Theory of Human Response to the Effects of Tectonic Stress

[studiot]

 

And I have ground investigations to attend to later this week

 

While you mention ground there was a question backalong about the geographic space compared for the riot and the earthquake.

 

Since neither are points in space their choice is enormously important so can you outline how this was done?

[Alan Watson]

Studiot

 

Please refer to my much earlier explanatory paragraph for Swansont about The New Geophysics.

 

Contemporary work by Crampin et al known as The New Geophysics has put forward an explanation for the difficulty most Conventional Sub-Critical Geophysics theories have for why high magnitude earthquakes can ever happen without breaking out into earlier low magnitude shocks. This recent model ( ie. The New Geophysics ) allows for tectonic stress accumulations over wide geographical / regional areas prior to earthquakes, which are neverthelss relatively local events.

 

The significance of this finding in our current context is that as tectonic stress accumulates over wide geographical areas, then so do the effects of tectonic stress.

 

This means that the incidence of a dataset of riots within a wide geographical area can be compared with the incidence of a dataset of earthquakes over the same wide geographical area. In this case England and Wales.

 

If you doubt whether this can be possible, then consider this: my statistical analysis has suggested a relation between riots and earthquakes over this wide area (please see my next post to help Swansont). This means that my work re-affirms the New Geophysics. If there was no New Geophysics then how would you explain the statistical significance in my data? The two theories are complimentary.

 

This is why I am saying that my work has important implications for the study of both Geoscience and Human Behaviour.

 

My mechanism is that one or more of the effects of tectonic stress has an influence on human behaviour. In this case I am only focussing on extreme behaviour (riots) but the implication is that the daily pertubations of our minds may equally, to some lesser degree be influenced by tectonic effects.

 

Returning to your request for an outline of how the geographical space was treated I trust you can now see that the 64 riots occurred in England and Wales between 1980 and 2012 and the 151 earthquakes occurred in England and Wales in the same period. I compared the timing of the 64 riots with the timing of the 151 earthquakes. Hopefully this will also help Swansont who is having trouble with the numbers of riots and earthquakes.

Hi Swansont

 

Allow me to point out that as there are 1,700 days ( i.e. 14% of the 11,773 day total study period ) in the 151 groups of 14 days before the 151 earthquakes, surely it is not a surprise that I am giving 9 ( ie. 14% of the total of 64 riots ) riots expected in those 1,700 days?

 

( If they were distributed by chance alone )

 

( which they are not )

 

A PDF is attached which presents the results of the 2 x 3 Chi Squared Test for Independence.

 

The null hypothesis was rejected because the Chi Squared Test Statistic is 14.77 which is substantially higher than the 9.21 required for an alpha level of 0.01.

Chi-Squared for Science Forum.pdf

[studiot]

 

If you doubt whether this can be possible,

 

It's a question of understanding, not doubt.

 

So if I understand you correctly you are taking instance of a quake in England & Wales, without further subdivision, and any occurrence of a riot in the same total area.

 

The UK has a substantially diagonally banded geological structure, running SW to NE.

 

So (and I don't know if the were any), a quake in Deal would be linked to a riot in Barrow-in furness if they fell with your selected time frame.

 

Such a link would cut directly across all those diagonals.

 

I don't know if the other diagonal would be more productive.

 

That is a quake in Penzance linking to another Jarrow riot.

[John Cuthber]

Swansont

 

Thank you for your continued interest.

 

Firstly, it is 9 riots to be expected in the 14 days before the earthquakes and 9 riots in the 14 days after the earthquakes.

 

64 riots taken in the study period, which to be precise now, starts on 18th December 1979 fourteen days before the first earthquake considered and ends on 11th March 2012, fourteen days after the last earthquake considered. ( I was writing my e-book in mid-2012 so that is where I drew the line ). This study period therefore covers 11,773 days - that is eleven thousand, seven hundred and seventy three days.

