Donald Trump

[swansont]

Do you think it's because they are women?

 

 

I think it's an obvious explanation.

 

"Clinton, the first female candidate to seriously vie for the presidency, was called by her first name four times more than her 2008 Democratic rival Barack Obama, according to a study examining news coverage of the 2008 presidential race by University of Utah researchers published in the Political Research Quarterly. Male news anchors and reporters also dropped Clinton’s title of senator more than did female broadcasters, the document showed."

 

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article24782737.html

[Ten oz]

Do you think it's because they are women?

I think it could be. It is most definitely done as a way to disrespect her. I can't think of many politicians that are called by their first names respectfully. Perhaps "Teddy" for Ted Kennedy but that was seldom respectfully.

[StringJunky]

After thinking about it, that seems likely. Perhaps not fully intentionally....

Subconsciously, perhaps it's way of not putting women on too high a pedestal by familiarising their title using their first name. If you look historically, people of note are nearly always referred by their surname.

 

Edit: this tallies with ten oz's post.

Edited June 14, 2016 by StringJunky

[MigL]

Don't look at me...

I've always referred to her as H. Clinton.

And B.Sanders, B. Obama, D Trump, etc.

[iNow]

Donald's poll numbers are crashing hard and they're crashing fast. Wonder if the powers that be will use this as an opportunity to put someone other than Donald on the ticket at the GOP convention.

[MigL]

Good to see that people are finally realizing what an ass he is.

There are no other Republicans who have a chance at the presidency.

Maybe they'll take this opportunity to re-invent themselves.

[StringJunky]

Good to see that people are finally realizing what an ass he is.

There are no other Republicans who have a chance at the presidency.

Maybe they'll take this opportunity to re-invent themselves.

Yes, it's about time.

[CharonY]

With the tea party still around, I have my doubts.

[iNow]

This was recently shared with me and bears on my previous point:

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dozens-of-gop-delegates-launch-new-push-to-halt-donald-trump/ar-AAhe50u

Dozens of Republican convention delegates are hatching a new plan to block Donald Trump at this summers party meetings, in what has become the most organized effort so far to stop the businessman from becoming the GOP nominee.

(snip)

e last thing I would do is tell anybody to do something thats contrary to their conscience, Ryan said in an interview with NBCs Meet the Press airing on Sunday.

 

Ryan has endorsed Trump. But his use of the word conscience could prove helpful to delegates organizing the anti-Trump campaign because they are pushing to pass a conscience clause that would unbind delegates and allow them to vote for whomever they want.

Edited June 19, 2016 by iNow

[dimreepr]

This was recently shared with me and bears on my previous point:

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dozens-of-gop-delegates-launch-new-push-to-halt-donald-trump/ar-AAhe50u

 

 

Risky, if the Donald weathers the storm, then he gains huge momentum and then all bets are off.

Not to mention a broken party.

Edited June 19, 2016 by dimreepr

[Ten oz]

 

 

Risky, if the Donald weathers the storm, then he gains huge momentum and then all bets are off.

Not to mention a broken party.

Trump isn't going to win the general. If the give him the nomination or fight him and lose either way the the outcome in the general would be the same. At least by standing up to Trump many establishment Republicans can keep various relationships entacted by being able to go back to their districts and saying they tried to stop Trump. That may help some in local races with women's, immigrant, minority, law enforcment, and extra groups. Trump is sinking. May be better for many to cut themselves loose.

[Delta1212]

 

 

Risky, if the Donald weathers the storm, then he gains huge momentum and then all bets are off.

 

Not to mention a broken party.

A broken party is hardly going to help him, and I don't think managing to snag the nomination that you have already technically won but that your party is subsequently trying to block you from is going to provide him with momentum.

 

Drspite the saying, what doesn't kill you often makes you weaker. Challenging the presumptive nominee at the convention isn't going to be a win for him and provide him with a bigger push than he'd get if people simply rallied around him.

[iNow]

[swansont]

The Brexit vote mentality is a very plausible way for Trump to win. People voting to make a point, thinking that their vote doesn't count, and people not voting for similar reasons.

[DimaMazin]

The Brexit vote mentality is a very plausible way for Trump to win. People voting to make a point, thinking that their vote doesn't count, and people not voting for similar reasons.

And therefor Brexit is useful. Brexit is progressive economic blow against Trump's and Putin's economic sistem. Only politically it looks otherwise.

[Ten oz]

The Brexit vote mentality is a very plausible way for Trump to win. People voting to make a point, thinking that their vote doesn't count, and people not voting for similar reasons.

