Turkey shoots down Russian war plane

[Moontanman]

Turkey has shot down a Russian war plane that violated it's territory airspace. Turkey has called for an emergency meeting of NATO over this issue and Russia is of course screaming innocence and reportedly Putin is somewhat less than happy.

 

Any thoughts on how this is going to play out ? Personally I think the situation is quite dangerous and could prompt armed conflict with NATO and of course the US as well.

 

Thoughts?

[waitforufo]

Putin knows Obama is a coward. If he attacks Turkey NATO's response will likely be zero. Sure the cowardly professor will pout and study it ad infinitum but ultimately nothing will be done. Could be the end of NATO. We will just have to see if Putin rolls the dice.

[Ophiolite]

It appears to me that the action by Turkey was in response to two things: prior violations of Turkish airspace; persistent attacks against the Turkmen rebels. The latter is by far the more important of the two.

 

Turkey is arming the Turkmen, who are anti-Assad, which - of course - is why they are targets of the Russian planes. This is Turkey's way of saying "back off". While it seems the planes (I believe there were two) did cross Turkish airspace the incursion was brief and arguably they were on their way out of that airspace when the attack occurred.

 

Putin will require to thump the table and turn red in order to maintain his image. He may be persuaded to be more circumspect in future targeting arrangements, with the emphasis switching to IS. If he is not so persuaded I have little doubt the Turks will be quite prepared to shoot down further Russian craft.

[MigL]

This whole business of 'joint' operations in Syria is bound to get messy as all the players have differing agendas.

 

In the immortal words of Fred Thompson ( failed US presidential candidate, but good actor ) in ' the Hunt for Red October '...

 

" This business will get out of control.

It'll get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it. "

 

( what, too dramatic ? )

Edited November 24, 2015 by MigL

[Phi for All]

Can Putin afford to take aggressive steps against Turkey when the more obvious enemy is still there?

 

It's interesting to note that so far, the two conservative viewpoints shared are really slim on reason / heavy on emotional opinion.

 

I don't mind it so much anymore. I find it highlight posts where some thought was involved, and some concern was shown for informing me rather than trying to bias me.

[MigL]

I assume you mean me as one of the 'conservatives'.

Perhaps you'd care to explain in what way my response was 'conservative' ?

 

Is it because I mentioned a failed Republican nominee ?

Is it because my response was 'light-hearted' and you think I should be serious ?

Is it because I've often offered a different viewpoint to some members of this forum who consider themselves liberal ?

(and so by extension, if I present a differing view, I must be a 'conservative' )

 

The only serious assertion I made is that when you have many different players with different agendas, things are bound to get messy.

And they have, as evidenced by the downing of the Russian plane. What more reasoning do you need ?

If on the other hand, you're questioning the number of different players/different agendas, I can provide you with as many links as you need.

 

So. other than a thinly veiled dismissal of my post as being "conservative', what exactly was the point of your post ?

What concern did you show for informing the membership ?

And if its a 'Liberal' vs 'Conservative' comment I suggest it is off topic in this thread.

Wouldn't want a moderator to admonish you.

 

P.S. Or is it just your bias showing through ?

Edited November 25, 2015 by MigL

[iNow]

Go Turkey. About time.

 

Putin either further escalates or gets more out of negotiations for various things he wants (since we'll likely try to get him to mellow out through appeasement options). That's my guess.

[pavelcherepan]

There are a lot of things that bother me about this incident, but most of all - why such a high quality video footage became available almost straight away? I don't dismiss the possibility that a film crew just happened to be there when the downing happened and they happened to be filming stuff (in an area where no fighting has been going on), but still it seems rather odd.

 

I think I'll go play Fallout 4. Who knows, knowledge of survival in post-apocalyptic world might come in handy in the near future.

Edited November 25, 2015 by pavelcherepan

[Ophiolite]

Phi, I have to echo MigL's puzzlement. When you referenced "two conservative" responses I wondered if you meant me.

 

I reread all the posts. I decided you considered waitforufo's post to be one of the conservatives - though I think just calling it silly would be more accurate. That left MigL's and mine. After multiple readings I could not see anything in MigL's post that seemed definitively conservative. This must mean I am the other conservative.

