Airbrush

"In a cutting-edge development, that has sent shockwaves through the scientific community, researchers at University College London (UCL) have unveiled a radical theory that seeks to reconcile two pillars of modern physics – quantum mechanics and Einstein's general theory of relativity." Most of this is beyond me, but does anyone think this is a "cutting-edge development"? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/revolutionary-new-theory-finally-unites-quantum-mechanics-and-einstein-s-theory-of-general-relativity/ar-AA1sKLme?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8f705b996d7b40b5b2e77ece1cfecc61&ei=35#

Thanks for the advice. After a few days, ChatGPT is now allowing me to ask questions again. It is FREE, and I can ask it any question that has a generally accepted answer. Which version of AI do you consult with? How much does it charge you? How much does it charge?

Here is my question about polling. When pollsters call a phone number in households that are dominated by a male, does the subservient woman, who can also vote, in the house hand the phone to the man, because the man is in charge, so HE can answer the poll? The woman may be for Harris, but would not tell her husband that, out of fear, and plans to vote secretly for Harris, but she promises her domineering husband that she voted for Trump? Many of us thought Hillary Clinton was going to win, based on the polls, and were shocked that she didn't win.

I love Neil and have seen many episodes of "Startalk." Have you seen any of those? I also thought his Cosmos series was FANTASTIC and I was also a big fan of Carl Sagan's series.

After I discovered ChatGPT, I asked it a lot of questions, maybe 100, and it was interesting to see the answers, often in great detail, and most of it seems true. It's not perfect but can answer any simple question that has a generally accepted answer. Recently, ChatGPT stopped answering my questions. I know it cost to have unlimited access. I had a limit to how many questions I could ask in one day. But now days have gone by and ChatGPT continues to ignore me. Anyone know about ChatGPT?

Allan Lichtman still predicts a Harris victory. He is the only one who can describe a rational, fact-based, scientific method of predicting the US presidential election. He was correct in 9 of the last 10 elections.

I know you don't generally accept answers from ChatGPT, but how about this? I also asked ChatGPT what was the source of this information? "The estimated mass of the Milky Way’s CGM is roughly 10 billion to 100 billion solar masses (M☉). This estimate includes both ionized and neutral gas, as well as metals, which are heavier elements expelled from stars. A significant portion of the mass is in the form of hot, ionized gas that extends several hundred thousand light-years from the galaxy's center. The source of this information comes primarily from observations using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), specifically from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS), and X-ray telescopes like Chandra and XMM-Newton. These instruments allow astronomers to detect the presence of highly ionized gas in the CGM, by observing the absorption lines of elements like oxygen (O VI) in the spectra of background quasars and other bright objects. The mass estimates can vary due to uncertainties in modeling the distribution, temperature, and density of the gas, but the consensus places the CGM’s mass in this broad range. A 2020 study by the Hubble COS Halos program refined these estimates, indicating that the CGM could account for a significant fraction of the baryonic matter "missing" from earlier galaxy models." Does this help? Do you ever consult with AI?

Yes, that's the one! CGM "The Milky Way's CGM is a massive, extended halo of gas with a total mass of about 10 to 60 billion solar masses and extends up to 200,000 to 300,000 light-years from the galactic center." "The mass of stars in the Milky Way is roughly 60 billion to 100 billion solar masses. This includes all the stars in the Milky Way's disk, bulge, and stellar halo." "The Milky Way contains a significant amount of gas (both in the disk and in the circumgalactic medium), but this only contributes around 10 billion solar masses." These quotes I found are not consistent with "70% of the mass of a galaxy" is CGM. The Milky Way has far less mass in its' CGM, even less than the mass of the stars in our galaxy.

It's amazing and that is interesting because I never heard that 70% of matter that is not dark matter, is the CMG. That is all new to me. Why is the CMG never mentioned in discussions about dark matter? Neil de Grasse Tyson never mentioned it? It says that the CMG extends out 300,000 LY for a galaxy the size of the Milky Way. I guess 300,000 is a radial distance, compared to the edge of the Milky Way out to a radius of only about 50,000 LY? The CMG extends out 6 times as far and is 70% of the mass of the galaxy!

