Trump Vs Mexico

[DimaMazin]

Well, looking on the bright side, he has solved the question of whether it was a one-off ill thought through rant.

I guess he's not trying to target the Hispanic voters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/11734214/Donald-Trump-says-Mexicans-are-killing-us-in-latest-inflammatory-speech.html

Putin's friends are nasty people.

[iNow]

'Murica

 

[DimaMazin]

Friendship with Putin causes military development of Russia. Military development of Russia causes expansion of Russia in Europe and war in Europe. War in Europe causes war of USA with Russia. Trump's words contradict themselves.

[imatfaal]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-the-worlds-greatest-troll/

 

Trolls operate on the principle that negative attention is better than none. In fact, the troll may feed off the negative attention, claiming it makes him a victim and proves that everyone is out to get him.

 

Sound like any presidential candidates you know?

[CharonY]

That is actually not quite how I thought it would pan out.

[Phi for All]

If I were Jeb Bush, I couldn't write checks to Trump fast enough for his uniquely invaluable help to my campaign.

[Bill Angel]

I admit that seems unlikely, but like Ross Perot and Teddy Roosevelt before him, his independent campaign might significantly affect the election in the event he chooses to mount one.

Good point.

And one plausable scenerio is that Trump does not get the Republican nomination, but rather than fade quietly out of the picture chooses to mount an independent run for the Presidency the way Ross Perot did in 1992.

[iNow]

Reince Priebus, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, wants all GOP candidates to pledge NOT to run as 3rd party candidates, because... you know... freedom and representative democracy or something.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/2016-election-republican-reince-priebus-rnc-120653.html

 

On another note:

 

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution." - John Adams

 

"The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty." - George Washington

[Airbrush]

It was disappointing how Trump answered the question in the Fox News debate: "What was his EVIDENCE that the Mexican government is sending their worst people here, rapists, murderers, human traffickers, drug cartel members, etc." At first Trump evaded the question and spoke about something else, and the questioner had to remind Trump of this question. Finally Trump answered that he had been to the border recently and border guards told him so. It would kill him to be a little more specific and give some more details, he had one minute to answer.

 

It is well known that the Mexican government is often corrupt, so to suggest some in the Mexican government are sending aweful people here is not far fetched. And of course, not all the people involved in illegal immigration are bad people, maybe some are "nice people" who got forced into it.

 

Trump looks weaker to me after the debate. All he could say was repeat what he already said, that he is rich and smart and wonderful, and all other politicians are inferior to him.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Airbrush

[MigL]

Trump may know squat about government policy and function.

But he does know about publicity.

 

He's not making gaffes; He's staying in the spotlight.

He knows that name recognition is the biggest asset to getting elected.

 

God help the Western world if we end up with Bozo the Clown in the White House.

( and now Overtone will correct me and say that it wouldn't be the first time )

[John Cuthber]

I suspect that some of his latest "not gaffes" rather lost him the women voters.

Still, if he stands as an independent and splits the republican vote that suits me.

The interesting bit will be if he holds the party to ransom by threatening to do so if they don't support him.

re. " and now Overtone will correct me and say that it wouldn't be the first time "

What's to correct?

You said it.

[MigL]

You wound me, John.

[Phi for All]

You wound me, John.

 

I think he was just saying it wouldn't be a correction. It would be a comment on your statement.

[Ten oz]

Trump's popularity is not amongst likely Republican primary voters. While about 125 million people voted in the general election in 2012 only about 18 million voted in that years Republican primary. Trump is popular amongst people who identify as independent and libertarian. Neither group are likely primary voters. Bernie Sanders has the same problems. All the independents and never voted before young people supporting him need to register as democrats to even be eligible to vote in the primary. It is an extra step the other traditional candidates don't have. It is also important to consider that delegates are won. Total votes do not alone choose a win. It is a party nomination. The party chooses their own nominee.

 

Ron Paul was popular. Ron Paul always polled well and was seen as a great debater. Once the primaries started Ron Paul never won the nomination. Trump is in the same boat.

[npts2020]

All the independents and never voted before young people supporting him need to register as democrats to even be eligible to vote in the primary. It is an extra step the other traditional candidates don't have.

At least 15 states have open Presidential primaries and a couple others have semi-open primaries (like Massachusetts where independents can vote for anyone in the primary).

[Willie71]

Trump's popularity has been looked at. Two ideas jump,out. First, Trump's largest support comes from people without post secondary education. Only 8% of trump supporters attended college. So it's high school grads and high school dropouts(mentioned specifically- I don't remember the %.) and secondly, his language in the debate was evaluated at grade 4. A previous speech was grade 3. He's appealing to the low hanging fruit. Kasick was grade 5. Paul was grade 9 IIRC. Trump's solutions fit with a simplistic worldview, one that doesn't understand why these black and white solutions can't work. They are appealing to mysogynists, and bullies. With the deformation (not reformation) of education in the U.S., the south in particular, we are more likely to see support for these ideas in future, not less.

[iNow]

People who like and support Trump do so based on the feelings they have about him in their belly, not due to the calculus they've done about him in their brain.

 

It's not about policy positions or ideology, but about perceptions of strength and a seeming willingness to take on any attacker and say whatever he wants without first poll testing words or worrying about logic or internal consistency.

 

As noted above, he appeals to the less educated and those only loosely connected to politics, which unfortunately describes huge numbers of the U.S. population who are also frustrated and unhappy and looking for someone who reflects that.