We (USA) are demographically different. Blacks make up 13%, Latinos 17% and Asians 6% of our population. Trump racist talking points ensures large majorities of all minority groups with be voting against him. Mitt Romney won 61% of the white vote in 2012 and lost the election by a few points. Due to how much worse Trump will do with minorities than even Romney did Trump will need to win something like 70% of the white vote which is something that simply hasn't been done and he currently isn't polling anywhere close to doing.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Ten oz

[swansont]

We (USA) are demographically different. Blacks make up 13%, Latinos 17% and Asians 6% of our population. Trump racist talking points ensures large majorities of all minority groups with be voting against him. Mitt Romney won 61% of the white vote in 2012 and lost the election by a few points. Due to how much worse Trump will do with minorities than even Romney did Trump will need to win something like 70% of the white vote which is something that simply hasn't been done and he currently isn't polling anywhere close to doing.

Of the ones who vote. What of the ones who stay home, because "Trump can't possibly win, so why bother? My vote doesn't count."? And "I'm a Bernie fan. He didn't get the nomination, so I won't vote/I'll vote for Trump (out of spite or to make some weird point)"?

 

Complacency was part of the Brexit vote, and it could just as damaging in this election. "Trump can't /won't win" shouldn't be the message. It needs to be "Trump can't be allowed to win".

 

And what about the new restrictive voting laws that are in play, because the voting rights act as been gutted?

 

[dimreepr]

A broken party is hardly going to help him, and I don't think managing to snag the nomination that you have already technically won but that your party is subsequently trying to block you from is going to provide him with momentum.

 

Drspite the saying, what doesn't kill you often makes you weaker. Challenging the presumptive nominee at the convention isn't going to be a win for him and provide him with a bigger push than he'd get if people simply rallied around him.

 

 

I said broken not dead, besides I'm British and just witnessed first hand how stupid can win votes.

There is literally nothing the leave campaign can deliver and still trade with the EU, the very definition of stupid but here we are.

Edited June 26, 2016 by dimreepr

[John Cuthber]

I'm afraid I haven't been keeping up with this thread, but I wondered if anyone had posted this Australian advert- I understand the American networks won't broadcast it in the land of the free.

http://www.ifyouonlynews.com/politics/aussies-slam-trump-so-hard-in-this-hysterical-ad-it-was-banned-in-the-us-video/

Edited June 26, 2016 by John Cuthber

[Ten oz]

Of the ones who vote. What of the ones who stay home, because "Trump can't possibly win, so why bother? My vote doesn't count."? And "I'm a Bernie fan. He didn't get the nomination, so I won't vote/I'll vote for Trump (out of spite or to make some weird point)"?

 

Complacency was part of the Brexit vote, and it could just as damaging in this election. "Trump can't /won't win" shouldn't be the message. It needs to be "Trump can't be allowed to win".

 

And what about the new restrictive voting laws that are in play, because the voting rights act as been gutted?

 

I think fear is making those concerns seem far more legitimate than they are. There is not a single poll out there amongst the nurmerous polls taken weekly showing Trump with an advantage.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

Clinton currenly is up an average of 6.7 points over Trump. That is double where Obama was over Romeny at this same time in 12'. Not just that but 6.7 points is a larger lead than Obama had over Romeny at any point after Romney became the presumptive nominee. * the graph in the link allows for a week by week look.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

Add to Trump's problems is that he doesn't have the support of traditional Republican donors. So his campaign doesn't have anywhere near the money that a presumptive nominee normally would at this stage. Voting ID laws and pother messures meant to manipulate the vote/turnout require staff on the ground petitioning courts, researching communities to isolate favorable neighbors, investing in local races to earn support of city and county boards who arrange polling stations, and etc. Trump does not have the money or staff to out perform Clinton at that level.

 

Having Trump close as he already is, the presumptive nominee, is shocking and scary but let not allow that fear to make of ignore the facts. Trump is currently doing poorly. Beyond the polling and money issues Trump has divided his own party. Is there any statistical information indicating Trump is doing well? If not than the concerns you listed are not currently showing themselves to be relevant. In my opinion treating Trump's chances of winning as being better than they are statistically showing to be only helps Trump. It adds legitimacy to his campaign. Bullies often succeed on reputation alone. Trump doesn't intimidate me. I believe the statistic information. It hasn't been wrong yet so why should I flip now?

What I am saying isn't a message. I do not work for a campaign or a specific party. I am not encouraging complacency. I am just saying what I believe. We can agree people still need to turn out. We can agree complacency is a terrible thing without boosting the bully up to be bigger and stronger than he is.

[imatfaal]

So multi-billionaire (!?) Donald Trump is now soliciting campaign funds from overseas politicians - surely that's illegal; can someone report him please. Lovely response from UK MP

 

[Delta1212]

Apparently, it's only illegal if he did it intentionally vs sending a blast email to everyone on a mailing list his campaign purchased. As long as he doesn't actually accept any donations from them, in the latter case, his campaign isn't breaking the law; it's just completely incompetent.

 

I think fear is making those concerns seem far more legitimate than they are. There is not a single poll out there amongst the nurmerous polls taken weekly showing Trump with an advantage.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

You just had to say that, didn't you? You post it and Rasmussen almost immediately starts taking a poll that puts Donald up by 4 points.