Suppose he had a 50% probability in one year. For 9 years: 50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.

Could you quote that from his published paper of Oct 2016? I can't find it. What octopus did you mention? I searched above and could not find it. Is there an octopus that correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections? No octopus lives 40 years. They live between 1 year and up to 5 years in captivity. You have not studied the model enough to know registrations do not matter. Lichtman never mentions that. I can tell you have not studied it. Anyhow, last night Lichtman pulled the trigger, before the debate, and said Harris would win. Let's see if he was wrong. He reminds me of the character Hari Seldon in the Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series of scifi stories "The premise of the stories is that in the waning days of a future Galactic Empire, the mathematician Hari Seldon devises the theory of psychohistory, a new and effective mathematics of sociology. Using statistical laws of mass action, it can predict the future of large populations." Foundation (book series) - Wikipedia Now it looks like the Dems may lose the Senate because John Tester's polls don't look good. Allen Lichtman has addressed your concerns and believes his model is not yet outdated.

Lichtman is firm that he did NOT predict the 2016 election on popular vote. He predicted it by his 13 Keys. His only mistake in predicting elections was 2000, when he predicted Gore would win. So, he correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections. 90% seems like a robust model. Voting registration is not a Key. That is why I lumped it under "Major Policy Changes" because it seems to me that young people registering in great numbers would do so based on their perception of Trump policies VS Biden policies, and they fear what may happen under Trump. His final prediction comes this week, earliest by today, and by Sunday at the latest. We will revisit this after the election!

You are correct, but that is not the point. In 2000, the electoral college diverged from the popular vote for the first time. "As a national system, the 13 Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes. However, only once in the last 125 years has the Electoral College vote diverged from the popular vote. That was in the disputed election of 2000, when Bush defeated Al Gore. Despite narrowly losing the popular vote, Bush won in the Electoral College by holding a 537-vote margin over Gore in Florida when the Supreme Court halted the recounting of ballots." Biden won the key "Major Policy Changes" as did Harris. You know that policies differ between Dems and GOP....MAJORLY. That is an easy Key for the Dems to win. So I don't understand your point.

I think the surge in voter registration would fall under Key #7 - Major Policy Changes. You see YOUTHS registering to vote because of their concern about "Major policy changes" (ban abortion, defund Ukraine, corp tax cuts, daily clown shows, etc, under TFG) which is a key in FAVOR of Harris winning the election. Lichtman has complained about a false entry in Wikipedia that he hasn't been able to remove, that makes it look like he did not predict the 2016 election, but he did predict a Trump victory. In the interview he said NOTHING about the popular vote. He also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Trump sent Lichtman a thank you note for predicting his win in 2016. He also predicted Gore won 2000, and Gore did win the popular vote by 540,000 votes, but the demographic changed at that time, so popular vote differed from the electoral college. At this moment Lichtman believes a lot would have to go wrong for Harris, for Harris to lose. Another key fell when Harris replaced Biden, and they lost the Incumbency Key. One more key would need to fall for Harris to lose. His final prediction will be next week! Here is his most recent post:

Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of ten consecutive elections, from 1984 to 2020. The 2020 election was special because Gore won the popular vote, but the election was decided by SCOTUS, electing Bush. In 2016 Lichtman switched from predicting popular vote to the electoral college vote. "Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcomes of each presidential election from 1984 to 2012. Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly based on the 13 keys, his 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost.[4][5][6][7] He switched to just predicting the winner across all publications after the 2016 election, stating recent demographics changes give Democrats an advantage in the popular vote in close elections, and correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election.[8][9] "Lichtman argues that the checklist's content and its track record of reliability prove that American voters select the next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If American voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or elect their party's nominee, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party." The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia