Donald Trump

[neutrinosalad]

The reason Trump is polling so well is because he isn't a politician. And the reason why that is so important is because working class Republicans and the right wing of the party, have been told, repeatedly from all sources connected to that party, that what they truly need is someone who is not a politician and not connected to Washington. Trump merely tapped into their biggest fears and has told them what they truly want to hear. The fears that have been fed by that party for years now.

 

Trump, is, to put it bluntly, their chicken that has returned home to roost. He is the ungodly child that the ultra-conservative pundits and Tea Party supporters have been demanding to support their values. And the Republican Party did nothing to stem that flow or tide of sentiment over the last few decades. How can any of them truly be surprised that it has now come to this?

 

Bells, you should read my post above. I listed off a number of the "established elite" who are behind Marco Rubio's campaign and explained why you should not vote for an establishment candidate out of the Republican party. Namely they are a threat to any semblance of the idea one could have of moving towards a more peaceful world since the current established Republicans have a tunnel vision obsession with nation building in the Middle East. Even George W Bush earlier this week was talking about putting soldiers on the ground in the Middle East and expanding our military at a Jeb Bush rally.

 

If Trump represents ultra-conservative and libertarian (small government) values, why does he openly support Medicare and social security? Can you explain that?

[Bells]

 

Bells, you should read my post above. I listed off a number of the "established elite" who are behind Marco Rubio's campaign and explained why you should not vote for an establishment candidate out of the Republican party. Namely they are a threat to any semblance of the idea one could have of moving towards a more peaceful world since the current established Republicans have a tunnel vision obsession with nation building in the Middle East. Even George W Bush earlier this week was talking about putting soldiers on the ground in the Middle East and expanding our military at a Jeb Bush rally.

 

If Trump represents ultra-conservative and libertarian (small government) values, why does he openly support Medicare and social security? Can you explain that?

 

The only person who can explain Trump's beliefs is Trump. But there is something that perhaps, the Republicans have failed to take into account. Trump allegedly supports medicare and social security, because he probably recognised that so many Republican voters benefit from these policies and programs. You know, those grass roots right wing conservatives who worked in blue collar jobs, who were financially not in a position to save for their retirement so that they could be self funded retirees, or are facing that prospect in the future and who will need to rely on social benefits to see them through? Look at how Mike Huckabee sees it and what Trump has tapped into..

 

 

What will it take for Republicans in Washington to keep their promise to America’s seniors and keep their hands off Social Security and Medicare? Members of Congress and federal employees receive automatic pay raises each year, yet 70 million Americans will NOT receive a Social Security cost of living increase next year.

How is this right?

Sadly, the establishment elites treat Social Security and Medicare like WELFARE benefits. This is completely unacceptable, appalling, and flat-out wrong—these are EARNED benefits. Seniors are getting stabbed in the back while the Washington Republican establishment tells them it’s a back massage!

One of my fellow candidates has told Americans to “get over it” when it comes to cutting Social Security and Medicare. Another has proposed cutting benefits to current seniors, even those who worked more than 50 years paying into the system.

Social Security and Medicare aren't optional, they are mandatory programs. Washington forcibly confiscates money from every Americans' paycheck and promises it will be there when they retire. How can our government rob money from American workers for 40, 50, and 60 years and then refuse to keep its promise?

Like many other Americans, I’ve been paying into these programs since I was 14-years-old and started working for a paycheck. Sixty million Americans depend on Social Security, and almost 70 percent of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their income.

Most Republican candidates for president support cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

[...]

Washington has done enough lying and stealing. I refuse to let Washington swindle America’s seniors and sabotage Social Security and Medicare. After all, who’s to blame for the system's challenges, hardworking American beneficiaries or Congress?

If Washington lies, cheats, and steals benefits the American people were promised and forced to pay, then Washington politicians better be prepared to lose every single election.

Theft and deceit are NOT American values and most certainly NOT conservative principles. As president, I promise you will get what you paid for.

 

This ties in directly to what you were saying in post #10 in this thread. The white working class, are peeved that their tax dollars has benefited the so called "Washington elites" and the "establishment" politicians in the Republican Party and those same politicians are demanding that the pensions and benefits the white working class worked for, should be cut. And you ask why Trump is so popular even though he supports these programs?