 

You have arrived at 858 bins by multiplying 33 years and 26 2-wk periods per year. So you mean there are 858 2-wk periods in 33 years. But that is not the number of 'bins'. I think by your 'bins' you actually mean the 14-day/2-wk periods before the 151 earthquakes. That might change your understanding of bins for your purposes to 151? But please consider the number of days in these 151 x 2-wk periods - it is not 151 x 14 because some earthquakes occur within 14 days of each other. By inspecting all the 151 earthquakes and reducing the total number of days to allow for the over-lap in the 'bins' where the earthquakes occur within 14 days of each other, the total number of days in the bins is 1,700. ( i.e. exactly 1,700 days - that is not an approximate figure ).

 

So the calculation is : 1,700 days in the bins divided by 11,733 days in the study period x 64 riots = 9.24, rounded down to 9 riots would be expected in the 14-day periods immediately before and after the earthquakes.

 

Is this starting to change your view of how you have treated the Standard Deviation in the first part of your query? The bins are actually quite narrow aren't they? What I am saying is if the 64 riots were randomly distributed across the 11,733 days you would expect 9 of those 64 to occur within the 14 days before and after any one of all the earthquakes by chance alone.

 

Continuing with your query, the 21 riots ( 16 before and 5 after ) are about 33% ( i.e. 32.8%) of the total of 64 riots in the period. So the total 'bin' for those 21 riots is 1,700 x 2 = 3,400 which is about 29% (i.e. 28.9%) of the 11,733 days in the study period.

 

Hopefully, this will maintain your interest? I really appreciate your thoughts on this and wish to get to the bottom of your concerns about the SD. Can I suggest you may be interested to know the statistics for the occurence of riots in any 14-day period across the earthquakes cycle. You may be puzzled by your 858 bins and why we seem to have such a small target. Please note the following additional explanation.

 

The relative timing of earthquakes has been studied in order to determine the number of riots which would be expected by chance. The expected average frequency of riots will increase anyway in the period leading up to earthquakes due to the effect of ‘overlap’ in the time periods. The total number of days in the T day periods immediately prior to N earthquakes is somewhat less than T x N because some earthquakes occur less than T days apart. This effect is lessened nearer to earthquakes as T approaches zero and overlap is less likely meaning that the chance of a riot in any given 14 day period increases nearer to the shocks. The 9 expected has allowed for this effect. There are long periods away from earthquakes where no riots occur. My study has also looked at the reduced risk of riots when more than 140 days has passed since the last earthquake. The effect is equally significant, as I have proven statistical significance in unexpectedly few riots >140 days prior to the earthquakes.

 

Kind regards

 

Alan

 

 

John

 

The Oxford Dictionary definition in this context is ' a disturbance of the peace by a crowd; an occurence of public disorder '.

 

I believe every entry in my list qualifies under that broad definition.

 

Equally, I fully understand your concerns about the definition, but please bear with me whilst I alert you to one or two facts.

 

The list of significant rioting and disorder shows that a substantial number of cases appear in clusters with a common initial cause. Dual studies have therefore included both a full appraisal of the cases including the tails of clusters as well as excluding the tails. One would imagine that copy-cat rioting in the tails of riot clusters would be influenced to a lesser extent by seismicity than might be the case for the initial onset of violence. The dual study therefore removes the uncertainties resulting from these potential effects. The outcome is that the case has been proven for both with tails and without tails of clusters.

 

I fully accept your concerns about football violence being organised. So the question needing an answer is : ' How many of the 16 riots potentially influenced by the effects of tectonic stress were football-related ? '

 

Answer : 2 (12.5% of the 16) potentially influenced by the effects of tectonic stress and 11 football-related riots in total ( 18% of the 64 ).

 

However, the 16 riots potentially influenced by tectonic stress are 25% of the total of 64.

 

This shows that football-related disorder is less likely to be influenced by the effects of tectonic stress than other types of riot. So your observations about football-related trouble are entirely consistent with the findings and conclusions of my study.

 

There was significant violence and 63 arrests at the G20 Summit disorder in April 2009 and I stand by my classification of that as a riot.

 

With regard to May Day violence I am sure you are aware that there have been May Day protests / demonstrations every year since 2000 but there aren't riots every year. Neither are there earthquakes of >2.5M_L every year within 14 days after May Day. Please consider that if there are a number of peaceful protests and the rare occurrences of violence happen to be prior to an equally rare earthquake that may suggest a tectonic influence.

 

Thank you for the Texas Sharp Shooter reference - if you can allow me to look into that I will get back to you with some comments. In the meantime look at my last post in answer to Swansont in case that sheds any more light for you.

 

Also, interested in your observations about Tories and New Labour! I'll look at that!

John

 

Following on from earlier, your Tory / New Labour analysis is broadly correct. However, this is a Science Forum and I don't wish this to degenerate into a political spat, so my suggestion would be to leave this to one side for now. The onset of public disorder is influenced by a number of factors as I have commented in earlier posts. This multiple contribution reality merely shows that there may be contributions from other factors not normally recognised, such as the effects of tectonic stress. Please be assured, the underlying tectonic influence is statistically recognisable irrespective of the multi-layered factors at other levels.

 

The coverage of rioting in England and Wales in my e-book looked at the relation between unemployment levels and riots in broad socio-economic terms. I chose to leave out the right / left divisions for the same reason I would rather leave this alone now. Basically, it is political dynamite.

Regarding the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, and in answer to both John and Klaynos, I have a mechanism and I hypothesised before gathering the data.

 

A TSF doesn't seem plausible. A suggestion that the 64 riots are an inadvertent sub-set of all the multitude of somethings out of everything that could happen shortly before earthquakes?

 

I could take Klaynos up on his challenge and repeat the test for a different geographical area. Not sure about France - will check it out.

 

Compiling the riot list may take a while.....................time for bed now though. And I have ground investigations to attend to later this week so there may be a lull in the posts over the next few days. Watch this space !

"The Oxford Dictionary definition in this context is ' a disturbance of the peace by a crowd; an occurence of public disorder '."

And thereby includes a Christmas carol concert as a riot.

I am now asking for a third time, how did you find your riots?

 

Also- there's no way to avoid politics in the issue of rioting.

[Alan Watson]

Hi Studiot

 

You are right to question the possibility of such large distances for your examples, but in the interests of transparency please see the attached PDF which lists the 16No riots within 14 days prior to earthquakes and additionally 3No further riots between 15 days and 21 days before earthquakes. The column headings should be self-explanatory except for the following :

 

DBNEQ is days before next earthquake

 

DALEQ is days after last earthquake

 

DANEQTNR is days after next earthquake to next later riot

 

The vast majority of examples are within about 160 miles, which is well within the maximum range postulated by The New Geophysics ( up to 1,000 miles ).

John,

 

I found my riots by negotiating a 4 day week with my employer for about a year and a half so that I could spend 20% of my working week undertaking thorough research into rioting in England and Wales, in particular between 1980 and 2012.

 

Naturally, that involved some online searches, but equally, I visited local libraries in certain cases to clarify local newspaper reports. I also had a certain amount of email correspondence with local history societies.

 

You should find that my list is the most comprehensive publically visible list ever compiled for the period in question.

 

If you doubt the validity of my list then you are quite welcome to suggest where it may be improved, but I have already answered your earlier riot queries in this regard.

 

Kind regards

 

Alan

Riots within 3 weeks of Earthquakes for Science Forum.pdf

[swansont]

Studiot

 

Hi Swansont

 

Allow me to point out that as there are 1,700 days ( i.e. 14% of the 11,773 day total study period ) in the 151 groups of 14 days before the 151 earthquakes, surely it is not a surprise that I am giving 9 ( ie. 14% of the total of 64 riots ) riots expected in those 1,700 days?

