowball, "conservative", falsely reassuring. http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-hiatus-disappears-with-new-data-1.17700

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/recent-global-surface-warming-hiatus

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/no-slow-down-global-warming-webjpg

Edited July 10, 2015 by overtone

[Harold Squared]

Your act is not amusing.

Ooo, tough crowd.

 

Grow up and stop trolling.

Gladly, if you will furnish the date and explain how posing a simple question qualifies as "trolling".

Please.

Which you are withholding from the undeserving gallery, pending what, exactly? Applause?

 

The latest analysis, by the guys who know what they are doing, brings us disturbing support for what many of us in the peanut gallery have suspected for years: the IPCC estimates of the warming have been lowball, "conservative", falsely reassuring. http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-hiatus-disappears-with-new-data-1.17700

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/recent-global-surface-warming-hiatus

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/no-slow-down-global-warming-webjpg

Soooo... the Tipping Point is in, what, October or something? I wouldn't want to miss it. Will your millions of Chinese internal refugees be there at the party? Edited July 23, 2015 by Harold Squared

[overtone]

Soooo... the Tipping Point is in, what, October or something? I wouldn't want to miss it.

Let's hope it wasn't last October, as is possible according to some calculations.

 

We will find out what the tipping point was a few years after passing it.

 

It would be better to never know what it was. You do want to miss it.

Edited July 25, 2015 by overtone

[Harold Squared]

Nope, not me. I have lived through 2012, Y2K, and 1984, so fake apocalypses are nothing new to me.

 

If the science is so definite why is there so much uncertainty about the date, anyway?

[iNow]

If the science is so definite why is there so much uncertainty about the date, anyway?

For much the same reason that it's difficult to tell a patient diagnosed with cancer the exact date they will die or to pinpoint the exact date a planted seed will result in the first fruit on a tree. Also, because it's not like we'll go to bed with things fine on a Tuesday and wake up Wednesday unable to find water, food, or breathable air. The process is both additive and complex and the level of willful ignorance inherent in your question inspires both awe and pity.

 

On another note, it appears the forecasts were too conservative and things are getting worse faster than previously anticipated, but hey... You're old and selfish and don't give a snip about anybody else but yourself anyway, right?

 

http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n5/full/scientificamerican1112-50.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/30/climate-scientists-arent-too-alarmist-theyre-too-conservative/

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/30/overlooked-evidence-global-warming-may-proceed-faster-than-expected

[John Cuthber]

Gladly, if you will furnish the date and explain how posing a simple question qualifies as "trolling".

Please.

The comment about trolling wasn't in response to a "simple question", was it?

It was in response to this

 

 

The scales have fallen from my eyes, brother!

 

I believe, I believe!

 

But the question remains when IS DOOMSDAY to arrive?

 

Say, do you guys have a secret handshake or something?

Unless they support the One True Faith, right? Hockey stick, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, know what I mean, say no more...

 

And what date did you say?

 

Or I am aware of evidence which has escaped your notice. Perhaps it is 18 plus years of satellite temperature measurements. Funny thing to have overlooked but I have no idea what else you have going on. Anyway, I have converted now so you can stop treating me like the enemy and tell me when the Tipping Point is supposed to come along. It is part of our doctrine, after all.

So the issue now is were you deluded or dishonest when you asked?

Edited July 27, 2015 by John Cuthber

[overtone]

 

 

Nope, not me. I have lived through 2012, Y2K, and 1984, so fake apocalypses are nothing new to me.

Lessee: 2012 was a misread of a calendar from a civilization destroyed by climate change, 1984 was the title of a science fiction novel with no pretension to scientific rigor, and Y2K really existed - was only averted by rapid and expensive emergency response to a very simple legacy software bug among the hundreds afflicting Microsoft products.

 

The reason Y2K didn't take down your utilities, hospitals, emergency services, and transportation network, was that the grownups had done something about it in advance.

 

If the science is so definite why is there so much uncertainty about the date, anyway?

