White Male mortality in the U.S.

[CharonY]

 

I am saying it doesn't statistically appear to help.

 

Actually, that it is a bit vague and to make that claim one would have to compare the same community with and without religion, which is pretty much impossible. Another way would be indirectly compare the effects on overall suicide rates on different levels but that is going to be tricky. Some studies suggest that in depression patients the rate is lower for religious people, for example. But if the effect size is noticeable is a different matter altogether. The amount of confouding factors is just too complicated for strong statements, I think.

[Ten oz]

Actually, that it is a bit vague and to make that claim one would have to compare the same community with and without religion, which is pretty much impossible. Another way would be indirectly compare the effects on overall suicide rates on different levels but that is going to be tricky. Some studies suggest that in depression patients the rate is lower for religious people, for example. But if the effect size is noticeable is a different matter altogether. The amount of confouding factors is just too complicated for strong statements, I think.

Depression studies are different that suicides, alcohol, and drug use. How religious a city or states is, based on people's polled preferences and the number of churches, does seem to impact the rate of suicides, alcohol, and drug use.

[tar]

Ten Oz,

 

The confounding factors though are difficult to separate, as CharonY points out. Like consider the patriarchal nature of churches, combined with the emasculation factors I suggested earlier. In this light, a female in the church might feel a lack of control where a male would feel an enhanced control, explaining why female suicide might be higher and males lower, when considering the effect of a patriarchal church. And at the same time, a lowering of the number of people in general that went to church, would take away this avenue of power and control from the males that otherwise would have attended and been decons or otherwise found a level of power and control in supporting the church establishment.

 

And there is also a tendency for people alone and in trouble to turn to the church and religion, which would over all associate drugs and alcohol and personal problems and people that would wind up in jail, with religion as an effect, not a cause.

I note here the way that inmates turn to religion, and people in trouble "find" Christ, and certain groups like AA use god in their language and direction as to what gives an alcoholic strength...so there are two effects that religion might have on suicide numbers. One to keep one from taking their life in the first place, and two to minister to those who are about to take their lives because of drugs or alcohol or loneliness or despair.

 

Most of the time I have spent in church in my adult life has been around a marriage or a death or a celebration of service to the community. The church knows something about life and death. What I mean here, is that since there is no evidence of an objective god, the stories of such have to be figurative, and since there are plenty of people that feel that objective reality is real and responsible for our existence and that feel in return a responsibility for and a responsibililty to objective reality, there is another way to look at religion, other than a bunch of people who can't think. That is, that perhaps all of us are the judge and protector of each of us, and the symbols in the church are just symbols of that love and respect we have for each other.

 

In any case, I think it would be a mistake to consider the church in general as any one thing, because it is not.

 

Regards, TAR

Edited January 25, 2016 by tar

[Ten oz]

@ TAR, I have no doubt religion helps a lot of people. I have no doubt many people close to suicide have sought help at church. I am not denying that it can help. I am simply saying that statistically it does not appear that the prevalence of religion in a community changes the trends. You can provide that false by linking stats should a connect between lower rates of suicide in cities and states with larger religious populations. Other than that I feel it is a waste if time to discuss because I am not denying that any given individual(s) can be help by religion.

[tar]

Thread,

 

Another thought.

 

I heard that vets are experiencing problems with suicide.

 

I am wondering how this has effected the number of white male deaths by suicide.

 

Just speculating here, but if the higher rates of white male suicides, correlate to any particular population of veterans, as in that have a certain rank, or that participated in a certain action, or that have received a certain injury or had seen a certain facet of war or police action that others had not seen, we might find the source of the issue.

 

Regards, TAR

[CharonY]

The suicide rate for male vets is slightly higher than of the average US population (32.1 vs 28.7 per 100,000), but much higher for females (28.7 vs 5.2 per 100,000). At least for male mortality it is unlikely to be driving factor.

