Yoseph Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 Hello! I was wondering if anyone was interested in helping me calculate the probability of being alive as a human. In other words, the probability of you or I being here. For example to start things off it was a one in 300 million (on average) chance that the combination of the sperm and egg involved in your conception grew into you. However most couples attempt to conceive several times until they are successful and may have several kids. So the first thing we need is the chance of you arising from any two people based on the current population (or the population at your birth). We then need a probability of your parents meeting based on the population and in turn a probability of them being born at all, calculated the same way as before but with a respectively smaller population. This calculation I think could be looped back in sections and the probability of each generation multiplied together to get a (very very (very)) small probability. The reason I was posting this here is I think the experts here in evolution will be able to point out certain sections (time periods) where the probability changes. For example before humans the animals will have different mating habits and populations which will affect the calculation. If anyone can fill in any gaps anywhere or contribute any information which will help the calculation that would be much appreciated. Alternatively if you think this is a stupid waste of time or incalculable for any reason I'd prefer you stop me now by letting me know why! Peace.
Prometheus Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 I'm happy with the conditional probability of me being here given I'm here being one. I can't even fathom the 1 in 300 million chance you mention let alone a 1 in 300 billion or some such, so just wondering from a qualitative perspective what calculating the overall chances will add. It might be a waste of time - but if it's a fun waste of time, why not.
StringJunky Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 Probability of your being born: one in 102,685,000 As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 1080. So what's the probability of your being born? It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. By that definition, you are a miracle. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. http://www.sodahead.com/living/probability-of-being-born/question-4198197/ Something like that?
Phi for All Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 The reason I was posting this here is I think the experts here in evolution will be able to point out certain sections (time periods) where the probability changes. For example before humans the animals will have different mating habits and populations which will affect the calculation. You want a calculation of the probability of being a specific human, as opposed to all the other creatures that ever lived?! How far back are you going, the first mammals? Or do we go back to the small fish that later became all the vertebrates? Or are you including bacteria? They qualify as alive in most descriptions I've heard.
Greg H. Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 The probability of me is 100% But the probability of you being me is much lower.
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 The probability of me is 100% It's much more likely you are just a Boltzmann Brain, dreaming all this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzS2xL1yTSQ
Yoseph Posted July 1, 2015 Author Posted July 1, 2015 Something like that? Yes! Well that settles most of the calculation... Except that it it's using 150,000 generations for the calculation which is presumably the number of generations as a human... So that's that section done. I mean I'm happy with that estimate anyway, it would probably become meaningless and inaccurate to calculate it any further.
StringJunky Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 Yes! Well that settles most of the calculation... Except that it it's using 150,000 generations for the calculation which is presumably the number of generations as a human... So that's that section done. I mean I'm happy with that estimate anyway, it would probably become meaningless and inaccurate to calculate it any further. Yes, that's gong back to the estimated beginning of Homo sapiens, a million or two years. The number is incomprehensibly large at that point, so there's little point going back any further.
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