 

For many years I have thought I was a left leaning, anti-establishment, tree hugging liberal. To discover so late in life that I am in fact a conservative has shocked me deeply. I am not sure I shall ever recover.

[iNow]

It's unlikely either Russia or the US will escalate. It helps neither. The hard part will be that the US is actively seeking help from both Russia and Turkey right now to fight ISIS. Recall also that Russia basically has only Iran and Syria's Assad as allies (not yet sure how/if China will respond) wherein Turkey has multiple allies and is part of NATO.

[waitforufo]

And so it begins.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/25/europe/nato-putin-turkey-syria-analysis/index.html

[iNow]

Not sure what you're trying to say. And so what begins?

 

(also, anything that "began" happened long ago when Russia started killing Turkmen along the Turkey border and kept doing so despite open and secret talks among leaders and diplomats seeking cessation of those acts... also when Russia repeatedly invaded Turkish airspace month after month, much like they did prior to annexing Crimea from Ukraine... again, despite open and secret talks seeking cessation)

 

EDIT: Turkmen is a region, not a reference to Turkish people. My mistake, but regardless of what we name them those killings have been part of what's inflamed tensions.

Edited November 25, 2015 by iNow

[Endy0816]

I think it might possibly serve as an excuse but not a reason should anything of substance come of it. Multiple members have had conflicting interests for awhile.

 

I'd wager it is more likely a song and dance routine will take place instead though. Everyone knows Putin has been an asshat lately. Whatever their individual differences everyone loves the idea of taking Russia down a notch(without getting their own hands dirty).

 

Russia is posturing on the water, but we'll have to wait and see if anything actually comes of it. Everyone wants to conduct a multi-proxy war rather than be dragged into a brawl for nothing in the way of territorial gains.

[iNow]

Interestingly, Turkey stands the most to lose from this action/sentiment given how much of their oil & natural gas and wheat (i.e. food) comes from Russia and also how much of their national revenue comes directly from Russian tourism.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-mideast-crisis-russia-turkey-ties-fac-idUKKBN0TD26K20151124

Turkey, which has visa-free travel with Russia, has become more attractive for Russian tourists after Moscow suspended flights to Egypt. About 4.4 million Russians, including 3.3 million Russian tourists, visited Turkey in 2014.

<snip>

Turkey is the second-largest buyer of Russian natural gas after Germany. Russia is Turkey's largest natural gas supplier, with Ankara buying 28-30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of its 50 bcm of natural gas needs annually from Russia.

<snip>

Turkey together with Egypt is the largest buyer of Russian wheat. It bought 4.1 million tonnes of Russian wheat in the previous marketing year, which ended on June 30.

Russian businesses are already claiming they plan to boycott Turkey and their products as a result of them taking down the plane.

[Phi for All]

Phi, I have to echo MigL's puzzlement. When you referenced "two conservative" responses I wondered if you meant me.

 

I reread all the posts. I decided you considered waitforufo's post to be one of the conservatives - though I think just calling it silly would be more accurate. That left MigL's and mine. After multiple readings I could not see anything in MigL's post that seemed definitively conservative. This must mean I am the other conservative.

 

For many years I have thought I was a left leaning, anti-establishment, tree hugging liberal. To discover so late in life that I am in fact a conservative has shocked me deeply. I am not sure I shall ever recover.

 

Actually, I found your response to be more of an attempt to honestly appraise the situation with as much perspective as you could offer. You didn't seem to want me to feel anything, you were just informing me.

 

I didn't want to derail the discussion, but I found the immediate responses intriguing. I'm perhaps overly sensitive these days to appeals to emotion, especially when it's in reaction to military engagements. This is a tense situation, and I don't think it helps to throw up your hands and immediately declare we'll be lucky not to die because Obama is a coward and NATO is doomed.

 

I usually don't mention my positive rep votes, but perhaps I should have in this case. I enjoyed the rational response, Ophiolite. Thanks very much, +1.

[MigL]

And you're still doing it Phy.

I think your 'sensitivity' is reading way too much into a movie quote.