[tar]

but wait charonY the number of females affected by combat is not large enough to significantly effect the numbers of female suicides in general, where the numbers of males affected by combat might be a greater percentage of overall males and therefore play a more significant factor in the overall male white suicide rate

 

The fact that female vets suicide at a higher rate than females in general would support the part of the guess that says being a vet could increase your suicide rate. Only thing left to show, is that there is a reason why white males would be vets with an issue in the last number of years.

[CharonY]

I didn't say that female suicide, especially of vets had anything to do with it . Rather that only among females the vet suicide rate is much higher compared to the population, but not so much make vet suicide. Thus it won't affect make mortality much.

[tar]

but won't male vet suicide increase the number of male white suicides?

And does not the increase in suicide rates for females vets as compared to females in general suggest that being a vet might provide some reason to kill yourself as compared to a similar population that had not served?

[iNow]

Perspective, tar. Adding a drop of water to the pool in the backyard does increase total amount of water, but not in a way that's relevant enough to bother considering. Same here.

[tar]

well wait, what is relevant enough to consider?

 

Lets say the average pool is 31,000 gallons and the population of the U.S. is 318,000,000. I didn't check my figuring but at 75,040 drops per gallon and 768 drops per teaspoon, I think each of us is worth about 7 and a half drops. 886 people under VA care that served in Iraq and Iran period service commited suicide. That is over 10 teaspoonns, not just a drop.

 

Suicide rates are measured in 1 per 100,0000 so we are already talking in 10s of thousands of a percent. To increase the suicide rate in white males from 8.6 per 100000 to 9.6 per 100000 wouldprobably take less than a cup. (so to speak, I did not figure)

 

The Iraq and Iran (I meant Afghanistan, not Iran) operations took place over the time period we are talking about, that has seen a rise in white male suicides inconsistent with the rise in other populations. Might be relevant.

another statistic I remember seeing is that the rate of suicide for highschool graduates is less than that for drop outs

 

as is my want, I put two and two together and get 8.83, but in the Army there were people in trouble with the law that joined instead of going to jail, and people that had not gone to college and people who did not have a high school degree

 

I got a 98.5 out of 100 on the entrance test. I learned later that the cutoff score to get into the Army was 16. If the Army attracts people that have a higher suicide rate to begin with, getting your legs blown off to boot might contribute to the 38 per 100,000 rate for vets.

Edited February 1, 2016 by tar

[Ten oz]

@ TAR, then produce numbers to support consideration. Without data to reflect an impact it is pointless to discuss.

[tar]

found this

 

http://news.yahoo.com/military-suicide-often-young-white-men-guns-181126521.html

[CharonY]

well wait, what is relevant enough to consider?

 

Lets say the average pool is 31,000 gallons and the population of the U.S. is 318,000,000. I didn't check my figuring but at 75,040 drops per gallon and 768 drops per teaspoon, I think each of us is worth about 7 and a half drops. 886 people under VA care that served in Iraq and Iran period service commited suicide. That is over 10 teaspoonns, not just a drop.

 

 

 

Tar, it is simple math. I do not have the precise numbers for the same years but the 32.1 per 100k represent about 6300 suicides. Decreasing it to the national average of 28.7 is about a total of 5632, i.e. an excess of about 660 suicides.

However, the total amount of male suicides is about 32k. Thus the 660 would amount to 0.2% difference. Considering that suicide is not even the main driver of mortality this amount is unlikely to contribute significantly to the tally.

[tar]

CharonY,

 

But .2% of what? .2 percent of 100,000 is 200 .2 percent of the population of the country is 318,000,000 times .002 or 636,000 people. My only point was that we are talking teaspoons and cups, rather than drops, where such a number as 6 or 8 hundred VA treated vets killing themselves, added to the suicides of vets not treated at the VA can become significantly more important in understanding white male suicides in general, than considering the numbers, not relevant. Besides the Afghan and Iraq actions have happened within the time frame where the numbers of white male suicides have inexplicably risen, compared to other populations, and this factor, may be at least a part of the answer to the thread question. Even if only .002 of the answer. So we still have to look for 99.8 percent of the answer, it could still be a start.

