Brexit impact on science

[Prometheus]

In June the UK will vote on whether to leave the European Union (known to my chagrin as Brexit).

 

My intuition is that this will be bad for science in the UK in particular and Europe in general: collaborations between UK and European institutions will be that little harder, students mobility will be reduced and EU funding for UK universities will be lost.

 

What do you think? Are there any positives to science for leaving. Any negatives i've missed?

[DrP]

I am no authority on the subject and being honest... at the moment I would vote to stay in. However I am fearful of listening to too much fearmongering about this and that being ruined if we leave... there is no proof that we won't still uphold our good relations with the EU, no reason to suggest we won't still be able to exchange students and post docs (unless you have something other than reactionary outcries from uni staff). I hope it is just propaganda aimed at trying to get a no vote, because if we do leave, I would hope that cross collaborative research projects would continue in the same spirit that they have done over the past few decades.

 

Interesting times...

[Ophiolite]

One could argue that given the innate hostility of many politicians to science that leaving the EU would expose us to fewer politicians and would therefore be a good thing. Or one could argue that being part of the EU increases the opportunity to be part of major cross border research projects. One could argue anything and we shall see many people doing exactly that over the next four months.

[DrP]

I hear that - I think I might try to stay out of it... listen to a few argument summaries nearer the time and decide then... I think I know what side I am on though, although I feel for the nationalists a little, I don't think they really know what they are talking about though and are taking an awful risk in trying to leave. What ever happens though, I would hope that collabs between uni's and international post doc placings would be safe. Will sit and watch.

[dimreepr]

This is one of those “suck it and see questions” much like the Grexit question; although I feel the right answer maybe the antipode of each other.

 

 

Edit/ much like my prediction of the outcome.

Edited February 22, 2016 by dimreepr

[John Cuthber]

All the people that I have seen campaigning for an exit are self interested multimillionaires or "Little Englander" types and I'd not trust either further than I can spit.

 

Also I keep seeing things like this

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/cambridge-v-c-warns-brexit-would-isolate-uk-researchers/2019825.article

or this

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-would-harm-higher-education-and-research-universities-claim-10417379.html

and I rather suspect that these people have a better idea of what is good for science than, for example, Boris.

[iNow]

I would suspect that the relationships between universities and researchers in each of the various fields is rather independent from the relationship between the economies and the people in legislature across the EU. Is that a flawed assumption to make? Basically, beyond the potential of a few new travel restrictions / need for currency exchange will attending conferences, unsure why there would be any impact at all.

[Prometheus]

Well, UK universities receive about 15% of their funding from the EU. I've not heard if/how the UK plans to make up this shortfall. I have only heard of negative consequences for UK science, like those outlined in John's links. I have yet to hear of any benefits.

[Prometheus]

Also came across this. It seems the general desire among senior UK scientists is to stay in the EU.

[iNow]

I appreciated how this piece summarized the salient issues at play here:

 

http://www.voxeu.org/article/life-after-brexit-uk-s-options-outside-eu

In the event of Brexit, the UK and the EU would need to make decisions in five main areas. First, what happens to UK citizens and businesses resident in the EU and to EU citizens and businesses resident in the UK? Second, how would UK law be changed in areas covered by EU legislation? Third, what policies would the UK adopt in areas that currently fall under the authority of the EU. Of particular importance would be regional and agricultural policies since these are the biggest components of the EU budget. Fourth, would there be a transition period during which the UK’s rights and obligations as an EU member are gradually phased out or would the change happen abruptly? Fifth, and probably most importantly, what would be the future of Britain’s relationship with the EU. Would free trade between Britain and the EU continue? Would labour mobility between Britain and the EU continue? Would British companies continue to have the right to establish subsidiaries and do business in the EU?

 

The key trade-off Britain would face outside the EU would be the same trade-off that has always dominated Britain’s European policy. There are economic benefits from integration, but obtaining these benefits comes at the political cost of giving up sovereignty over certain decisions. Inside or outside the EU, this trade-off is inescapable. The different options described below provide alternative ways of resolving this trade-off.

[imatfaal]

I think a very large impact would be on the Union - not the new fangled European variety - the original one formed by the Act of Union of 1706/1707 between England and Scotland. Scotland voted to stay within the Union barely very recently and a move by the UK out of the EU would almost certainly herald unstoppable calls for a second referendum. This would be successful for the Independence campaign (obviously there is uncertainty but based on polls, personal knowledge, etc...). England without Scotland would become increasingly right-wing and London-centric, Wales and Northern Ireland would call for greater devolution from Westminster, the disparity between the South and North would be ever more marked.

 

There will not really be a UK outside the EU - if there is an exit then there won't be a UK for long after that

[Prometheus]

I agree, Scotland would be well within it's rights to demand another referendum given exiting the EU would drastically different from the context in which they recently voted.

 

I've always found it odd that some groups, like UKIP, that advocate exiting the EU often also wish for the UK to remain a union. They want independence for themselves, but are unwilling to grant it to others. I don't understand - is it a throw back to colonial days?

[imatfaal]

I agree, Scotland would be well within it's rights to demand another referendum given exiting the EU would drastically different from the context in which they recently voted.