"We'll be lucky not to die because Obama is a coward and NATO is doomed"...??????

 

That's an awfully big interpretational leap.

 

If you think I'm judging you unfairly ( as you are doing to me ) message me and we'll straighten it out.

[iNow]

Maybe we can acknowledge that politics in the US are different than those elsewhere (like Canada and UK) and that the word conservative means different things depending on context or group? Said another way, maybe we can move on and stay focused on the actual thread topic?

[StringJunky]

I like to see off-the-cuff reactions, as well as thoughtful ones... if we all agreed, we'd have no conversation.

 

My first thought was what Turkey did (from my omnipresent computer) was triple facepalm material... not sensitive to the evolving dynamics of this quite fraught scenario. What's right one day is totally wrong on another; timing is everything.

Edited November 25, 2015 by StringJunky

[iNow]

Putin strikes me as someone who would be very good at chess.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-sends-air-defense-missiles-to-syria-to-deter-turkey-2015-11

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered state-of-the art air defense missile systems to be deployed at a Russian air base in Syria <snip> The S-400 missile systems, which will be sent to the Hemeimeem air base in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia, located just about 50 kilometers (30 miles) south of the border with Turkey, are capable of targeting Turkish jets with deadly precision. <snip> On Wednesday, Putin ordered the military to deploy the S-400s to Hemeimeem and took other measures that “should be sufficient to ensure flight safety.” <snip> Shoigu also said that from now on all Russian bombers will be escorted by fighters on their combat missions in Syria. He said that his ministry has severed all contacts with the Turkish military.

[StringJunky]

Putin strikes me as someone who would be very good at chess.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-sends-air-defense-missiles-to-syria-to-deter-turkey-2015-11

I think it is a chess game and pertinent to my previous comment... gotta think twice before moving.

Edited November 25, 2015 by StringJunky

[waitforufo]

You got to love this article.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-track-russia-plane-shot-down-turkey-turkish-airspace/

This as a pretty nice missile system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_(missile)

Great quote.

 

 

On Wednesday, the Russian leader ordered the military to deploy the S-400s to Hemeimeem and take other measures that "should be sufficient to ensure flight safety."

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday that the Russian missile cruiser Moskva already has moved closer to shore to protect the Russian aircraft flying missions near Syria's border with Turkey with its long-range Fort air defense system.

"It will be ready to destroy any aerial target posing a potential danger to our aircraft," Shoigu said at a meeting with military officials.

This one follows

 

 

 

He also said that from now on all Russian bombers will be escorted by fighters on their combat missions in Syria. He said that his ministry has severed all contacts with the Turkish military.

[pavelcherepan]

I can't say I'm unbiased in this situation, I'm Russian after all, but I haven't seen any unbiased opinions in this discussion so I don't feel bad about it. Also, I've been living away from Russia for quite a few years now, but still read Russian media as well as English-language media, so it's nice to see both sides of the picture, which, unfortunately, many posters here don't have access to.

 

 

 

Everyone knows Putin has been an asshat lately.

 

That opinion is to be expected. Since coming to power in 2000 Putin has been running a somewhat nationalist foreign relations line. And "nationalist" no in a sense of Nazi Germany nationalist, but in a sense of doing what's best for Russia and Russian people in general without much of a regard for everyone else. That's why his approval ratings at home a sky-high, that's why so many people outside of Russia hate him, but for exactly same reasons people around the world dislike US.

 

 

 

Whatever their individual differences everyone loves the idea of taking Russia down a notch

 

Well, I don't.

 

 

 

Putin strikes me as someone who would be very good at chess.

 

I guess, this kind of response was to be expected. Also, the decision to increase airforce numbers has already been made. A few Su-27SMs will be relocated to Syria to escort every single bomber on their missions. This actually worries me a lot. The original batch of pilots were the most experienced and trained guys in the army, so now if with this knee-jerk decision some newbies will make it to Syria, the situation will only get worse. Who knows how an inexperienced fighter pilot can react in a dangerous situation.