 

Regards, TAR

And .2 percent of a 32,000 gallon swimming pool is 64 gallons. That's a 55 gallon drum, not a drop.

[iNow]

Oh, FFS. It never stops

[tar]

iNow,

 

Lets say we have about 100,000,000 white males.

 

The suicide rate was about 10.4 per 100,000 at the start of the increase in suicides, about 10,400 suicides

the rate was 12.5 per 100,000 at the end of the period, or about 12,500 suicides

 

an extra 1000 suicides per year would account for the increase we are investigating.

 

finding a time sensitive American source of 800 suicides accounts for something significant the extra suicides over a 12 year period rose something like 200, 400, 600, 800, 1000, 1200, 1400, 1600, 1800, 2000, 2200, 2400 or about 15,000 extra suicides. 800 is 5.3 percent of 15,000 if half the VA suicides were white males, then at least 2.5 percent of the 15,000 extra suicides could be vets. Half the vets that committed suicide were deployed to Afghanistan or Iraq. So at least 1 percent of the increase in suicides could easily be attributable to deployment.

 

One percent of a 32,000 gallon pool, the pool being the extra suicides, is 320 gallons or 6, 55 gallon drums. Significantly more than a drop in a pool.

 

Regards, TAR

 

Regards, TAR

Edited February 7, 2016 by tar

[tar]

sorry I made an assumption. half the vets that committed suicide COULD have been deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, I should have said. The numbers just tell us that 47 percent of vets were deployed. The people that committed suicide could have all been among the 53 percent of vets that were not deployed. Still, whether staying home and not suffering with your buddies, or going and suffering war, might increase one's likelihood of committing suicide, what with pain killers being likely for injuries, and mood altering drugs being used to combat PTSD and such, and the numbers that say lower income individuals have a higher rate of suicide than people with education, the search for the reasons for the increase need not be found in the mind of a vet, but many of the factors related to suicide can be found at high rates, with conditions related to vets and the conditions are sufficient to explain at least some of the increase.

 

Just imagine coming home from war, disabled mentally or physically, having lost your girlfriend, with no jobs available as tank gunner and being prescribed a powerful pain killer for some chronic pain you are encouraged to report, to get the fantastic, but expensive high. How is that scenario going to turn out? Just adding up the numbers?

Edited February 7, 2016 by tar

[CharonY]

tar, are you reading posts before you comment on them? It is a difference of 660 total. So with about 32,000 suicides in that year, the contribution of vets above the normal population would amount to 32,600 suicides, or, an increase of ~0.2%.

If you track the numbers over time you see that vet suicides do not contribute much to the overall increase in male mortality. And note that the vet suicide number includes everyone that has served at any given point in their life (i.e. their suicide could be entirely unrelated to their vet experience).

 

What it means is simply that being a male vet increases the rate suicide very slightly, but the overall male suicide rate among non-vets is almost as high. Thus, while suicide may be one contributing factor of the increase in male mortality (with drug abuse being and even more relevant factor), being a vet does not change the number by much. Thus being a vet is not the driving factor behind suicides.

[tar]

CharonY,

 

Understood. It is not a major factor. But it is a relevant factor. Worth thinking about.

 

"Do young military personnel have higher risks and vulnerabilities which are further exacerbated by military service or is it specifically connected with the changing military situation? Is it due to the fact that in recent mission persons are faced with longer stays in the war zone, growing number of service tours (i.e., 6-month periods of war conditions), increasing stressful exposures in war zones? Are we facing growing feelings of guilt, existential crises or other complex problems of transition to civilian life due to changing socio-economic situation?"

 

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3407917/

 

Regards, TAR

we don't have to account for all suicides or all male suicides or all white male suicides. We just have to account for an increase in white male suicides over the last 15 years, and those "extra suicides are absolutely coincident to the actions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the extra suicides that would satisfy the numbers are just 200 more extra suicides a year.

and in regards, to the mortality numbers in general, even a death by DUI of the other driver, could be related to deployment of the vet driver on drugs or alcohol and thus related to PTSD and deployment in our last two conflicts

 

The overall vet numbers have not changed, in terms of suicide. Just vets of Afghanistan and Iraq are showing higher rates. Even first Gulf war vets do not show the higher rates that Afghanistan and Iraq show.

Edited February 7, 2016 by tar

[iNow]

Looks like it's actually white women having the problem (particularly in the south) and previous reports of white men were in error (as death rate for them has actually decreased):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/26/when-the-legend-becomes-fact-print-the-legend/

It turned out, though, that (a) the trends in death rates among men was much different then women, and, in fact, (b) after adjusting for age composition (the “middle-aged” category in the United States has had an increase in average age during the past two decades as the baby-boom generation has moved through), the death rate among middle-aged white men has actually decreased during the past few years.

 

The comparison with other ethnic groups and other countries still seems strong — Case and Deaton’s main findings hold up — but it’s just wrong to report that middle-aged white men are dying off. No matter how you slice it, it’s white women who are having the problem.

[Ten oz]

That is very interesting. The trend seemed to move together until 05' and then something changed for men. What can explain this?

[tar]

Thread,

 

Well nevermind then about the white male stuff...on to white women.

 

Now, I am prone to guesswork based on perceived changes, and one of the things I noticed, being an appreciator of the female form, is that lately, the last 10 years or so, it has become more the norm than the occasional, that you see a woman with too much extra over her form.

so

I don't know the cause of this, but I have some candidates, or guesses. I think something must have changed in our general diet, and in our general hormonal balances, as well as life style and societal norms.

 

It didn't used to be OK to be fat, but now it is more acceptable, almost as a extension of the tolerance and acceptance extended to handicapped and mentally challenged and sexual identity choices and the like. And extra weight or hormonal excesses could be related to health issues that might increase the death rate. And there might be emotional baggage related to being overweight that would cause relationship problems, or stresses that would result in abuse of alcohol and drugs which might put them at higher risk of suicide and overdose and the like.

 

Regards, TAR

Plus, and this might be the most important factor, women have more responsibility than they used to. Previous norms had women cleaning the house and cooking the food, doing the laundry and raising the children while the male brought home the bacon, took care of the outside of the home while the female took care of the inside. Now a woman still cleans and cooks and plans and takes care of the family, AND withstands the stresses of traffic and commuting and climbing the corporate ladder.

Edited May 30, 2016 by tar

[Ten oz]

new and disturbing report in The Lancet, based on data collected from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, shows an increase in the death rates from 1999 to 2014 for young Americans, driven substantially by a shocking increase in the mortality of white women aged 25 to 35.

The average annual change in death rate by age and sex for men and women from 1999 to 2014. For instance, 25-year-old white women experienced an average increase in mortality of 3% every year for those 15 years, while 25-year-old white men had an average annual increase of 1.9%. Mortality rates also went up for white men and women aged approximately 40 to 50 and 62 to 64.

All other ethnic groups, with the major exception of American Indians/Alaska Natives, experienced declines in mortality for all ages from 1999 to 2014.

http://acsh.org/news/2017/02/01/death-rates-young-white-americans-increased-1999-2014-10812

 

This issue has been in the news lately do to recent studies. The following link is a discussion about possible reasons:

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

 

I lean towards expectations playing a role. Someone who expected a certian lifestyle or level of living who fails to obtain it feels worse about themselves than those who meet their own expectations even if those expectations are very low. For example I feel good about my life. I enjoy my job, love my wife, think the condo we own is very nice, etc. That said if someone like Donald Trump or Mitt Romney woke up tomorrow in my shoes they would probably throw themselves out a window. The expectations they grew up with are wildly different than those I grew up with. I never assumed I'd own a private jet, highrise building, or etc. For them it was always a minimum for gone conclusion they would. Of course that is an extreme example but on a smaller scale if life winds up tougher than one assumed it would be it has a greater impact on the psyche than if all goes as thought.