 

The right of the right wing of the Republican Party are distinctly racist, hold views and opinions that make most people's hair curl in dismay. They have been repeatedly advised for years and years, that they should not support or vote for "establishment" or the "Washington elites". They are not wealthy, but instead pay their taxes, and expect to get something in return, by way of social security and pensions which they do not consider to be welfare. They rail against anyone who is on welfare, because they view welfare payments as being their tax dollars going to people they view as being lazy and/or black. This is what years of telling voters to not vote for establishment candidates and to not vote for politicians will result in and it has. Trump has tapped directly into their most racist heart, their most revolting parts of the human psyche, brought forth the fear that they have been fed for years from the Right and he has put it out there for all to see and they are lapping it up. And to top it off, they see him as recognising their hard work by not cutting their pension or social security, which they feel they are entitled to because they worked so hard for it.

 

The Republican Party created and allowed these horrific attitudes that Trump claims are his winning points. They allowed it to fester, they pandered to it and enabled it. Even when Trump's policies were being shouted about by the "party base", the very heart of the party who are now made up of the right wing fundamentalists, the Party itself did not try to distance themselves away. They sat on the fence, stated that they would support him if he won the nomination. This was their chance to clean out the party of people's beliefs that are detrimental to its very survival. The racists, bigoted right wing Christian fundamentalists who are intent on turning the US into a Christian utopia and all that entails. But they pandered some more. Trump has taken all of that and wrapped it up into one brightly tangerine package and they are unable to stop him. This is their creation. Kind of like Frankenstein's monster. And like Frankenstein, it could very well be their undoing.

 

And frankly, anyone who advocates for not voting for "establishment" candidates because they are politicians, is a part of the problem of what the Republican Party faces today and will face in the future. It is only enabling a further push to the ultra right and for the likes of Trump.

 

Why?

 

Because the very notion of a moderate is now a dirty notion in the Republican Party. They want their pensions, they want their social security, but they don't want Blacks or Hispanics to be able to access what they deem to be welfare or even something like food stamps, because they see themselves as being better than Blacks or Hispanics, they want the Government to manage their money better to suit their needs, they want their religious ideology to play a bigger role in the day to day running of the country and in the laws themselves, they want to be allowed to own as many guns as they want without restriction, they demand that women not be allowed to have abortions, they want migrants out and not be allowed to enter the country because 'dey took our juuuuubs'. Any candidate who does not follow these ideologies are not like them, would have to be part of the educated "elites" from Washington.

[DimaMazin]

 

BTW - in your liberal utopia a few hours ago they were cheering the burning of a hostel for asylum seekers and bystanders were preventing the fire-fighters from tackling the blaze.

UK doesn't need the asylum seekers. Germany too.

[overtone]

Trump is stuck at a third support. Rubio doesnt need 60%, he just needs a third and change.

Rubio needs to win more primaries than Trump wins from now on, to have a chance. He needs to win more primaries than Trump and Cruz combined, to have a decent chance. Actually win them - beat Cruz and Trump both, simultaneously. He needs that to have a good chance of overcoming Trump's lead in the delegates.

 

If he picks up every single one of Jeb's votes, and stalls there, he's sunk - and I privately suspect Clinton will get share of even them, in any State that allows crossover primary balloting.

 

He has to pick up close to 2/3 of Cruz's current support, on top of essentially all of everybody (nontrump) else's, to come out of the Convention with the nomination. And the fundies tend to be bigots - Rubio doesn't look as white as Cruz, and his religious affiliations are all over the place but highlighting Roman Catholic (which doesn't make him any more white). Plus he's kind of - how to put it - slow on the trigger. He's rated higher among people who haven't heard him talk much.

 

He's not the favorite, right now. And most of the primaries on Super Tuesday award delegates by district and statewide proportionately given normal vote totals, with fairly high cutoffs for winner take all - Rubio not only has to win them, he has to win them big enough and by district. If all he does is, say, invert the percentages by which Trump won SC in the five largest States, he'll come out of Super Tuesday still well behind in the delegate count. And if Trump does in Georgia and Tennessee what he did in South Carolina, takes Alaska by a good margin, comes in a strong second to Cruz in Texas, and holds in the high 20s% (finishing strong second at worst) everywhere else, he'll come out of that bad day for him with a delegate lead in the hundreds.

 

Even Betfair, a foreign site whose common member thinks Trump is some kind of American joke, has Trump over Rubio, and a better than 50% shot to win the nomination.

 

edit in: Saw something genuinely funny on CNN, right after they announced that Trump had received every single delegate from SC - all 50. The yakgroup around the format desk was weighing in with bafflement regarding Trumps popularity among the religious in SC, and then one said this, or words to this effect (going by memory on the quote):

 

"Now that Trump has established his credibility, we {the general news punditry} should probably start paying attention to his campaign."

 

No kidding. "Start" is a firm quote, as is "credibility". The rest of them nodded in agreement, and went on to matters of contention.