.

Oh, *That's* what you're calculating.

 

What are the size of the error bars on this prediction of 9 riots in this period of time?

 

I mean, you can do this with coin flips. You expect as many heads as tails, but in any 10-toss stretch, you can easily get 6 of one and 4 of the other. Or 7 and 3, somewhat less often, and 8-2 less often than that, etc. you only get 5H and 5T about a quarter of the time. 6H happens about 20% of the time. 7H is more than 10%.

 

So how do you conclude that the odds are less than 1% for your riots distribution?

[Alan Watson]

Swansont & Klaynos

 

The statistical test is attached to an earlier post. The test statistic indicates a significance level of 0.0006.

 

This is based on a 3x2 Chi Squared Test for Independence which rejected the null hypothesis.

 

The 2 is before and after earthquakes. The 3 is 0-14 days, 15-140 days and >140 days before and after earthquakes.

 

I have compared the expected and observed results and the test statistic is 14.77. ( 2 degrees of freedom ).

 

Klaynos

 

I have begun work on a France study. I have found Sismicite Historique de la France and I am in the process of requesting permission from BRGM, the French Geological Survey to use their database for what has now become an International Multi-Disciplinary Project.

 

Initial indications look quite promising as the first riot I have looked at is a cluster with an onset in Paris on 27th October 2005. There was an earthquake with an Epicentral Intensity of 5 on 31st October 2005 in Albertville. This is early days, but if I find the same outcome as the England and Wales study then this could be viewed as an independent verification.

 

Thanks for your suggestion - be aware you will have an acknowledgement on publication !

[John Cuthber]

 

John,

 

I found my riots by negotiating a 4 day week with my employer for about a year and a half so that I could spend 20% of my working week undertaking thorough research into rioting in England and Wales, in particular between 1980 and 2012.

 

 

I take it from your repeated refusal to explain your protocol that you know it is flawed and that you are trolling.

You have, practically speaking announced that you are either incompetent or dishonest and there is nothing more to say.

Unless, of course, you would like another go...

[Alan Watson]

John

I understand your concerns, but do you realise how much water it would take for the sea level to rise to the top of Mount Everest?

[John Cuthber]

John

I understand your concerns, but do you realise how much water it would take for the sea level to rise to the top of Mount Everest?

Yes.

Now can you answer the question?

How did you find your riots?

[Alan Watson]

 

J'ai cherché

 

[swansont]

I had a chance to peek at some of the supporting data here. The premise is that we can treat everything as random for the null hypothesis. However...

 

The first quake+riot is described as "Second wave of violence 3 weeks after earlier Toxteth incident" Doesn't sound like it's random. It's correlated with an earlier event.

 

The next two instances happen on the same day. Both are "Violence between striking miners and police", so the riots are correlated with each other. Even in the most generous treatment of this analysis, they should not be counted as separate incidents.

 

Further down: two instances of "Copycat disorder during weak economic conditions" More correlated events.

[studiot]

I note that Oban has suffered two earthquakes in the last week so I wonder what riots you will tie into these?

[John Cuthber]

Well, since the OP refuses to say how he got the data, I'm going to guess.

I imaging he got the data from someone like the BGS for the dates of the earthquakes.

http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/

then he looked at the newspapers for two weeks each side of the tremor for some sort of angry group.

When he found one he labelled it as a riot.

Then he did his analysis and found that every riot was within two weeks or a quake.

 

Just like the Texas sharpshooter.

 

Or maybe he didn't do that, but at least he now realises why he should have told us how he found the riots, and why "J'ai cherché " is the antithesis of science.

[studiot]

 

some sort of angry group

 

You can find one of those any week The House is in session, particularly on the day of PMQT.

 

[Alan Watson]

Now that we can all see the funny side of this, can I apologise for the J'ai Cherche, which I should point out was posted shortly after the French entry of the same name in the Eurovision song contest on Saturday night when I just could not resist the obvious correlations with the start of my France research. ( I'm good at noticing correlations).