 

I've always found it odd that some groups, like UKIP, that advocate exiting the EU often also wish for the UK to remain a union. They want independence for themselves, but are unwilling to grant it to others. I don't understand - is it a throw back to colonial days?

 

To an extent- but mainly it is just that UKIP are a bunch of ... (I don't want to be the first moderator to get suspended for foul language so I will stop there)

[dimreepr]

 

To an extent- but mainly it is just that UKIP are a bunch of ...

 

 

Trumps...

[John Cuthber]

If there's a "brexit" and if ( as seems quite reasonable) there's a consequent referendum on Scotland and Wales leaving the UK, please can we redefine the England / Scotland border somewhere near Birmingham?

 

It's important to remember that UKIP are broadly the UK equivalent of the tea party. One important similarity is utter disregard for facts.

 

On a related note I heard Ian Duncan-Smith (one of those who wants to leave (and is, coincidentally very rich)) being cited as saying that the whole discussion was based on the opposition running a "smear campaign" about the notion of leaving.

In doing so he was, of course, "smearing" those who ran that campaign. he failed to note any positive points about leaving the EU

 

I wonder how long it will take him to notice the hypocrisy.

[imatfaal]

If there's a "brexit" and if ( as seems quite reasonable) there's a consequent referendum on Scotland and Wales leaving the UK, please can we redefine the England / Scotland border somewhere near Birmingham?

 

...

 

Maybe all those adverts on the buses about the Republic of Yorkshire (John Smiths, Tetley?) from a while back will finally come to fruitition

[iNow]

Sharing this which popped into one of my feeds this morning.

 

http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-say-no-to-uk-exit-from-europe-in-nature-poll-1.19636?WT.mc_id=FBK_NA_1603_NEWSBREXITPOLL_PORTFOLIO

The charged question of whether the United Kingdom should stay in the European Union — to be put to a national referendum on 23 June — splits the general population almost evenly. But most scientists want the country to stay in, suggests a Nature poll of nearly 2,000 researchers living in the EU, both inside and outside the United Kingdom (see ‘Scientists speak on a Brexit’).

 

Most of the polled researchers also think that a British exit, or ‘Brexit’, would harm science in the nation and in the EU at large.

[imatfaal]

To be honest iNow you would struggle to find any large and representative group that did not split on broadly similar terms (I mean in reference to the benefit/cost of leaving) - however the overall question remains balanced. Similar to your situation in the republican primaries in which rationality and pragmatism seem to be taking a back seat to bigotry and popularism we have a scenario in which almost every interest group / business confederation / mainstream political party thinks that exit will be harmful in both short and long term - yet the plebiscite is balanced and one small incident at the time of the referendum could be enough to sway opinion towards exit.

[dimreepr]

Ultimately the question of brexit is ‘what we have now’ V ‘what we might have in the future’; impossible to answer, so emotion will sway opinion far more than logic, unfortunately.

[iNow]

Seems like that's always the dominant driver in politics, eh?

[Nouveau]

Seems like being asked to allow others to gamble with your future when you haven't been told or don't know the stakes. From what I've seen the Brexiters sole stratergy consists of this 'project fear' they keep mentioning and trying scare voters with immigration and the possibility of Turkey eventually joining the EU. Quite ironic if you consider the UK's exit might actually hasen Turkey's entry and UK citizens subsequently making a trade agreement that gives Turks the right to live and work there. The UK also has an ageing population that needs younger workers to financially support and help pay the pension oblegations to the old, what this means is that the whole suggestion of immigration reduction is a lie being sold to the xenaphobic. The reality being that immigration levels will remain consistent and only the nationalies perhaps changing.

 

As to control of borders one suspects it's more about the fear of people leaving rather than stopping people enter. If someone was thought to be dangerous or a threat they wouldn't be allowed entry whether they were EU citizens or not, the notion that the situation could magically change after a Brexit and that they would somehow know which immigrants are or arn't dangerous appears somewhat unlikely. What appears more likely is that, following an economic meltdown caused by affects of 1.5 trillion pounds of debt, millions of UK citizens would be prevented from the escape route of seeking affordable housing and employment in other European countries. The immigration door swings both ways.

 

This being said though from an entirely scientific standpoint it would a disaster for UK scientists and research because they would no longer be entitled to the reportedly 3 billion pounds a year they currently receive from the EU budget in research grants. Also it would make it much harder to work abroad on long term collaborative projects.

[CharonY]

Well, votes are still being counted but too close to call. Currently leaving has a small increasing lead of ~400k votes. Fear seems to work fairly well.

It seems that a Brexit has become the likelier outcome. What the heck, Brits?

 

So the UK is out. *sigh*

Edited June 24, 2016 by CharonY

[Prometheus]

Looks certain the UK will leave the EU.

 

If so I'm leaving the UK. Fortunately my wife is Australian so it won't be too hard for me.

[Klaynos]

Looks certain the UK will leave the EU.

 

If so I'm leaving the UK. Fortunately my wife is Australian so it won't be too hard for me.

It's a nonbinding referendum.

 

No one really knows what's going to happen now.

[Prometheus]

With a 72% turnout there is a strong mandate from the people to leave: no one could renege on that without significant upheaval.