Edited February 22, 2016 by overtone

[imatfaal]

Trump is stuck at a third support. A third support doesn't win the nomination....

Trump is stuck at a third support. ..

 

 

 

Donald Trump

45.86%

33,727

 

Damn - I hope you are right about some of the other stuff.

 

The portion of the vote taken by the three front runners was higher than expected - and Rubio's gains were a larger proportion of his poll / previous standing than Trump; but more people switched to Trump and thus it didn't all flow to Rubio.

 

The three had <80% of the vote by the pollsters estimation and in previous contests - but received >90% of the vote in Nevada. The uplifts were about 7 / 5 / 2 for Trump / Rubio / Cruz - this is still good news for Rubio; but it will not lead to Cruz calling it a day nor will it lead to a failure of confidence in the Trump camp.

 

Cruz almost certainly cannot win - the electoral mathematics is against him; eg he will dominate Texas one of the biggest states - but only get about 30 more delegates than either Rubio or Trump. It comes down to which states have winner takes all and this does not favour Cruz at all. But from all accounts of his personality Cruz will not drop out to give Rubio an easy time with a quid pro quo being offered for his compliance - it is this intransigence and fanaticism which is what is scary about Cruz both to the world at large and the GOP grandees

 

[iNow]

I'm not yet convinced Cruz will do as well in Texas as people assume. State is becoming progressively more purple (less red, more blue) each successive election. Time will tell...

[imatfaal]

I'm not yet convinced Cruz will do as well in Texas as people assume. State is becoming progressively more purple (less red, more blue) each successive election. Time will tell...

 

Time will tell ... and bearing in mind it is 1042z I really hope you are in Europe or posting whilst awake with a young child rather than still up and obsessing about Nevada.

 

And whilst I hate to agree with overtone - I am really not sure that Rubio isn't my least favourite of the candidates; another docile neo-con puppet is not what your country needs

[Ten oz]

 

 

 

Donald Trump

45.86%

33,727

 

Damn - I hope you are right about some of the other stuff.

 

The portion of the vote taken by the three front runners was higher than expected - and Rubio's gains were a larger proportion of his poll / previous standing than Trump; but more people switched to Trump and thus it didn't all flow to Rubio.

 

The three had <80% of the vote by the pollsters estimation and in previous contests - but received >90% of the vote in Nevada. The uplifts were about 7 / 5 / 2 for Trump / Rubio / Cruz - this is still good news for Rubio; but it will not lead to Cruz calling it a day nor will it lead to a failure of confidence in the Trump camp.

 

Cruz almost certainly cannot win - the electoral mathematics is against him; eg he will dominate Texas one of the biggest states - but only get about 30 more delegates than either Rubio or Trump. It comes down to which states have winner takes all and this does not favour Cruz at all. But from all accounts of his personality Cruz will not drop out to give Rubio an easy time with a quid pro quo being offered for his compliance - it is this intransigence and fanaticism which is what is scary about Cruz both to the world at large and the GOP grandees

 

Rubio actually over performed in Nevada. Rubio never polled higher than 19% and was polling at 3rd in NV.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_republican_presidential_caucus-5336.html

 

That is the 3rd state in a row where Rubio over performed by 4-5 points. I doesn't get reported because the media is so hyper focused on all things Trump. End of the day this is about delegates. To win the Nomination 1,237 delegates are needed by the convention. Currently Trump has 79 delegates and Rubio has 15 delegates. Trump hasn't pulled away yet. Not by a long shot regardless of the headlines. I believe on March 1st things turn. So far it has been one small state at a time. That has given candates and the media the ability to bombard those states with coverage. Candates holding election day rallies and media doing specials and street interviews. Huge money spent per individual voter. Supertuesday is a different story. Everyone can't be every at once. I still believe Rubio wins GA, VA, MN and Cruz win TX. The stunner will be Rubio coming in Second in TX. By March 2nd Trump's slim delegate advantage will be gone.

 

All the races have a proportional delegate split from now to March 15. No one (Trump, Rubio, Cruz) can pull away. Once we hit the winner take all states is where it will gett interesting. If Rubio can win FL I don't think Trump has a path to 1,237.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Ten oz

[iNow]

Time will tell ... and bearing in mind it is 1042z I really hope you are in Europe or posting whilst awake with a young child rather than still up and obsessing about Nevada.

Will be in Europe in two weeks for work, but alas tonight my daughter is soundly sleeping and I'm just hanging out with my old friend, insomnia.