[MigL]

I hope you're not suggesting, Willie, that people without secondary education aren't allowed an opinion and a vote; And that those of us with higher education should 'decide' for them.

 

Maybe these more educated people that you mentioned who made speeches at grade levels higher than 3 or 4 should be bright enough to figure out a way to appeal to Trump's supporters ( like he has ).

[Ten oz]

In 1968 George Wallace ran as a 3rd party candidate on a platform of segregation and Carried 5 states. Wallace won 13.5% of the popular vote. Lone issue candidates tapping in to anger over heritage and race is not new.

 

History also shows us that early primary success does not always equal primary victories. Ron Paul always polled well, alway got the most applause at debates, and always fizzled when primary voting began.

[iNow]

I hope you're not suggesting, Willie, that people without secondary education aren't allowed an opinion and a vote; And that those of us with higher education should 'decide' for them.

Is this really what you concluded upon reading his post? This question seems to come from WAY out in left field...

.

History also shows us that early primary success does not always equal primary victories. Ron Paul always polled well, alway got the most applause at debates, and always fizzled when primary voting began.

See also: Michele Bachmann, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Herman Cain... Awww, shucky ducky now!

[swansont]

 

History also shows us that early primary success does not always equal primary victories. Ron Paul always polled well, alway got the most applause at debates, and always fizzled when primary voting began.

 

"Polled well" isn't really accurate. He generally polled at 2 or 3 when there were several candidates, so he polled comparably to (or slightly better than) many candidates. But as people dropped out of the race, he didn't get many of those voters (or more importantly, the money they represented). Trump may be similar, but one key difference is several of Ron Paul's views distinguished him from the field — when Cain or Perry dropped out, I don't think anybody thought "Oh, Ron Paul is now my logical (or gut instinct) choice". He wasn't a replacement part for the other candidates.

 

But Trump doesn't seem to have the "the fed is evil", "war is bad" or "legalize drugs" differentiation. In many ways he's like the rest of the field, but without the "dog whistle" code, or diplomacy, in his speeches. He says what everyone else tries to be a little subtler about. He's a bully, and is appealing to bullies (as Willie said above) who don't understand actual policy, especially foreign policy. All of them are, to some extent, which is why to me they seem more or less interchangeable. He may well fizzle when the voting starts, but I don't think Ron Paul is a good analogy. We may go through the same "Anybody but this guy" litany of challenger candidates like we did last time with Romney.

[Willie71]

I hope you're not suggesting, Willie, that people without secondary education aren't allowed an opinion and a vote; And that those of us with higher education should 'decide' for them.

 

Maybe these more educated people that you mentioned who made speeches at grade levels higher than 3 or 4 should be bright enough to figure out a way to appeal to Trump's supporters ( like he has ).

Nope. Not what I'm saying at all.

[Ten oz]

"Polled well" isn't really accurate. He generally polled at 2 or 3 when there were several candidates, so he polled comparably to (or slightly better than) many candidates. But as people dropped out of the race, he didn't get many of those voters (or more importantly, the money they represented). Trump may be similar, but one key difference is several of Ron Paul's views distinguished him from the field — when Cain or Perry dropped out, I don't think anybody thought "Oh, Ron Paul is now my logical (or gut instinct) choice". He wasn't a replacement part for the other candidates.

 

But Trump doesn't seem to have the "the fed is evil", "war is bad" or "legalize drugs" differentiation. In many ways he's like the rest of the field, but without the "dog whistle" code, or diplomacy, in his speeches. He says what everyone else tries to be a little subtler about. He's a bully, and is appealing to bullies (as Willie said above) who don't understand actual policy, especially foreign policy. All of them are, to some extent, which is why to me they seem more or less interchangeable. He may well fizzle when the voting starts, but I don't think Ron Paul is a good analogy. We may go through the same "Anybody but this guy" litany of challenger candidates like we did last time with Romney.

 

I agree. My point about Paul was simply that polling good doesn't always translate into primary wins.

 

Popularity or general public support isn't what wins primaries. 125 million people voted in the general election in 2012 but only 13 million voted in the Republican primary. It is all about where voting booths are put, which neighborhoods have staffers out registering people in, and who paid off which local committees.

[MigL]

Don't misunderstand. I think D. Trump would be the biggest mistake America has ever made.

 

But its a series of very small steps from Willie saying Trump supporters are uneducated, to INow replying that they don't think ( I think he actually said do the calculus about him ), to someone else saying, well, maybe they shouldn't get a vote.

 

Even uneducated Jeds have a right to an opinion and a vote in a democratic society.

Pointing out their educational deficiencies, 'implies' that they don't know what they're talking about, and their thinking is in error.

Trump has made a 'connection' with issues that are important, maybe not to you and me, but certainly to them.

The other candidates so far, haven't. Nor have they explained why these issues may not be so important.

[iNow]

But its a series of very small steps from Willie saying Trump supporters are uneducated, to INow replying that they don't think ( I think he actually said do the calculus about him ), to someone else saying, well, maybe they shouldn't get a vote.

Nobody here said that. Nobody here implied that should occur. The things people here DID say are quite a significant number of steps away from arguing that we should disenfranchise those with whom we disagree or consider ignorant.

 

To paraphrase swansont, this isn't jazz. Stop listening to the words we don't say and focus instead on what we do. Miscommunication and misunderstanding will be far less of a challenge here if you do.