Because it's a matter of physical reality, not science fiction or misreads of defunct calendars.

[Harold Squared]

For much the same reason that it's difficult to tell a patient diagnosed with cancer the exact date they will die or to pinpoint the exact date a planted seed will result in the first fruit on a tree. Also, because it's not like we'll go to bed with things fine on a Tuesday and wake up Wednesday unable to find water, food, or breathable air. The process is both additive and complex and the level of willful ignorance inherent in your question inspires both awe and pity.

 

On another note, it appears the forecasts were too conservative and things are getting worse faster than previously anticipated, but hey... You're old and selfish and don't give a snip about anybody else but yourself anyway, right?

 

http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n5/full/scientificamerican1112-50.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/30/climate-scientists-arent-too-alarmist-theyre-too-conservative/

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/30/overlooked-evidence-global-warming-may-proceed-faster-than-expected

Gratuitous ad hominem there, what, did you run out of cartoons? And if we are already DOOMED, then we will adapt in the traditional manner, I suppose. It has worked out okay so far. If the dreaded tipping point has come and gone I am underwhelmed and still looking for overtone's millions of refugees to show up.

The comment about trolling wasn't in response to a "simple question", was it?

It was in response to this

 

 

 

So the issue now is were you deluded or dishonest when you asked?

I quite sincerely want to know. Why is everyone being so evasive?

Lessee: 2012 was a misread of a calendar from a civilization destroyed by climate change, 1984 was the title of a science fiction novel with no pretension to scientific rigor, and Y2K really existed - was only averted by rapid and expensive emergency response to a very simple legacy software bug among the hundreds afflicting Microsoft products.

 

The reason Y2K didn't take down your utilities, hospitals, emergency services, and transportation network, was that the grownups had done something about it in advance.

Because it's a matter of physical reality, not science fiction or misreads of defunct calendars.

If your millions of Chinese internal refugees are "physical reality" perhaps you will indicate the provinces they are to be found in. Or give me a date when they will show up.

 

Reflecting further on "single study" phenomena, might such a study recently produced(manufactured?) by Karl, et al, supposedly erasing the well documented "hiatus" in temperature rise globally, meet the criteria?

 

Why or why not?

Edited July 28, 2015 by Harold Squared

[iNow]

And if we are already DOOMED, then we will adapt in the traditional manner, I suppose. It has worked out okay so far.

Yes, your logic is unassailable. Clearly, when the bathtub is already overflowing the smartest move is for us all to just let the water keep running. You sure got me there, Harry.

[Harold Squared]

Yes, your logic is unassailable. Clearly, when the bathtub is already overflowing the smartest move is for us all to just let the water keep running. You sure got me there, Harry.

If the Apocalypse is no more serious than an overflowing bathtub then I think it is quite literally a tempest in a teacup. But you are not mixing your metaphors as dreadfully as you have been known to, so, progress. Good show!

[John Cuthber]

I quite sincerely want to know. Why is everyone being so evasive?

 

We aren't.

[overtone]

And if we are already DOOMED, then we will adapt in the traditional manner, I suppose. It has worked out okay so far.

If one of the more dramatically disastrous tipping points has been passed, such as the detonation of the methane bomb, then it has not worked out ok so far - really, really not worked out ok so far. It's worked out about as far from ok as can be imagined. And the traditional adaptation will be bottleneck species survival as scattered populations of hunter/gatherers.

 

Let's say none of those tipping points have been passed, and talk about what we should be doing in more optimistic - and fortunately, by sheer luck, more likely - views of the situation. Should we be acting to delay and head off the more severe consequences of current trends, or acting to make them worse and arrive sooner?

 

 

 

 

If your millions of Chinese internal refugees are "physical reality" perhaps you will indicate the provinces they are to be found in. Or give me a date when they will show up.

