New Hampshire Primary

[ydoaPs]

This isn't nearly as exciting as the Iowa caucuses. It's kind of stable with Sanders having ~56% and Clinton having ~40%. Though, at this point, only 9% of votes are in, so it might change. It's fairly static, so I doubt it, but it might.

[hypervalent_iodine]

I don't think anyone expected it to be different, did they? I'm interested to see how the Republican candidates end up faring once it's all in. Not looking so good for Rubio if he can't get up past the 10% he's currently on.

[iNow]

Trumps gonna run away with it and Kasich looks look a strong contender for 2nd. That'd be huge for him.

 

Bush, Rubio, and Cruz effectively tied for 3rd right now, though less than 10% reporting.

 

Bernie likely to win. Biggest question is by how much, and can momentum continue through South Carolina.

[ydoaPs]

Trumps gonna run away with it and Kasich looks look a strong contender for 2nd. That'd be huge for him.

 

Bush, Rubio, and Cruz effectively tied for 3rd right now, though less than 10% reporting.

 

Bernie likely to win. Biggest question is by how much, and can momentum continue through South Carolina.

And whether Hillary will respond by shooting herself in the foot like she did to the Iowa tie.

[iNow]

She is the overwhelming favorite in SC, though. It's likely much less strong now than before (since Bernie is representing incredibly well in IA and NH), but last polling I saw was Hillary at 70-80% in SC.

[mp][/mp]

Clinton has telephoned Bernie to congratulate him on his NH win / concede her loss and is about to give a speech. Clinton supporters worried.

[hypervalent_iodine]

The results in NH are not that surprising. I saw an article just before by Slate about Bernie's win with the comment, 'That's a big freaking deal." I'm sorry, but no it freaking isn't. He was leading in polls by double digits going into it.

 

It's not going to be anywhere near as easy for Sanders to motivate people in states like SC as it was in Iowa (which tends to get the more ideological voters on either end) or in the NH primary, and all of the polls going in have Hillary pegged well above him. I doubt he's going to have a win there, though his numbers have been on the up and up.

[iNow]

i take your point and largely agree, though the idea of Bernie winning any state is a BFD when viewed in context of where he began as a largely unknown senator from Vermont.

[ydoaPs]

She is the overwhelming favorite in SC, though. It's likely much less strong now than before (since Bernie is representing incredibly well in IA and NH), but last polling I saw was Hillary at 70-80% in SC.

[mp][/mp]

Clinton has telephoned Bernie to congratulate him on his NH win / concede her loss and is about to give a speech. Clinton supporters worried.

I'm not sure we can say anything about SC right now. A lot has happened since the last poll. Sanders and Clinton tied in Iowa. Sanders pulled to a tie nationally. Clinton shot herself in the foot by alianating women even more via sexist comments from her surrogates. Paul dropped out and many of his supporters flocked to Sanders immediately. Paul senior essentially endorsed Sanders. Sanders was endorsed by former NAACP president. Sanders dominated NH by double digits. And then there's the recent debate.

 

Any or all of that could affect the SC outcome. We have few polls and they're all old. Hopefully we will get a new poll after tonight and we can have a better idea of what we're looking at.

The results in NH are not that surprising. I saw an article just before by Slate about Bernie's win with the comment, 'That's a big freaking deal." I'm sorry, but no it freaking isn't. He was leading in polls by double digits going into it.

 

It's not going to be anywhere near as easy for Sanders to motivate people in states like SC as it was in Iowa (which tends to get the more ideological voters on either end) or in the NH primary, and all of the polls going in have Hillary pegged well above him. I doubt he's going to have a win there, though his numbers have been on the up and up.

I think its significance is somewhere in between. Hillary took NH handily last time. And even just a couple of months ago Hillary was predicted to take NH by a 30 point margin landslide.

[hypervalent_iodine]

 

i take your point and largely agree, though the idea of Bernie winning any state is a BFD when viewed in context of where he began as a largely unknown senator from Vermont.