 

Granted, it's still the only one, Hillary's average across all recent polls is still over +4 and, again, it's a Rasmussen poll which pretty much means you have to assume it's giving an extra +5 to the Republican candidate based on it's historical error consistently trending in the same direction, but still.

[Ten oz]

Apparently, it's only illegal if he did it intentionally vs sending a blast email to everyone on a mailing list his campaign purchased. As long as he doesn't actually accept any donations from them, in the latter case, his campaign isn't breaking the law; it's just completely incompetent.

 

 

You just had to say that, didn't you? You post it and Rasmussen almost immediately starts taking a poll that puts Donald up by 4 points.

 

Granted, it's still the only one, Hillary's average across all recent polls is still over +4 and, again, it's a Rasmussen poll which pretty much means you have to assume it's giving an extra +5 to the Republican candidate based on it's historical error consistently trending in the same direction, but still.

IMO, constantly fretting about how Trump may win only bolsters his chances. His followers are macho, emotional, and very low information voters. Trump failed to get but 44% of Republican votes in the primary. That is worse than Romeny, McCain, Bush, Dole, and etc, etc. Yet Trump is able to incite dread in progressive which his supporters see as strength. It feeds his image and allows him to beat his chest. When the truth is Trump is doing historically bad. His numbers are some of the worst ever seen. Nixon is the last Republican to win the White House after only managing a little only 40% oin the primary and that was the year RFK was killed and the Democrats have a contested convention.

 

The sooner we progressives get our emotions under control (emotions about Sanders & Trump) to sooner we can deflate the emotions of low information conservatives we are currently wildly spun up. We can't be the adults in the room by allowing ourselves to join in on tantrum. Time to de-escalate some.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Ten oz

[iNow]

IMO, constantly fretting about how Trump may win only bolsters his chances. (snip) The sooner we progressives get our emotions under control (emotions about Sanders & Trump) to sooner we can deflate the emotions of low information conservatives we are currently wildly spun up.

Of course, the convention isn't until later this month so anything is still possible, but you've been downplaying Trump this whole thread and in the end you were simply wrong (many of us were, but not all of us were so consistent with the "pish posh, nothing to fear, folks, why all the hubbub" mentality you've had).

 

 

You on February 21:

Super Tuesday will be a bad night for Trump with Rubio winning GA and VA and Cruz TX (The 3 big ones). Trump is stuck at a third support. A third support doesn't win the nomination. (snip) My guess in that Trump has a bad showing on Super Tuesday and that will change the narative significantly.

You on February 24:

Trump hasn't pulled away yet. Not by a long shot regardless of the headlines. I believe on March 1st things turn. (snip) By March 2nd Trump's slim delegate advantage will be gone.

You on March 3:

He did not decimate his competition. Trump to day has only received 34% of total votes in the Republican primary. He only managed above 40% in 2 states and has not yet hit 50% or above in a single state. The majority of GOP voters are voting for someone else. (snip) I think we are headed toward a brokered convention.(snip) we are still weeks and months away from key states. Thus far Trumps advantage has primarily been in the south and eastern states (snip) I am still skeptical.

You on March 6:

Trump is leading overall but continues to underperform. (snip) His support simply isn't growing

You on March 9:

Trump hit his ceiling amongst Conservative voters months ago. He he leading in the primary but only doing so with support that is stuck in the mid 30's.

You on April 14:

This whole primary the media has been bad as I have ever seen. They kicked the year off declaering Trump the GOP nominee. They listed multiple precedents Trumps was said to have already achieved which assured he'd be the nominee. (snip) I have been pointing out for months that Trump was under performing his poll numbers, failing to win delegates at a good enough clip, and wasn't on pace to win the nomination.

You on April 18:

I think you are allowing your passion to get the better of you a bit. (snip) media coverage via cable news does not direct impact votes. If it did Trump would have already won the GOP nomination long ago. With the amount of coverage he gets he'd be unstoppable. Yet Trump is coming up short in the primary

You on April 19:

Same question for Trump. I have felt all along that Trump would fail to get the needed delegates

 

All I'm saying is that I encourage some reflection on where the electorate truly is right now and how big the risk truly is here (especially in light of the recent and incredibly unexpected Brexit vote where arguments similar to yours here were consistently made beforehand).

[StringJunky]

Of course, the convention isn't until later this month so anything is still possible, but you've been downplaying Trump this whole thread and in the end you were simply wrong (many of us were, but not all of us were so consistent with the "pish posh, nothing to fear, folks, why all the hubbub" mentality you've had).

 

 

You on February 21:

 

You on February 24:

 

You on March 3:

 

You on March 6:

 

You on March 9:

 

You on April 14:

 

You on April 18:

 

You on April 19:

 

 

All I'm saying is that I encourage some reflection on where the electorate truly is right now and how big the risk truly is here (especially in light of the recent and incredibly unexpected Brexit vote where arguments similar to yours here were consistently made beforehand).

Yes, shit can happen and there may well be a double facepalm and reciprocal commiserations to you from us in due course... when President Trump makes his inaugral speech. (sick bucket is on your left)