They are to be found in the river delta wet rice farming regions along the southern coast, and in the "Three Furnaces" region of the Yangtze River valley. The millions living there will become refugees when or a little before the level of the South China sea has risen another 15 centimeters, and the second heat wave featuring wet bulb temperatures over 85 degrees for more than three days has hit that valley. Edited July 29, 2015 by overtone

[Harold Squared]

 

If one of the more dramatically disastrous tipping points has been passed, such as the detonation of the methane bomb, then it has not worked out ok so far - really, really not worked out ok so far. It's worked out about as far from ok as can be imagined. And the traditional adaptation will be bottleneck species survival as scattered populations of hunter/gatherers.

 

Let's say none of those tipping points have been passed, and talk about what we should be doing in more optimistic - and fortunately, by sheer luck, more likely - views of the situation. Should we be acting to delay and head off the more severe consequences of current trends, or acting to make them worse and arrive sooner?

 

They are to be found in the river delta wet rice farming regions along the southern coast, and in the "Three Furnaces" region of the Yangtze River valley. The millions living there will become refugees when or a little before the level of the South China sea has risen another 15 centimeters, and the second heat wave featuring wet bulb temperatures over 85 degrees for more than three days has hit that valley.

And still no dates, Jesus, this is worse than high school.

We aren't.

Then when is Doomsday?

[Strange]

And still no dates, Jesus, this is worse than high school.

Then when is Doomsday?

 

Of course, your posts are always full of objective evidence, well-researched data and copious references, aren't they. Aren't they? Oh no, they aren't.

[Harold Squared]

 

Things that are not true do not count as evidence.

Unless they are Mann made, right?

 

Of course, your posts are always full of objective evidence, well-researched data and copious references, aren't they. Aren't they? Oh no, they aren't.

Look, all I am asking for here is the date of the Tipping Point, if such a thing exists. According to your doctrine, it does, why can't anyone cough it up? I am having a hard time converting my buddies who are still in denial about this matter, help a guy out.

[timo]

All these guys, they all start with the premise that there is no problem, ignoring what the data is saying, and then try to make everything fit that premise.

There is nothing wrong with this. The many replies show that there is a great interest in this way of approaching issues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Acme]

 

All these guys, they all start with the premise that there is no problem, ignoring what the data is saying, and then try to make everything fit that premise.

There is nothing wrong with this. The many replies show that there is a great interest in this way of approaching issues.

 

Poppycock. The many replies just indicate an interest in calling BS on trolling . Me thinks there is a severe lack of truthiness when Harold says he is now convinced and yet refers to 'your doctrine' and 'converting my buddies who are still in denial'. Nothing wrong with ignoring the data? Really? Phhhh.

[Harold Squared]

Not asking for data, just a date. OUR doctrine should include it.

[Strange]

This wasn't funny 3 pages ago. It still isn't. Grow up.

[swansont]

Unless they are Mann made, right?

 

Can't discuss the science, so you you go for the snark, eh? Manufactured problems that were debunked long ago.

Look, all I am asking for here is the date of the Tipping Point, if such a thing exists. According to your doctrine, it does, why can't anyone cough it up? I am having a hard time converting my buddies who are still in denial about this matter, help a guy out.

 

There are two possibilities. One is that you truly don't understand why such a specific bit of prediction can't exist, and yet you argue with a frightening certainty that you understand things. The other is that you do understand, and you make the argument anyway.

 

Neither one is reassuring in the least.

[overtone]

 

 

Look, all I am asking for here is the date of the Tipping Point, if such a thing exists. According to your doctrine, it does, why can't anyone cough it up?

Because no one can tell where they are, and no one is sure where we are either.

 

There are several potential tipping points, with varying ;potential consequences from a general increase in misery and expense to global catastrophe for the species.

 

Apparently we have passed the tipping points for a couple of major Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the summer ice cover of the Arctic ocean and major glaciers in Greenland. That's the current most likely assessment by the professionals analyzing their data - we're going to lose them, regardless of what we do now. But we didn't know that until after we had passed them.

 

So tell your buddies to fasten their seat belts.