 

That much is definitely true, but based on where of where we are now I just can't buy it as being that huge. Could I have predicted it a year ago? Nope. A few months ago? Probably. In any case, my point is that I don't think the win signals much about his future chances. I don't think he can motivate the right people in the right way to carry it through the rest of the primaries and get the nomination. Still, I'd be interested to see what a new poll looks like. The last one I saw was from the 23rd of Jan, and a bit has happened since then that might make Bernie's numbers improve.

 

As for the Republican side: I seem to recall a lot of them saying they would drop out should they not do well or win in NH. I suspect that after this week, the pool of candidates should be at least a little smaller than it was. It will be interesting to see the polls after that happens.

[iNow]

I agree that it's still too early to tell, but out of all the states SC is where I expected Hillary to be strongest.

 

Kasich still dominating 2nd place at 16%. Competing for 3rd are Cruz at 12%, Bush at 11%, Rubio at 10%. 35% of precincts reporting.

 

I'm anticipating Christie to withdraw after tonight, as NH is the basket into which he deposited all of his eggs.

[mp][/mp]

As for the Republican side: I seem to recall a lot of them saying they would drop out should they not do well or win in NH. I suspect that after this week, the pool of candidates should be at least a little smaller than it was. It will be interesting to see the polls after that happens.

 

I agree, though we are in a post-Citizens United world. Whereas in the past funding would dry up for those not placing well in IA or NH, now a single wealthy donor can keep a struggling campaign alive anonymously vis SuperPACs.

 

I see Fiorina, Carson, Christie, and any other "also-rans" like Jim Gilmore dropping out within the next 72 hours, but Bush, Rubio, and Cruz staying in no matter what the outcome of 2nd and 3rd place tonight since they're so well funded.

Edited February 10, 2016 by iNow

[hypervalent_iodine]

 

I see Fiorina, Carson, Christie, and any other "also-rans" like Jim Gilmore dropping out within the next 72 hours, but Bush, Rubio, and Cruz staying in no matter what the outcome of 2nd and 3rd place tonight since they're so well funded.

 

 

Those would be my three picks also. I for one am looking forward to less of all three of them, if nothing else. I was skeptical of Bush pulling enough votes for his team to justify going to South Carolina, but he's currently ahead of Rubio at 4th.

[iNow]

Bush will not, IMO, dropout until the very end unless he's being TOTALLY crushed (which is unlikely).

 

He's killing the donation numbers since his family is so well connected (he'd literally be the THIRD Bush presidency) and the people who support him are so wealthy and powerful and connected.

 

 

[ydoaPs]

Bush will not, IMO, dropout until the very end unless he's being TOTALLY crushed (which is unlikely).

 

He's killing the donation numbers since his family is so well connected (he'd literally be the THIRD Bush presidency) and the people who support him are so wealthy and powerful and connected.

 

 

What's the asterisk?

[iNow]

Kasich looks look a strong contender for 2nd. That'd be huge for him.

Huge, it was.

[mp][/mp]

What's the asterisk?

Unsure. Here's the source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html

[Willie71]

That much is definitely true, but based on where of where we are now I just can't buy it as being that huge. Could I have predicted it a year ago? Nope. A few months ago? Probably. In any case, my point is that I don't think the win signals much about his future chances. I don't think he can motivate the right people in the right way to carry it through the rest of the primaries and get the nomination. Still, I'd be interested to see what a new poll looks like. The last one I saw was from the 23rd of Jan, and a bit has happened since then that might make Bernie's numbers improve.

 

As for the Republican side: I seem to recall a lot of them saying they would drop out should they not do well or win in NH. I suspect that after this week, the pool of candidates should be at least a little smaller than it was. It will be interesting to see the polls after that happens.

 

This past week, Bernie has been polling nationally within a few points of Clinton, within the margin of error. She is still ahead by a thread. Individual states vary quite a bit, and Hillary is way ahead in SC. It's amazing considering there has been basically a media blackout on sanders to this point. His surge isn't surprising to those who follow non corporate media. If Bernie closes the gap in SC, it will be a very big deal.

[CharonY]

Well, looks like no delegates for Rubio, two each for Cruz and Bush, three for Kasich and 10 for Trump.

O'Malley got almost a third of a percent.

[iNow]

O'Malley got almost a third of a percent.