 

Trump got more votes than Rubio and Cruz combined. If he's not going to be the nominee, looks like brokered convention is the only way to prevent it. Rubio's ties to Wall Street and his appearance of being a puppet will likely be his biggest obstacle if he is appointed as candidate. #brokendemocracy

[imatfaal]

Not sure how to interpret this - but Trump got more votes in Nevada yesterday than were cast in 2012, and 50% more than Romney got in winning in 2008.

 

In general elections Democrats win when more people turn out to vote - I wonder if the parallel is that the non-traditional win in primaries when more people make the effort

[iNow]

[mp][/mp]

That is the 3rd state in a row where Rubio over performed by 4-5 points. I doesn't get reported because the media is so hyper focused on all things Trump.

This depends on which media sources one consumes, but agree that Trump hype has been high and challenged assumptions about the importance of media spending. See also: Jeb Bush who had to drop out despite spending more than most other campaigns combined.

 

Trump hasn't pulled away yet. Not by a long shot regardless of the headlines. I believe on March 1st things turn.

I used to feel this way, but I keep being proved wrong.

 

First, Trump insulted Mexicans calling them murderers and rapists. Then he insulted women and next suggested that an entirely valid debate question from Meagan Kelly was due to her having blood coming "out of her wherever." Then he insulted McCain and other war heroes by suggesting only losers get caught. Then he said Putin was a great guy, and that Muslims should be banned from entering the US, and now this week that we could stop ISIS by shooting them with bullets laced in pigs blood.

 

None if matters. It's classic Backfire Effect with his supporters. The more evidence that gets put against him, the deeper people dig in their heels in support and the parallels with the rise of the third reich are disturbing.

[imatfaal]

...

None if matters. It's classic Backfire Effect with his supporters. The more evidence that gets put against him, the deeper people dig in their heels in support and the parallels with the rise of the third reich are disturbing.

 

This is the bit I feel resonates. It is people saying to themselves that they won't be dictated to; even against their own best interests they will vote to defy conventional wisdom and to spite pundits. How long can it continue?

[iNow]

Hopefully, only through the primaries and not into the general election.

[overtone]

I believe on March 1st things turn. So far it has been one small state at a time. That has given candates and the media the ability to bombard those states with coverage. Candates holding election day rallies and media doing specials and street interviews. Huge money spent per individual voter.

Trump didn't do any of that in Nevada, and he spent less than half the money Rubio spent there.

 

Meanwhile Trump has a huge advantage if campaign time is limited in a given State, because he's been a regular on Republican TV in the Republican living rooms for years now. http://mediamatters.org/video/2016/02/22/newt-gingrich-you-could-say-that-trump-is-the-c/208720

 

Meanwhile, all the big States on Super Tuesday are proportional, either by State or by district, unless some candidate carries a landslide margin - the smallest cutoff is 50%. This situation is made to order for Trump.

 

I can't speak for the Southeast States, and anything including massive snowstorms can happen over the coming week, but note that not long ago Minnesota handed Jesse Ventura something like 40% of the vote in a general election, and regularly sends to Washington people like Michele Bachmann, Paul Wellstone, and Al Franken. People with mouths. Trump's discourtesy and vulgarity hurt him quite a bit, but when it comes to actually choosing Abe Lincoln isn't on the ballot.

 

Right now Rubio is polling very well in MN, but these same polls give him a nine point lead over Clinton head-up in the general, and that ain't happenin'. So there's something wrong with them. The press around MN is also fawning over Rubio, and the media is playing up his long list of endorsements in the State, but the press is despised by Republicans and the endorsements are from people like Tim Pawlenty who look good to people from other, distant States. (The local rightwing talk radio jocks gave Pawlenty the nick "One Term" when he was elected guv, and were only disappointed because a bunch of Blue Dog Dems crossed Party lines in the general).

 

So it's looking tough for the young man, despite the reassurances of the self-appointed flywheels in the punditry and poll jockeys. He can do it, but he might have to pick up a pair of glasses like Perry (and Franken, btw), get a new image. (Last time I saw him give a speech on TV, he was visibly dry in the mouth - wetting his lips, working up saliva - but there was no water glass visible. He may not be able to drink water in public any more - which may actually be a handicap)

Edited February 24, 2016 by overtone

[Ten oz]

@ overtone, Trump gets tons of free media. He doesn't need to spend money on ads. He is the headline across the board on every major media outlet. No amount of campaign spending can match what Trump is getting for free.

[dimreepr]

None if matters. It's classic Backfire Effect with his supporters. The more evidence that gets put against him, the deeper people dig in their heels in support and the parallels with the rise of the third reich are disturbing.

 

 

For the first time since I joined this forum Godwin’s law seems, not only relevant but, pertinent; the irony of the trial ‘Hubert Zafke’ is hard to ignore.

The fact that England will, almost certainly, remain an ally despite that is even more disturbing.

[waitforufo]

@ overtone, Trump gets tons of free media. He doesn't need to spend money on ads. He is the headline across the board on every major media outlet. No amount of campaign spending can match what Trump is getting for free.

The 24 hour news cycle has turned news in to entertainment making entertainment rules apply. In entertainment, the basic rule is that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Trump doesn't have to spend money. He just has to open his mouth and he dominates headlines and screen time. Then people want to be the first to hear his next outrageous comment so they start following and listening to him. If he is doing it on purpose, it's brilliant really. He caught a lot of flak for his time square shooting comment, but again he went up in the polls. Also, I think there is something to the PC backlash. People are tired of being sensitive and corrected so they love to hear someone say things and piss people off.

[Phi for All]

The 24 hour news cycle has turned news in to entertainment making entertainment rules apply. In entertainment, the basic rule is that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Trump doesn't have to spend money. He just has to open his mouth and he dominates headlines and screen time. Then people want to be the first to hear his next outrageous comment so they start following and listening to him. If he is doing it on purpose, it's brilliant really. He caught a lot of flak for his time square shooting comment, but again he went up in the polls. Also, I think there is something to the PC backlash. People are tired of being sensitive and corrected so they love to hear someone say things and piss people off.

 

So Trump is your guy?

[Willie71]

The 24 hour news cycle has turned news in to entertainment making entertainment rules apply. In entertainment, the basic rule is that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Trump doesn't have to spend money. He just has to open his mouth and he dominates headlines and screen time. Then people want to be the first to hear his next outrageous comment so they start following and listening to him. If he is doing it on purpose, it's brilliant really. He caught a lot of flak for his time square shooting comment, but again he went up in the polls. Also, I think there is something to the PC backlash. People are tired of being sensitive and corrected so they love to hear someone say things and piss people off.

 

The problem with the PC rhetoric is that the right see it to dismiss zenophobic and racist concerns, all the while being sensitive flowers bitching about the mean, unfair media.

 

Somehow, the irony is lost on the low information voters. Jimmy Dore said it well, The Trump supporters think the things Trump says, believing everyone thinks like them, but are being blocked by society from speaking the truth. They don't realize that they are racists and xenophobes, just that it isn't polite to talk about how inferior other people are.

[DimaMazin]

Arrived latinos like Trump because Trump doesn't like only arriving latinos. I hate Trump because he likes bad Russians.

I like cat when I don't see mice and how the cat catches them.

[waitforufo]

 

So Trump is your guy?

No, I would prefer to see John Kasich to win the Republican nomination but I don't think he has a chance. I would also like to see Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination. I prefer Bernie over Hillary because he is not a criminal.

 

The problem with the PC rhetoric is that the right see it to dismiss zenophobic and racist concerns, all the while being sensitive flowers bitching about the mean, unfair media.

 

Somehow, the irony is lost on the low information voters. Jimmy Dore said it well, The Trump supporters think the things Trump says, believing everyone thinks like them, but are being blocked by society from speaking the truth. They don't realize that they are racists and xenophobes, just that it isn't polite to talk about how inferior other people are.

Naw, that's not it. The PC fans are like having your mother kibitz on your conversation. Don't say butt say bottom dear. Don't say crap, say bowel movement or BM dear. It gets tiresome. Also it's not just conservatives, its also comedians who are almost all liberals. Many comedians are boycotting college campuses. Can't offend the poor little darlings with a joke.

[Phi for All]

No, I would prefer to see John Kasich to win the Republican nomination but I don't think he has a chance. I would also like to see Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination. I prefer Bernie over Hillary because he is not a criminal.

So if it comes down to Trump and Sanders, are you going to vote Party?

[waitforufo]

 

So if it comes down to Trump and Sanders, are you going to vote Party?

Yes.

You really think I'm going to vote for a socialist? I do. I don't get.

[Phi for All]

Yes.

 

You really think I'm going to vote for a socialist? I do. I don't get.

Did you vote for Ike?

[waitforufo]

Did you vote for Ike?

I'm not that old. My first vote was for Ford.

Too bad Ford didn't win. Iran would have a Shah, there would be piece in the Middle East, and more than a million fatalities would have been avoided. Perhaps more than to million by now and still counting. Instead we got Carter, who based his foreign policy on human rights. Yeah I know, good intentions. That's all that matters to liberals. Outcomes are a mere details.

 

But we digress. We were talking about Trump.