 

Also, back in 2012 Turkish F-4 was shot down in Syria after wandering in its airspace to which former prime minister and now president Erdogan said the following:

 

 

 

"A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack"

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20151125/1030698044/erdogan-airspace-violation-contradiction.html#ixzz3sYZMR8vB

 

 

 

(also, anything that "began" happened long ago when Russia started killing Turkmen along the Turkey border and kept doing so despite open and secret talks among leaders and diplomats seeking cessation of those acts... also when Russia repeatedly invaded Turkish airspace month after month, much like they did prior to annexing Crimea from Ukraine... again, despite open and secret talks seeking cessation)

 

I guess, if we consider all the potential reasons for heated relations between Russia and Turkey we should also include:

 

* Russia supports president Assad, while Turkey wants him gone

* Allegedly, Turkey profits from illegal oil imports from IS controlled territories and in recent weeks Russian military has destroyed quite a few oil convoys

* Turkey might be interested in spreading its influence over the northern Syria, which is now complicated due to Russian military presence

* Assad victory would greatly benefit Iran and Shia Muslim groups, while Turkey supports Sunni rebels

 

And, lastly, this is Middle East and I forgot who said that, but the general idea was that the last European who was able to really understand the actual complex workings in the Middle East was T.E. Lawrence a.k.a. Lawrence of Arabia, but, unfortunately, he's long gone.

[Endy0816]

I can't say I'm unbiased in this situation, I'm Russian after all, but I haven't seen any unbiased opinions in this discussion so I don't feel bad about it. Also, I've been living away from Russia for quite a few years now, but still read Russian media as well as English-language media, so it's nice to see both sides of the picture, which, unfortunately, many posters here don't have access to.

 

 

That opinion is to be expected. Since coming to power in 2000 Putin has been running a somewhat nationalist foreign relations line. And "nationalist" no in a sense of Nazi Germany nationalist, but in a sense of doing what's best for Russia and Russian people in general without much of a regard for everyone else. That's why his approval ratings at home a sky-high, that's why so many people outside of Russia hate him, but for exactly same reasons people around the world dislike US.

 

He's harming regional relations by seizing territory, promoting the targeting LGBT individuals and helping to send his country's economy into the crapper. I really don't know any other way his actions can be painted.

 

He does have a great propaganda machine set up, I'll give him that.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31962644

 

Should note google translate works reasonably well and there are English versions of Russian publications. Not quite back to before the Tower of Babel fell, but we're getting there.

 

My other comment was regarding NATO member countries. At least a few of the countries probably even discussed things before hand. If you know someone is likely to do something again, not hard to make plans in advance.

[pavelcherepan]

 

 

promoting the targeting LGBT individuals

 

I have close friends in LGBT community in Russia so I don't like recent laws on that topic, but may I ask: why do you think you or anyone else should decide things for Russian people? AFAIK all recent polls show overwhelming support of anti-LGBT-propaganda law from general populace in Russia, something over 80%, so if we used democratic procedures and had a referendum on this question, the law would still stand.

 

 

 

At least a few of the countries probably even discussed things before hand. If you know someone is likely to do something again, not hard to make plans in advance.

 

Could you clarify what exactly you're referring to?

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_propaganda

 

Well, propaganda is one of the cornerstones of any government whether you like it or not. Whichever country you live in I can assure you that you regularly get significant amounts of propaganda through media. Also this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_propaganda

[iNow]

I have close friends in LGBT community in Russia so I don't like recent laws on that topic, but may I ask: why do you think you or anyone else should decide things for Russian people? AFAIK all recent polls show overwhelming support of anti-LGBT-propaganda law from general populace in Russia, something over 80%, so if we used democratic procedures and had a referendum on this question, the law would still stand.

It's not about deciding things for the Russian people. It's about protecting basic human rights and standing up for common decency. It's about choosing to live in the 21st century instead of ignorantly clinging to the social norms of the 11th and advocating for others to do the same. .

 

By comparison, polls in the US used to show overwhelming support for segregation of blacks and for preventing women from voting, but that didn't make laws enforcing those ideas any less wrong and misguided and we're all consequently better now without them.

 

Equality protects us all, not just those who happen to be out of favor during a particular generation or news cycle.