Interesting given that he formally conceded / dropped out after Iowa.

[CharonY]

And not doing that much worse either.

[iNow]

lol!

[imatfaal]

OK the question I want to have answered is how will the GOP jump

A. Get behind front runner Trump and blow the other candidates away

B. Focus on one of the three potential other real candidates (rubio/cruz/bush) and pressurize the other two and the also rans to get out quick. Thus allowing a single establishment candidate to use endorsements, huge funds, the frightening large power base, and friendly media to finally overhaul Trump

C. Sit with their thumbs up their arses whilst a destructive and bile-drenched internecine battle makes the whole lot of them look - amazingly - worse than they already appear

 

Nate is giving trump about 10% lead in SC (the average of his predictions against the average of the next highest runner) - and reckons that this corresponds to a 55% chance of a Trump win. Second would be a toss up between Rubio/Cruz. Bush would stick at 10-12%

Asterisk - in case any readers cannot go online

 

*Marco Rubio converted his Senate campaign committee into his presidential campaign, starting his run with several million in cash. That money is not included here

[CharonY]

Well, from what understand the GOP leadership dislikes Cruz and is more likely to go for Rubio (especially as he polls favorably against Clinton).

Edited February 10, 2016 by CharonY

[overtone]

OK the question I want to have answered is how will the GOP jump

"The GOP" created a core voter base immune to reason and coordinated by paranoia, bigotry, and an incoherent sense of grievance. It has two major (and partially overlapping) factions: the white Christian fundies, and the neo-Confederate racial bigots.

 

It's not going to "jump" under the direction of "the GOP".

 

And as far as South Carolina is concerned, "the GOP" can love them some Bush and Rubio all they want - this is what's playing in SC: http://driftglass.blogspot.com/2005/04/little-red-state-fundy-sez.html

 

 

 

One day we will have to explain to the children what happened when Thurston Howell III lost his right mind and decided that for the sake of some tax cuts to make him incrementally more comfortable, his very bestest buddies in the whole, wide world were the Ultra Right Wing Gorgons down in Jesusland.

Edited February 10, 2016 by overtone

[hypervalent_iodine]

Well, from what understand the GOP leadership dislikes Cruz and is more likely to go for Rubio (especially as he polls favorably against Clinton).

 

This is what I am getting as well. I think what they're waiting for is an "establishment" candidate that they can rally behind and for all the money to get funnelled into, but that isn't going to happen until more people get out of the way. Rubio seems to be the pick of the moment, but Kasich and Bush did rather well this primary and both seem intent on spending money to screw over Rubio. On the other hand, Rubio did not do as well as he probably needed to. Even if both were to get out of the way (and I agree with iNow that Bush probably won't), I wonder how he'll come out of it. Whatever the case, if someone doesn't budge soon, things are going to be interesting for the GOP.

[overtone]

 

 

This is what I am getting as well. I think what they're waiting for is an "establishment" candidate that they can rally behind and for all the money to get funnelled into, but that isn't going to happen until more people get out of the way.

They already picked one, and funneled big money into his campaign - Jeb. Getting the other candidates out of the way is what the money was supposed to do. They only started looking at Rubio in the first place because of that failure.

 

The fact that they have to wait until five or six other candidates get out of Jeb's way for him to even win a primary, is a measure of their role in managing the monster they've created.

[iNow]

On the democratic side, I'm curious to see what happens in Nevada and South Carolina, specifically among black and latino voters. This population is clearly becoming more open to and aware of Sanders than at any time before, but I'm not yet convinced it is happening in large enough numbers. That's a block of voters heavily in the Clinton camp... At least until he won NH. We'll see.

 

 

I'm anticipating Christie to withdraw after tonight, as NH is the basket into which he deposited all of his eggs.

(snip)

I see Fiorina, Carson, Christie, and any other "also-rans" like Jim Gilmore dropping out within the next 72 hours...

Christie and Fiorina have both dropped from the race. Carson interestingly shared with the media today that he's open to being Trumps VP, so perhaps some foreshadowing there that he's given up... Though he has not yet suspended his campaign even though he's been discounted as not viable already by most. Edited February 11, 2016 by iNow