 

But seriously, John, I have found 16No significant riots in the 14 days before earthquakes compared with only 5No significant riots in the 14 days after earthquakes.

 

I have published my list online and if anyone can find any significant riots which do not appear on the list then I would be pleased to add them to the data.

 

Naturally, John, if you can find another few significant riots in the 14 days after earthquakes so that the sea level can rise to the top of Mount Everest then I would happily admit that I am wrong. Maybe you have already found them! ( so long as they weren't at PMQT, or in Oban !)

 

I stand by my theory. The data may evolve, but the principle is sound. Humans are influenced by their dynamic planet.

 

It isn't exactly a surprise is it, that humans are influenced by their planet? I believe the real problem here is that modern day humans have forgotten their place in the overall scheme of things - they believe they are somehow completely independent thinking beings and 'better than' the systems that support their existence.

 

I understand fully the accusation of Texas Sharpshooter, but I believe that does not apply to the methods I have used. I certainly didn't approach it the way you have described, John.

 

Swansont - have you seen the earlier posts stating that I have carried out a dual study, one with the Tails of Clusters and one without. The outcome is the same - statsictical significance <1% probability of being wrong about a correlation. I have looked at the data all ends up and every time it stacks up. The most telling aspect of the correlation is that there are far fewer riots than expected when more than 140 days have passed since the last earthquake so not only are riots more likely to occur when tectonic stress is increasing, but they are far less likely to occur during times of seismic quiet.

 

Studiot - the 3No recent Oban quakes had magnitudes of between 1.3M_L and 1.9M_L so none of those would qualify for the list not only because they are less than 2.5M_L but they are not in England and Wales anyway ! I used a list of earthquakes that is considered complete which according to BGS applies to magnitude 2.5M_L + between 1980 and the present.

[studiot]

 

Alan Watson

Studiot - the 3No recent Oban quakes had magnitudes of between 1.3M_L and 1.9M_L so none of those would qualify for the list not only because they are less than 2.5M_L but they are not in England and Wales anyway ! I used a list of earthquakes that is considered complete which according to BGS applies to magnitude 2.5M_L + between 1980 and the present.

 

 

As as said backalong, your study is intriguing. My position is that at the moment I am reserving judgement as it is still incomplete.

The geographical limitations have already pointed out by others and I suggest that it is illogical to use the Scottish/English border as a cutoff.

However that is not a refutation, rather it provides opportunities to extend the study.

Also the test of the value of such is "Can this be used for prediction either in hindsight or into the future?"

That would be the logical next step and if the effect is repeated in other temporal and spatial domains it would greatly strengthen it.

[Alan Watson]

Studiot

Your supportive comments are greatly appreciated.

There are real difficulties, though, with extended boundaries, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the distances from quakes, over which increases in tectonic stress have been measured in boreholes, do have limits. For this reason alone, the proof of this theory will always be constrained by limitations on boundaries of study areas. England and Wales, I believe is happily convenient. The work I have begun on France has already realised difficulties with the land boundaries.

 

I should show you the following explanation of another pair of factors which lead to my decision to leave out Scotland.

 

'The UK can be divided into separate areas with somewhat different conditions of stress. England and Wales tend to be subject to compression of the rocks on a south-east to north-west orientation, whilst the northwestern part of Scotland is subject to compression on a roughly north to south axis with extension or tension east to west. This clear distinction is important in the selection of a study area because if there is a human response to tectonic stress then it would seem reasonable that the response will vary in different geographical regions depending on the general prevailing state of tectonic stress.

 

One observation, in the context of this particular study, related to the difference in state of stress between northwest Scotland compared with England and Wales is that the history of riots contrasts markedly between the two areas, with very few instances of riots in Scotland.

The Scotland First Minister, Alex Salmond’s comments following the August 2011 riots in England are interesting in this regard. The Daily Telegraph reported that

‘The Scottish First Minister said it was unfair of broadcasters to describe the lawlessness as “UK riots” because it was an English phenomenon and Scotland has “no history of this sort of disorder”. His officials contacted 24-hour news channels to demand they withdraw captions that used the UK term, with the BBC agreeing to replace it with “England riots”.’

It is true that there appears to be a virtual absence of significant riots and unrest in Scotland. It should, however, be recognized that there have been some instances of football related disorder in Scotland as well as prison riots.

 

I will persevere because I firmly believe one day it will be possible to make sense of this on a Worldwide scale. But that will be achieved by a series of smaller studies representing small pieces of the whole jigsaw picture.

 

My France riot list is gradually expanding. It is effectively progressive random sampling.

 

John's concerns about Texas Sharpshooting do revolve around the possibly erroneous assumption that the England and Wales riot list is far from complete. It may not be fully complete for what I am terming significant riots. But it may well be not far from complete. On that basis, there would be no doubt that there is some sort of correlation here. It is interesting that earlier on somebody's initial reaction to the 64 riots was that it was far too many, and far more than should be expected for England and Wales over a 32 year period! As my list gradually increased, I would periodically undertake the statistical test. In that way, as the progressive random sampling found it's way along the path to the truth, it was possible to develop an influence line of probability of the hypothesis being wrong. The probability never rose very much above negligible.

[John Cuthber]

 

 

I understand fully the accusation of Texas Sharpshooter, but I believe that does not apply to the methods I have used. I certainly didn't approach it the way you have described, John.

Since, even though I have explained why it's so important, you won't tell us what your approach t is, I presume that it's even more embarrassing than what I suggested.

Incidentally, how did you rule out tidal effects?

Edited May 24, 2016 by John Cuthber

[Alan Watson]

Significant rioting occurred at HMP Birmingham (England) on Friday 16th December 2016. The Prison Officers Association has described the disturbance as the worst since the Strangeways Riots of April 1990.

 

The Strangeways Riots had started the day before the Bishops Castle Earthquake, one of the highest magnitude earthquakes of the 20th Century.

 

The purpose of this post is that I wish to go on record as stating that there is a significant possibility of an Earthquake beneath the land area of England and Wales within 14 days after the HMP Birmingham Rioting. To be absolutely clear, this predicted Earthquake has a reasonable probability of exhibiting a Magnitude greater than 2.5M_L , will occur within the land area of England and Wales and more likely than not will strike before 30th December 2016.

[Ophiolite]

Significant rioting occurred at HMP Birmingham (England) on Friday 16th December 2016. The Prison Officers Association has described the disturbance as the worst since the Strangeways Riots of April 1990.

 

The Strangeways Riots had started the day before the Bishops Castle Earthquake, one of the highest magnitude earthquakes of the 20th Century.

 

The purpose of this post is that I wish to go on record as stating that there is a significant possibility of an Earthquake beneath the land area of England and Wales within 14 days after the HMP Birmingham Rioting. To be absolutely clear, this predicted Earthquake has a reasonable probability of exhibiting a Magnitude greater than 2.5M_L , will occur within the land area of England and Wales and more likely than not will strike before 30th December 2016.

For the record I find your hypothesis highly unlikely, but I do applaud your readiness to make a public prediction.

[Alan Watson]

Now that we can look back with hindsight and reference to the British Geological Survey Earthquake Bulletins for 2016 and 2017, these show a series of low magnitude quakes on consecutive days between 27th December 2016 and 3rd January 2017, culminating in a 3.8ML shock.

This suggests that the onset of the low magnitude quakes within 14 days of the Birmingham Prison Riots may have postponed the main shock until a short time after the typical 14 day timeframe.

Nevertheless, in my opinion it is highly likely that Tectonic Stress or the Effects of Tectonic Stress may have influenced the onset of violent disorder on

16th December 2016.